Will the Hist...a Ni_a Event__Xianghui FANG.pdf
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1、Will the Historic Southeasterly Wind over the Equatorial Pacificin March 2022 Trigger a Third-year La Nia Event?Xianghui FANG1,Fei ZHENG*2,3,Kexin LI2,Zeng-Zhen HU4,Hongli REN5,Jie WU6,Xingrong CHEN7,Weiren LAN8,Yuan YUAN6,Licheng FENG7,Qifa CAI8,and Jiang ZHU21Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic
2、Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China2International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China3Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorolog
3、ical Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China4Climate Prediction Center,NCEP/NWS/NOAA,College Park,MD 20740,USA5State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China6National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,Chi
4、na7National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China8Mailbox 5111,Beijing 100094,China(Received 25 May 2022;revised 15 June 2022;accepted 26 June 2022)ABSTRACTBased on the updates of the Climate Prediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IR
5、I)and the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMME)El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)Outlook issued in April2022,La Nia is favored to continue through the boreal summer and fall,indicating a high possibility of a three-year LaNia(202023).It would be the first three-year La Nia since the 19982001 event,which i
6、s the only observed three-yearLa Nia event since 1980.By examining the status of airsea fields over the tropical Pacific in March 2022,it can be seenthat while the thermocline depths were near average,the southeasterly wind stress was at its strongest since 1980.Here,based on a quaternary linear reg
7、ression model that includes various relevant airsea variables over the equatorial Pacific inMarch,we argue that the historic southeasterly winds over the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the emergence of thethird-year La Nia,and both the anomalous easterly and southerly wind stress components ar
8、e important and contribute50%of the third-year La Nia growth,respectively.Additionally,the possible global climate impacts of this event arediscussed.Key words:El Nio-Southern Oscillation,three-year La Nia,strongest southeasterly wind,airsea interactionCitation:Fang,X.-H.,and Coauthors,2023:Will the
9、 historic southeasterly wind over the equatorial Pacific in March 2022trigger a third-year La Nia event?Adv.Atmos.Sci.,40(1),613,https:/doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2147-6.El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is the largest interannual climate variability in the tropics.Although its evolutiontakes place i
10、n the tropical Pacific region,it has far-reaching impacts on climate and society around the world(McPhaden etal.,2006).Meanwhile,ENSO signals also provide very important information for other short-term climate predictions.There-fore,a successful ENSO forecast is of great importance.In fact,both sta
11、tistical and physical forecast models could successfullypredict ENSO evolution with lead times of 6 to 12 months by the late 20th century(Latif et al.,1994).Despite this progress,the complexity of ENSO has always been an important obstacle restricting ENSO forecasting(Zheng et al.,2016;Timmermannet
12、al.,2018;Fang and Xie,2020;Chen et al.,2022).ENSO exhibits a high degree of complexity both spatially and tempo-rally.For example,there are central Pacific(CP)and eastern Pacific(EP)types of El Nio(Ashok et al.,2007;Kao and Yu,*Corresponding author:Fei ZHENGEmail:ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,VOL
13、.40,JANUARY 2023,613 News&Views Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences,and Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany,part of Springer Nature 20232009),there are differences in amplitude and spatial asymmetry between El Nio and La Nia(An and Jin,2004),and LaNia events can s
14、pan two or three consecutive years(Hu et al.,2014;Zheng et al.,2015;DiNezio et al.,2017;Wu et al.,2021).These complexities undoubtedly bring significant challenges to simulating and predicting ENSO(DiNezio et al.,2017;Wu et al.,2021).By analyzing historical data,it has been noted that,compared with
15、El Nio,the complexity of La Nia is morereflected in time than space.For example,of the 16 La Nias that have occurred from 1980 to the present,13 have lastedfor at least two years,and 19982001 was a three-year La Nia event.Recently,202122 has been officially identified as aLa Nia year,which makes 202
16、022 a two-year La Nia event(Li et al.,2022).Furthermore,this La Nia did not quicklydecay after its peak.Instead,it persisted as a moderate La Nia and even recently rebounded.According to the latest ClimatePrediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IRI)ENSO Out
17、look issued in April2022 (Fig.1a;http:/iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/update.html),La Nia is favored to continue throughboreal summer(59%chance during JuneAugust 2022),with a 50%55%chance of continuing through fall.A similar advisory can also be found in the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMM
18、E;https:/cmdp.ncc- platform organized by the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administrationto release monthly forecasts from various ENSO forecast models in China since March 2020.The corresponding predictionsfor the same period are also shown in Fig.1b.It can be seen that there are
19、large differences among the models in CMME,inwhich both the intermediate coupled models(ICMs)and statistical models(SAMs)call for a La Nia advisory,the coupledgeneral circulation models(CGCMs)indicate a neutral state,and the hybrid dynamic and statistical models(HDSMs)predictan El Nio state.To sum u
20、p the predictions of the two platforms,it seems another three-year La Nia(202023)willemerge,being the first since 19982001.Based on an ENSO statistical forecast model,the possible reasons for this potentialLa Nia occurrence will be investigated.Another obstacle of ENSO prediction is the so-called sp
21、ring predictability barrier(SPB),i.e.,the prediction skill willdrop significantly when it strides over the spring regardless of when a prediction is made(Webster and Yang,1992;Mu etal.,2007;Zheng and Zhu,2010;Fang et al.,2019;Hu et al.,2019).In addition,another important feature associated withENSO
22、seasonal variation is seasonal phase locking,i.e.,ENSO events normally mature in winter and decay quickly in the fol-lowing spring.Using the empirical orthogonal function analysis method to quantitatively analyze this characteristic from1980 to 2018,Fang and Zheng(2021)pointed out that a typical ENS
23、O evolution can explain 90%of the total variance.Thecorresponding principal component is nearly identical to the OctoberDecember(OND)mean Nio-3.4(5S5N,170120W)sea surface temperature(SST)index.Thus,an accurate prediction of ENSO evolution can potentially be providedif the OND mean Nio-3.4 index is w
24、ell predicted(Fang and Mu,2018;Fang and Zheng,2021).Based on this hypothesis,Fang and Zheng(2021)explored the possibility of using March data to predict the subsequent ENSO evolution using a statisticalmodel,which can also quantitatively reflect the relative contributions of the predictors.In the pr
25、esent study,their modelwill be utilized to explore the important contribution of the historic southeasterly winds over the equatorial Pacific in March2022 to the possible third-year La Nia event.For this purpose,four physically oriented variables are used to establish the connection between the Marc
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