高密度沿海地区洪涝风险评价与适应性规划策略——以深圳湾地区为例.pdf
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1、2023年第4期/西部人居环境学刊/135高密度沿海地区洪涝风险评价与适应性规划策略*以深圳湾地区为例Flood Risk Assessment and Adaptive Planning Strategies in High-Density Coastal Areas:A Case Study of Shenzhen Bay Area陈碧琳 孙一民 李颖龙 CHEN Bilin,SUN Yimin,LI Ying longDOI:10.13791/ki.hsfwest.20230419陈碧琳,孙一民,李颖龙.高密度沿海地区洪涝风险评价与适应性规划策略以深圳湾地区为例J.西部人居环境学刊,20
2、23,38(4):135-143.CHEN B L,SUN Y M,LI Y L.Flood Risk Assessment and Adaptive Planning Strategies in High-Density Coastal Areas:A Case Study of Shenzhen Bay AreaJ.Journal of Human Settlements in West China,2023,38(4):135-143.摘 要:气候变化背景下,高密度沿海城市受到风暴潮和极端降雨引起的洪涝灾害冲击。文章基于韧性理论构建城市空间洪涝风险指标体系,制定该评价框架的实施路径;基于
3、水文软件Mike21、GIS平台及其空间网络分析插件sDNA,复合“天鸽”台风风暴潮与极端降雨情景,整合深圳湾地区的路网和土地利用进行危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和适应能力等多源数据;通过GIS栅格计算得到各要素层分析及洪涝风险评价可视化地图,结果显示,潮、洪、涝突破刚性标准加剧了 危险性,高密度城市环境增大了危险区域的暴露度,路网和土地利用布局具有一定脆弱性,需完善应急疏散和避难场所规划以增强适应能力;根据评价地图识别高风险片区,从路网和土地利用等城市空间物质要素出发,提出应对洪涝灾害的适应性规划策略。关键词:风暴潮;城市空间;洪涝风险评价;城市韧性;适应能力;深圳湾地区Abstract:In t
4、he context of climate change,high-density coastal cities are threatened by floods caused by storm surge and extreme rainfall.In order to enhance flood resilience of these cities,it is necessary to formulate adaptive urban planning responses to flood events.When making these responses,as complex dyna
5、mic systems,high-density coastal cities should not only consider the impact of multiple triggering agents including tide level,wind field and precipitation rate,but also need to understand the characteristics and damaged conditions of urban physical spatial elements which are exposed to flood risks.
6、Therefore,this paper attempts to establish theoretical connection between urban resilience and flood risk management,fill the gap of research on adaptive capacity of urban spatial elements which cope with flood risks caused by multiple triggering agents,build up an integrated flood risk predictive m
7、echanism with multi-source data,identify the scope and intensity of urban flood risks,and provide more accurate spatial informative feedbacks for decision makers,so as to put forward flood-adaptive urban planning strategies accordingly.Based on resilience theory,this paper constructs an urban spatia
8、l flood risk index system,adopts the flood risk analytical framework of hazard-exposure-vulnerability-adaptive capacity,sorts out the sub-indicators of this framework,and formulates flood risk assessment pathways according to scenario-based simulation and spatial metrology.Coupled inundation scenari
9、os of Typhoon Hato and extreme rainfall in Shenzhen Bay Area are illustrated,the spatial distribution and characteristics of road network and land use pattern of this area are identified,and the multi-source data of hazard,exposure,vulnerability and adaptive capacity are integrated,with the support
10、of Mike21,a two-dimensional hydrodynamic module of DHI software,crawler technology by python,GIS platform and sDNA,a spatial network analytical plug-in.With non-dimension of the above data,a visualized map is obtained by GIS grid computing to present the overall flood risk level in Shenzhen Bay Area
11、.Results demonstrate that:1)Tide,flood and waterlogging exacerbate flood hazard by exceeding rigid standards.Dense coastal areas of Shenzhen Bay are threatened by the high water level caused by storm surge,which verifies that it is difficult to deal with flood uncertainties only relying on high-stan
12、dard engineering means,while low-lying inner urban areas are affected by the long-term extreme rainstorms continuously with the failure of drainage system,which suggests that a more resilient measure of rainwater storage should be taken to alleviate waterlogging problems;2)High-density urban environ
13、ment intensifies flood exposure of the risking areas.Road network and urban functional configuration of Shenzhen Bay Area reflect a decentralized concentration pattern,with the high-density and high-cluster areas facing higher levels of flood hazard;3)Layouts of road network and land use are endowed
14、 with certain flood vulnerability in Shenzhen Bay Area.Problems such as discontinuous urban blue-green infrastructure system,high centrality and traffic dependence on the east-west arterial roads,and high vulnerability degree of land use pattern around high-hazard 中图分类号 TU984文献标识码 B文章编号 2095-6304(20
15、23)04-19-10 *华南理工大学亚热带建筑与城市科学全国重点实验室自主研究课题项目(2021202);华南理工大学亚热带建筑与城市科学全国重点实验室自主研究课题项目(2022KA01)作者简介陈碧琳:华南理工大学建筑学院,博士研究生孙一民(通讯作者):华南理工大学建筑学院,华南理工大学亚热带建筑与城市科学全国重点实验室,广东省可持续建筑与城市设计工程技术研究中心,教授,博士生导师,李颖龙:广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院,注册规划师ISSUE 4 Aug.2023/JOURNAL OF HUMAN SETTLEMNTS IN WEST CHINA/1360 引 言沿海城市是人口密集、社会经济
16、活动丰富的复杂动态系统,气候变化增加了海平面上升、风暴降雨增强及土地沉降等不确定因素1,日益加剧的洪涝风险给沿海城市带来极大威胁。沿海城市的洪涝类型分为风暴潮或地震导致的海岸洪水、超过河道荷载的河流洪水及极端暴雨引发的城市积涝2。其中,风暴潮洪水涉及潮位、风场和土地覆盖糙率等多致灾因子3。综合考虑多个致灾要素,进行沿海地区城市空间的洪涝风险评价,有助于识别城市空间洪涝风险的范围与强度,为决策者提供更精准的空间信息反馈,对保障人民生命财产安全、提升城市空间应对风暴潮洪涝灾害的韧性水平和适应能力具有积极的理论和现实作用。现有的洪涝风险评价研究渐成体系,多数研究以人口和经济4衡量单一致灾因子或承灾体
17、的洪涝风险。目前尚缺乏沿海高密度城市空间的实证探索,鲜有量化城市空间物理要素的风险评估。由于洪涝风险管理与城市空间理论联系不足,缺少洪涝灾害实证研究的风险数据支撑,难以采取相应规划干预手段提升城市空间的洪涝适应能力。因此,本文试图构建基于城市韧性与洪涝风险管理的理论联系与评估框架,展开深圳湾地区实证研究;选取1713号台风“天鸽”叠加天文大潮和24 h极端暴雨的复合情景,评价该地区城市空间洪涝风险等级和适应能力;识别洪涝风险特征,挖掘降低风险与提升适应能力的机会窗口,进而提出增强高密度沿海城市洪涝韧性的规划设计策略。1 文献回顾韧性理论将城市理解为复杂适应系统,通过风险预测和提供适应性解决方案
18、改进传统洪涝风险管理模式,提升城市的适应能力。基于韧性理论,具有高洪涝韧性的城市受极端洪涝事件影响较小,能及时有效地抵御、吸收和适应洪涝灾害的冲击,保护和恢复其基本结构和功能2。传统的风险管理方法着重抵御已知威胁;韧性风险管理则通过预测来适应潜在威胁,接受风险带来的不确定性和系统失效5。基于城市韧性的洪涝风险管理采取“危险性暴露度脆弱性”(hazard-exposure-vulnerability,简称HEV)分析框架6。危险性指灾害对人类、财产或环境造成的损害;暴露度指处在风险中的元素,包括道路、土地利用、建筑物等城市空间物质要素及社会-经济要素;脆弱性指不同灾害主体在给定灾害强度下所显示出
19、的特征和后果。风险(R,即risk)是危险性(H,即hazard)、暴露度(E,即exposure)和脆弱性(V,即vulnerability)的函数(式1),此函数得到发展并被引入适应能力(AC,即adaptive capacity)协同城市韧性与风险管理8(式2)。R1=H (E)V(1)R2=H E V/AC(2)目前大量基于HEV框架的研究结合水动力学模型、计算机科学与地理信息系统,复合考虑多致灾因子情况下灾害主体的复杂性。朗高(Longo)等以水动力数据为危险性因子,以建成区路网分布情况为暴露度因子,以路网和建筑物预期损失值为脆弱性因子,评估爱伦堡河流洪水风险9;吕海敏(Lyu)等模
20、拟广州地铁系统的暴雨淹没情景,计算降雨强度等危险性信息、地铁线网密度等暴露度信息、地铁线网接近度等脆弱性信息的总体内涝风险7。路网拓扑特性关系到城市要素的流动,土地利用类型和布局涉及社会经济要素的分配,两者的空间特征和结构分布会深刻影响洪涝风险的危险性、暴露度、脆弱性及城市应对风险的适应能力10。基于危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和适应能力选取二级指标,从而建立风险评价量化体系。洪涝危险性评估常用淹没范围和水深来区分危险性程度11-12。风暴潮的淹没范围和深度模拟涉及多个数据集,包括水深与陆地高程、areas have emerged;4)Urban flood evacuation and emer
21、gency shelters should be improved to enhance adaptive capacity with resilient planning and design interventions such as establishing an efficient street network and strengthening compact land use,so as to reduce flood risk level of coastal cities.According to the visualized map,areas of high flood r
22、isk are identified,and resilient planning strategies adaptive to flood disasters are put forward accordingly,with the regulation of urban physical spatial elements such as street network and land use:1)In high-hazard areas,a storm surge barrier combined with rigid and flexible infrastructural defens
23、e should be established for tide and flood problems,while a decentralized three-dimensional rainwater storage system is well-advised to be constructed to mitigate urban waterlogging;2)In high-exposure areas,for low-lying road systems,their ground elevation should be raised above the flood level or i
24、t would be better to construct three-dimensional pedestrian paths through vertical design as back-up traffic links;for intensified-developed urban blocks,modular design is suggested to optimize land use layout,which turns the modules impacted by flood events into flexible,multifunctional places;3)In
25、 high-vulnerability areas,it is proposed to upgrade ecosystem services for flood resilience by relinking blue-green system,strengthen redundancy by densifying street network and lowering centrality of the main roads,as well as fortify coastal land use regulation by controlling the disorderly develop
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