生成式AI:在创意中寻找竞争优势.pdf
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1、+GENERATIVE AI:Fall 2023For professional investors only.All investments involve risk,including possible loss of capital.OUTFRONTFINDING THE COMPETITIVE EDGE AMID CREATIVE DESTRUCTION2 GENERATIVE AI|PGIMThe rapid explosion of generative AI for general use has captured the global imagination with what
2、 the technology might enable.Its expected to have a profound impact on economic growth by exponentially increasing productivity.Thats because everything today from culture to consumer products is a product of intelligence.If the excitement around generative AI proves justified,it may unleash the big
3、gest wave yet of what Joseph Schumpeter,the famed Austrian economist,termed“creative destruction.”AI innovation will refresh the economy by destroying traditional businesses,replacing them with something more productive.For investors,though,the key question is:If generative AI chatbots quickly commo
4、ditize intelligence,where will competitive advantage lie in a world of endemic generative AI?Source:PwC,July 2023$15.7 TRILLIONTHE AMOUNT OF VALUE THAT GENERATIVE AI COULD ADD TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY BY 2030INTRODUCTIONCHAPTER 1 2023S AI RALLY ANTICIPATES A RAPIDLY APPROACHING FUTURE4 GENERATIVE AI|PG
5、IMCHAPTER 1 2023S AI RALLY ANTICIPATES A RAPIDLY APPROACHING FUTURE*Metas Threads microblogging app has since surpassed it by reaching 100 million users in five days.Accelerated Adoption-Number of Days to Reach 100 Million UsersDays to 1MDays to 10MDays to 100MNetflixTwitterFacebookInstagramChatGPT6
6、1854160819037337Source:Reuters,July 2023When ChatGPT-3,the first generative AI chatbot,was launched by Microsoft-backed OpenAI in November 2022,it quickly became the fastest-growing app ever,attracting an estimated 100 million users within two months.5 GENERATIVE AI|PGIMOpenAI expects this growth to
7、 drive rapid financial gains;in a 2022 pitch to its private investors,it estimated reaching$200 million of revenue in 2023,rising to$1 billion in 2024.With rapid adoption across sectors and use cases,the technology is improving exponentially faster at a rate not previously seen.Indeed,a new wave of
8、AI helpers,or agents,like the Microsoft 365 Copilot are being developed to perform complex personal and work tasks without needing close supervision.Source:Reuters,December 2022Source:Open AI 1,Feb.2019 2,Nov.2019 3,Sept.2020,Semafor,March 2023,Google,July 2023Rapid Growth of GPT ModelsParameters ar
9、e one of the defining characteristics of AI models.They determine how the model processes the data and how it generates predictions.6 GENERATIVE AI|PGIMSource:“GPT-4 Passes the Bar Exam,”Katz,Bommarito,Gao,Arredondo.March 2023 How GPT Models Performed on the Multiple-Choice Multistate Bar Examinatio
10、n(MBE)But rather than just incorporating more and more data,can generative AI autonomously outperform humans at the most economically valuable work,as outlined in the OpenAI charter?And when?Researchers have put GPT to the test,literally,to measure performance against prospective lawyers.Random Gues
11、singAverage MBE Passing RangeQ1 2019Q4 2022Q1 2023GPT=3.5GPT-4NCBE10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0%Correct RateStudent Avg.(NCBE BarNow)GPT-4ChatGPTGPT-3.5davinci001curie001babbage001ada001GPT-27 GENERATIVE AI|PGIMGenerative AI quickly became 2023s stock market sensation,sparking a huge rally mainly in the
12、 U.S.for shares in Microsoft and other tech companies poised to benefit.So,too,has the price of the Netherlands ASML,a leading supplier of the equipment needed for making the semiconductor chips that generative AI requires,as well as the price of Taiwan Semiconductor.Source:RefinitivFor illustration
13、 purpose only.All investments involve risk,including the possible loss of capital.For illustration purpose only.All investments involve risk,including the possible loss of capital.U.S.Tech Stock RallyDespite a bleak backdrop of rising interest rates and possible recession,the price of big U.S.tech c
14、ompanies leapt in the first six months of 2023.ASML Holding N.V.U.S.:NYSETaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.Ltd.ADRU.S.:NYSESource:Refinitiv$500$600$700$800Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Mar 23Feb 23Jan 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Mar 23Feb 23Jan 23Apr 23May 23$60$80$100$120$300$100$50008/25/2307/23/2306/
15、19/2305/17/2304/13/2303/11/2302/06/2301/03/23NVDAMSFTMETAAAPLAMZNGOOGORCL0$400$200Close Price8 GENERATIVE AI|PGIMBeyond the big tech companies,there are already signs of companies being disrupted.For instance,the share price of Chegg,the U.S.edtech company,has fallen by two thirds in the first six m
16、onths of 2023.THE RALLYS FLIPSIDEIt fell by 50%in one day during May after reporting a hit to its business from generative AI,as some students turned to chatbots for answers rather than subscribing to its services.Cheggs AI ReckoningU.S.:NYSESource:Refinitiv$18$6$300$24$1208/25/2307/23/2306/19/2305/
17、17/2304/13/2303/11/2302/06/2301/03/23For illustration purpose only.All investments involve risk,including the possible loss of capital.9 GENERATIVE AI|PGIMThe sectors most at risk of having work tasks automated could also be those most at risk of losing their competitive advantages.Source:Goldman Sa
18、chs GIR,April 2023Share of Industry Employment Exposed to Automation by AI in the U.S.That puts asset-light intelligence-based businesses like law firms,architecture and engineering at the top of the list,according to Goldman Sachs insights into where work is most likely to be automated.Similar busi
19、nesses to education technology such as translation and financial advice companies might also prove to be at risk.4644373635333231292828282726261912119641All industriesOffice&admin supportLegalArchitecture&engineeringLife,physical,social sciBusiness&financial opsCommunity&social serviceManagementSale
20、s&relatedComputer&mathematicalFarming,fishing,forestryProtective serviceHC practitioners&technicalEdu instruction&libraryHealthcare supportArt,dsgn,ent,sport,mediaPersonal care&serviceFood prep&serving Transport&material movingProductionConstruction&extractionInstallation,maint,repairBdg&grounds cle
21、an/maint10%20%30%40%50%0%CHAPTER 2 SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN AN AI WORLD11 GENERATIVE AI|PGIMCHAPTER 2 SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN AN AI WORLDIn a world where all businesses have access to generative AI,how do you sustain competitive advantage?The technology looks likely to disru
22、pt,or at least dilute,many existing economic moats the characteristics of a business that protect it from competition and maintain its profit margins.AI could reshape entire industries and create completely new ones.Some investors argue that the big tech companies generative AI models are becoming i
23、ncreasingly commoditized and may be outcompeted by smaller open-source models and the first quasi-autonomous agents may be developed by nimble start-ups.After all,the large language models used by chatbots like ChatGPT are available to everyone.In a generative AI world,two new sources of competitive
24、 advantage are emerging the quality of your data and the quality of your people,especially those with advanced AI skills.Turning first to data,long-term advantages can come from how a business fine-tunes its large language models.12 GENERATIVE AI|PGIMOne of the reasons that data is very critical to
25、artificial intelligence,and machine learning in general,is that the models themselves are useless without data.There are sometimes trillions of parameters that need to be estimated,and unless you have enough data to train the models,the output is not going to be useful at all.So data is really criti
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