重新想象非洲的经济增长.pdf
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1、June 2023Reimagining economic growth in AfricaTurning diversity into opportunityAuthorsMayowa KuyoroAcha LekeOlivia WhiteJonathan WoetzelKartik JayaramKendyll HicksEditorStephanie StromThe McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990.Our mission is to provide a fact base to aid decision making
2、on the economic and business issues most critical to the worlds companies and policy leaders.We benefit from the full range of McKinseys regional,sectoral,and functional knowledge,skills,and expertise,but editorial direction and decisions are solely the responsibility of MGI directors and partners.O
3、ur research is currently grouped into five major themes:Productivity and prosperity:Creating and harnessing the worlds assets most productively Resources of the world:Building,powering,and feeding the world sustainably Human potential:Maximizing and achieving the potential of human talent Global con
4、nections:Exploring how flows of goods,people,and ideas shape economies Technologies and markets of the future:Discussing the next big arenas of value and competitionWe aim for independent and fact-based research.None of our work is commissioned or funded by any business,government,or other instituti
5、on;we share our results publicly free of charge;and we are entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey.While we engage multiple distinguished external advisers to contribute to our work,the analyses presented in our publications are MGIs alone,and any errors are our own.You can find out more about M
6、GI and our research at Global InstituteMGI DirectorsSven Smit(chair)Chris BradleyKweilin EllingrudMarco PiccittoOlivia WhiteJonathan WoetzelMGI PartnersMichael ChuiMekala KrishnanAnu MadgavkarJan MischkeJeongmin SeongTilman TackeiMcKinsey Global Institute|Reimagining economic growth in Africa:Turnin
7、g diversity into opportunityContentsAt a glance iiiAfricas growth has downshifted since 2010,after a promising opening to the millennium 2There is no one Africathe continents recent slowdown masks divergence across countries 8Africa is the worlds fastest-urbanizing region but depends too heavily on
8、its primary cities 27Africas large companies have proven resilientand most have considerable unmet potential for growth 37Fostering productive growth in Africa:Opportunities for African businesses and governments 47Acknowledgments 51Bibliography 53iiMcKinsey Global Institute|Reimagining economic gro
9、wth in Africa:Turning diversity into opportunity Despite a promising start to the millennium,Africas long-term economic growth has been slow.The continent is home to the worlds youngest and fastest-growing population,but its economic performance has lagged behind.Since 1990,its GDP per capita has gr
10、own just 1 percent annually,compared with 5 percent in India and 8 percent in China.The 200010 decade saw an acceleration across much of the continent,but growth retreated in 201019.Productivity across all sectors of the African economy is lower than in comparable regions of the world.Despite a fund
11、amental shift to services,Africa could add$1.4 trillion to its economy,almost doubling the value added by services today,were it to match the productivity growth of Asias strongest services.Rekindling industrialization and increasing intracontinental trade will be crucial complements,together with b
12、oosting agricultural productivity to ensure the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of African farmers.Yet there is no“one Africa”nearly half of its people live in countries where economies have grown consistently over the past 20 years.Annual GDP growth in these primarily midsize economies in East
13、and West Africa has averaged more than 4 percent.The rest of the population lives in countries with slower growth,including the continents three largest economies,Egypt,Nigeria,and South Africa.Africa is the fastest-urbanizing place on earth,with more than 500 million people likely to leave the coun
14、tryside between now and 2040.Most will move to the continents largest cities,increasing the need for better infrastructure and more productive jobs to enable these migrants to thrive.Similar investment in smaller second cities could take the pressure off their larger cousins,spreading rising product
15、ivity and incomes more broadly.In Africa today,at least 345 companies have annual revenues of more than$1 billion.Their growth and performance are mixed,with some fast-growing stars and some shrinking laggards.By 2030,more than half of these companies could increase their collective annual revenues
16、of$1 trillion by more than$550 billion by accessing new markets and increasing productivity.Africa can reignite growth through improved productivity,drawing on insights from existing successes across its diverse countries,cities,and companies.Accelerating digitization,developing the continents talen
17、t,collaborating more regionally,investing in urban infrastructure,and growing more business champions are some of the ways Africa can increase productivity to support strong and sustainable growth.At a glanceiiiMcKinsey Global Institute|Reimagining economic growth in Africa:Turning diversity into op
18、portunityAfrica is home to the worlds youngest and fastest-growing population,burgeoning cities,and bold innovations in everything from fintech to clean energy.With its population expected to nearly double to 2.5 billion by 2050,the continent has myriad opportunities to harness its rich natural reso
19、urces and abundant human potential to increase economic growth and prosperity not only in Africa but around the globe.As the fastest-urbanizing region on the planet,it is an exciting new market for many companies.In an aging world,the continents young and fast-growing workforce represents a rich sou
20、rce of talent:some 796 million people will join the working population by 2050,and Africas workforce will soon be larger than Chinas or Indias.These strengths and assets present an opportunity for the continent to vastly improve its productivity and reverse the marked economic deceleration that it e
21、ndured between 2010 and 2019.GDP growth fell 35 percent over that periodand then the COVID-19 pandemic took hold.Today,60 percent of Africas population lives in poverty,the result of per capita income growth that has averaged just 1.1 percent a year since 1960.Yet the continent-wide statistics obscu
22、re successes in many of its constituent countries that,while uneven,can serve as models to establish productivity as the foundation of Africas economic growth,rather than the volatile commodities that have historically played that role.Over the past decade,certain countries,cities,and companies have
23、 been beacons of innovation,productivity,and growth.Their successes offer models and innovations that can reinvigorate economies in other African countries that have lacked sufficient growth to propel the 400 million Africans living in extreme poverty,as well as others who are less impoverished but
24、remain vulnerable,across the empowerment line.1Geographically,Africa is as large as China,Europe,India,and the United States combined,and its 54 countries vary dramatically in population,income level,and governance.Africa is also the most economically fragmented region in the world,and the divergent
25、 paths of development in each of its countries reflect this.2 Understanding and attending to that diversity of qualities and outcomes among its constituent countries are critical to any effort to rekindle productivity and growth across the continentthere is no“one Africa.”Mindful of the diversity of
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