康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究.pdf
《康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究.pdf(152页珍藏版)》请在咨信网上搜索。
1、摘要摘要最近三年以来,受中国经济结构调整、中美贸易战、人民币贬值和配资市场去杠 杆的影响,从2015年6月至2018年6月,上证指数下跌了 33%,但同期食品饮料板 块指数仍增长2%、恒生指数增长10%;在股票市场普遍低迷的同时,港股和食品饮料 板块成为了系统性风险的避风港。如果排除2015年4至6月疯牛行情的影响,以 2015年1月1日为基数计算,食品饮料板块指数三年半以来的累计涨幅为62%,年 复合增长率能达到15%o食品饮料指数之所以走势如此强劲,是因为行业中的一些龙 头企、也具备长期投资价值和成长潜力。按照价值投资的理念,这些在经济下行和通货 膨胀的双重压力之下仍能保持盈利和成长的企业
2、,无疑是投资者进行长期资产配置 可选择的最有价值的股票标的之一。本文根据价值投资的选股逻辑,在港股市场中选取食品饮料行业中的龙头企业 康师傅和达利进行实证研究。本文共分九章,第一章主要介绍研究的背景、研 究的主要问题和意义。第二章主要介绍食品饮料行业的定义和研究范围,并进行行业 分析。第三章主要介绍所评估的两家公司的基本情况。第四章主要对康师傅和达利的 资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表进行三维分析。第五章主要对康师傅和达利的财务 指标体系进行对比。第六章对五大财务指标的影响因素进行对比分析。第七章对两家 公司未来五年的销售和财务数据进行分析预测。第八章对两家公司进行估值,测算两 家公司股票的内在
3、价值。第九章对康师傅和达利的经营状况和发展前景进行总结评 价,并提出经营管理和股票投资的建议。本文通过财务分析发现:康师傅的竞争优势在于营运资金的使用效率较高,并且 能够借助规模优势实施OPM战略,保持较强的现金获取能力,但康师傅目前面临着 盈利能力和成长能力不足的困境。相对而言,达利旗下产品的竞争力较强,所以企业 的盈利能力和成长性较高,但近年来达利的营运资金周转效率和现金创造能力等指 标均出现下滑,这说明其在经营管理上尚有不足,对产业链上下游的议价能力有待加 强。本文通过行业前景和市场需求分析发现:一、方便面行业目前正处于产品市场生 命周期的衰退期,因而市场需求量正在萎缩。从未来五年发展趋
4、势来看,我们认为市 场增长的主要机会来源于高端方便面和非油炸的健康方便面的推广;同时由于行业 康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究整体不景气,将迫使其他中小竞争者退出市场,可能会为行业中的巨头企业进一步扩 大市场份额带来机会。二、软饮料行业目前正处于产品市场生命周期的成熟期,因而 市场需求量增速放缓。从未来五年发展趋势来看,我们认为市场发展的主要机会来源 于瓶装水、咖啡和功能饮料等品类需求量的增长;同时由于占市场总需求量比重较高 的碳酸饮料、茶饮料和果汁饮料均出现增速放缓的情况,因此将对以这三类饮料业务 为主的企业产生较大影响。三、面包糕饼行业目前正处于产品市场生命周期的成长 期,因而市场需求
5、量增速较快。从未来五年发展趋势来看,我们认为市场未来的增长 机会将来自于对中、短保质期面包和糕点的需求增加和价格普遍上涨。四、膨化食品 行业目前正处于产品市场生命周期的成熟期,因而市场需求量增速较慢。从未来五年 发展趋势来看,我们认为市场增长的主要机会将来自于电商等新渠道的开发。本文通过估值分析发现:从市盈率指标上看,康师傅目前的股票价格相对较高,且由于公司收益缺乏成长性,预计未来五年其股票价格将呈逐年下降的趋势。与之相 比,达利目前的股价与股票内在价值较为吻合,且达利的收益成长性较高,预计股价 将随之呈逐年上升趋势,因此我们认为达利股票的投资价值高于康师傅。本文的主要观点及建议:达利以产品创
6、新驱动的商业模式,在盈利能力、创值能 力、成长能力以及风险控制能力上要优于康师傅。而康师傅以成本和规模为主导的商 业模式,在产品差异化和消费多元化的市场变革中,已渐现落伍之势,需要在公司发 展战略和竞争战略上做出重大调整。对于康师傅而言,鉴于公司目前处于EVA损值 状态,我们认为其应执行更为积极的投资政策,开拓新的相关业务领域以改善方便面 业务收益下滑的局势。在筹资政策方面,考虑到康师傅目前自我可持续发展能力不足 且负债率已经较高的情况,我们建议康师傅可以借助收购兼并的机会,进一步增资扩 股,以获取新增投资所需的资金。对于达利而言,我们认为其应加快对商超、电商和 餐饮连锁等零售终端的渗透步伐,
7、以摆脱对经销商的过分依赖;同时,通过进一步扩 大业务规模,提高对上游供应商的议价能力,以实施OPM战略获取营运资金。在筹 资政策方面,考虑到企业目前负债率较低,我们建议达利可以通过发行长期公司债券 进行筹资,以优化资本结构、降低资金成本。关键词:食品饮料行业;自由现金流;财务战略矩阵IIAbstractAbstractI n the last three years,affected by Chinas economic restructuring,the China vs USA trade war,the depreciation of the RMB and the deleveragi
8、ng of the allocation market,from June 2015 to June 2018,the Shanghai Stock Exchange I ndex has fallen by 33 cents.However,the food and beverage industry index still increased by 2%,while the Hang Seng index increased by 10%during the same period.At the same time as the stock market was generally dep
9、ressed,Hong Kong stocks and food and beverage sectors became a safe haven fbr systemic risk.Excluding the April-June mad cow market in 2015,the food and beverage industry index has risen by 62 percent over the past three and a half years,with an annual composite growth rate of 15 percent,based on Ja
10、nuary 1,2015.The food and beverage index are so strong because some of the industrys leading companies have long-term investment value and growth potential.According to the concept of value investment,these enterprises,which can maintain profit and growth despite the double pressure of economic down
11、turn and inflation,are undoubtedly one of the most valuable stock targets that investors can choose fbr long-term asset allocation.According to the logic of stock selection of value investment,this paper selects the leading enterprises in food and beverage industry in Hong Kong stock market-Master K
12、ong and Dali to carry on the empirical research.This paper is divided into nine chapters.The first chapter mainly introduces the background,main problems and significance of the research.The second chapter mainly introduces the definition and research scope of food and beverage industry,and carries
13、on the industry analysis.The third chapter mainly introduces the basic situation of the two companies assessed.The fourth chapter mainly analyzes the balance sheet,profit statement and cash flow statement of Master Kong and Daly.The fifth chapter mainly compares the financial index system of Master
14、Kong and Dali.Chapter six makes a comparative analysis of the influencing factors of the five major financial indicators.Chapter 7 analyzes and forecasts the sales and financial data of the two companies in the next five years.Chapter 8 evaluates the two companies and estimates the intrinsic value o
15、f the two companies*shares.Chapter 9 summarizes and evaluates the management and development prospects of Master Kong and Daii,and puts forward some suggestions on management and stock investment.Through financial analysis,this paper finds that the competitive advantage of Master Kong lies in the hi
16、gh efficiency of using working capital,and the ability to implement OPM strategy with the help of scale advantage,and to maintain strong cash acq uisition ability.in康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究However,Master Kong is currently facing the plight of insufficient profitability and growth capacity.Dalis products a
17、re relatively competitive,so their profitability and growth are relatively high.However,in recent years,Dalis working capital turnover efficiency and cash creation capacity have declined.This shows that there are still deficiencies in management,and the bargaining power of the upper and lower reache
18、s of the industrial chain needs to be strengthened.Based on the analysis of industry prospect and market demand,this paper finds that:first,the instant noodle industry is in the decline period of product market life cycle at present,so the market demand is shrinking.From the development trend in the
19、 next five years,we believe that the main opportunities for market growth come from the promotion of high-end instant noodles and non-fried healthy instant noodles;At the same time,due to the overall downturn in the industry,will force other small and medium-sized competitors out of the market,which
20、 may provide opportunities for the industrys giants to further expand their market share.Second,the soft drink industry is now in the mature period of product market life cycle,so the growth of market demand is slowing.Looking at the trend in the next five years,we believe that the main opportunity
21、for market development is the increase in demand fbr bottled water,coffee and functional drinks.At the same time,the growth rate of carbonated beverages,tea drinks and juice drinks,which account fbr a high proportion of the total market demand,will have a great impact on the enterprises with these t
22、hree kinds of beverage business.Thirdly,the analysis of bakery industry shows that the industry is in the growing period of product market life cycle at present,so the market demand increases rapidly.Looking at the trend over the next five,years,we believe that the markets future growth opportunitie
23、s will come from increased demand fbr medium-to-short shelflife bread and cakes and a general rise in prices.Fourth,the expanded food industry is in the mature stage of product market life cycle,so the growth of market demand is slow.Looking at the trends over the next five years,we believe that the
24、 main opportunities fbr market growth will come from the development of new channels such as e-commerce.Based on the valuation analysis,it is found that the stock price of Master Kong is relatively high from the point of view of price-earnings ratio,and the stock price is expected to decrease year b
25、y year in the next five years due to the lack of growth of the companys income.I n contrast,Dalis current stock price is more consistent with the intrinsic value of the stock,and Dalis earnings growth is high,with which the stock price is expected to rise year by year,so we think that the investment
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 康师傅 财务 分析 股票 研究
1、咨信平台为文档C2C交易模式,即用户上传的文档直接被用户下载,收益归上传人(含作者)所有;本站仅是提供信息存储空间和展示预览,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对上载内容不做任何修改或编辑。所展示的作品文档包括内容和图片全部来源于网络用户和作者上传投稿,我们不确定上传用户享有完全著作权,根据《信息网络传播权保护条例》,如果侵犯了您的版权、权益或隐私,请联系我们,核实后会尽快下架及时删除,并可随时和客服了解处理情况,尊重保护知识产权我们共同努力。
2、文档的总页数、文档格式和文档大小以系统显示为准(内容中显示的页数不一定正确),网站客服只以系统显示的页数、文件格式、文档大小作为仲裁依据,平台无法对文档的真实性、完整性、权威性、准确性、专业性及其观点立场做任何保证或承诺,下载前须认真查看,确认无误后再购买,务必慎重购买;若有违法违纪将进行移交司法处理,若涉侵权平台将进行基本处罚并下架。
3、本站所有内容均由用户上传,付费前请自行鉴别,如您付费,意味着您已接受本站规则且自行承担风险,本站不进行额外附加服务,虚拟产品一经售出概不退款(未进行购买下载可退充值款),文档一经付费(服务费)、不意味着购买了该文档的版权,仅供个人/单位学习、研究之用,不得用于商业用途,未经授权,严禁复制、发行、汇编、翻译或者网络传播等,侵权必究。
4、如你看到网页展示的文档有www.zixin.com.cn水印,是因预览和防盗链等技术需要对页面进行转换压缩成图而已,我们并不对上传的文档进行任何编辑或修改,文档下载后都不会有水印标识(原文档上传前个别存留的除外),下载后原文更清晰;试题试卷类文档,如果标题没有明确说明有答案则都视为没有答案,请知晓;PPT和DOC文档可被视为“模板”,允许上传人保留章节、目录结构的情况下删减部份的内容;PDF文档不管是原文档转换或图片扫描而得,本站不作要求视为允许,下载前自行私信或留言给上传者【曲****】。
5、本文档所展示的图片、画像、字体、音乐的版权可能需版权方额外授权,请谨慎使用;网站提供的党政主题相关内容(国旗、国徽、党徽--等)目的在于配合国家政策宣传,仅限个人学习分享使用,禁止用于任何广告和商用目的。
6、文档遇到问题,请及时私信或留言给本站上传会员【曲****】,需本站解决可联系【 微信客服】、【 QQ客服】,若有其他问题请点击或扫码反馈【 服务填表】;文档侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权、侵犯人身权等,请点击“【 版权申诉】”(推荐),意见反馈和侵权处理邮箱:1219186828@qq.com;也可以拔打客服电话:4008-655-100;投诉/维权电话:4009-655-100。