康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究.pdf

摘要摘要最近三年以来，受中国经济结构调整、中美贸易战、人民币贬值和配资市场去杠 杆的影响，从2015年6月至2018年6月，上证指数下跌了 33%,但同期食品饮料板 块指数仍增长2%、恒生指数增长10%；在股票市场普遍低迷的同时，港股和食品饮料 板块成为了系统性风险的避风港。如果排除2015年4至6月疯牛行情的影响，以 2015年1月1日为基数计算，食品饮料板块指数三年半以来的累计涨幅为62%,年 复合增长率能达到15%o食品饮料指数之所以走势如此强劲，是因为行业中的一些龙 头企、也具备长期投资价值和成长潜力。按照价值投资的理念，这些在经济下行和通货 膨胀的双重压力之下仍能保持盈利和成长的企业，无疑是投资者进行长期资产配置 可选择的最有价值的股票标的之一。本文根据价值投资的选股逻辑，在港股市场中选取食品饮料行业中的龙头企业 康师傅和达利进行实证研究。本文共分九章，第一章主要介绍研究的背景、研 究的主要问题和意义。第二章主要介绍食品饮料行业的定义和研究范围，并进行行业 分析。第三章主要介绍所评估的两家公司的基本情况。第四章主要对康师傅和达利的 资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表进行三维分析。第五章主要对康师傅和达利的财务 指标体系进行对比。第六章对五大财务指标的影响因素进行对比分析。第七章对两家 公司未来五年的销售和财务数据进行分析预测。第八章对两家公司进行估值，测算两 家公司股票的内在价值。第九章对康师傅和达利的经营状况和发展前景进行总结评 价，并提出经营管理和股票投资的建议。本文通过财务分析发现：康师傅的竞争优势在于营运资金的使用效率较高，并且 能够借助规模优势实施OPM战略，保持较强的现金获取能力，但康师傅目前面临着 盈利能力和成长能力不足的困境。相对而言，达利旗下产品的竞争力较强，所以企业 的盈利能力和成长性较高，但近年来达利的营运资金周转效率和现金创造能力等指 标均出现下滑，这说明其在经营管理上尚有不足，对产业链上下游的议价能力有待加 强。本文通过行业前景和市场需求分析发现：一、方便面行业目前正处于产品市场生 命周期的衰退期，因而市场需求量正在萎缩。从未来五年发展趋势来看，我们认为市 场增长的主要机会来源于高端方便面和非油炸的健康方便面的推广；同时由于行业 康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究整体不景气，将迫使其他中小竞争者退出市场，可能会为行业中的巨头企业进一步扩 大市场份额带来机会。二、软饮料行业目前正处于产品市场生命周期的成熟期，因而 市场需求量增速放缓。从未来五年发展趋势来看，我们认为市场发展的主要机会来源 于瓶装水、咖啡和功能饮料等品类需求量的增长；同时由于占市场总需求量比重较高 的碳酸饮料、茶饮料和果汁饮料均出现增速放缓的情况，因此将对以这三类饮料业务 为主的企业产生较大影响。三、面包糕饼行业目前正处于产品市场生命周期的成长 期，因而市场需求量增速较快。从未来五年发展趋势来看，我们认为市场未来的增长 机会将来自于对中、短保质期面包和糕点的需求增加和价格普遍上涨。四、膨化食品 行业目前正处于产品市场生命周期的成熟期，因而市场需求量增速较慢。从未来五年 发展趋势来看，我们认为市场增长的主要机会将来自于电商等新渠道的开发。本文通过估值分析发现：从市盈率指标上看，康师傅目前的股票价格相对较高，且由于公司收益缺乏成长性，预计未来五年其股票价格将呈逐年下降的趋势。与之相 比，达利目前的股价与股票内在价值较为吻合，且达利的收益成长性较高，预计股价 将随之呈逐年上升趋势，因此我们认为达利股票的投资价值高于康师傅。本文的主要观点及建议：达利以产品创新驱动的商业模式，在盈利能力、创值能 力、成长能力以及风险控制能力上要优于康师傅。而康师傅以成本和规模为主导的商 业模式，在产品差异化和消费多元化的市场变革中，已渐现落伍之势，需要在公司发 展战略和竞争战略上做出重大调整。对于康师傅而言，鉴于公司目前处于EVA损值 状态，我们认为其应执行更为积极的投资政策，开拓新的相关业务领域以改善方便面 业务收益下滑的局势。在筹资政策方面，考虑到康师傅目前自我可持续发展能力不足 且负债率已经较高的情况，我们建议康师傅可以借助收购兼并的机会，进一步增资扩 股，以获取新增投资所需的资金。对于达利而言，我们认为其应加快对商超、电商和 餐饮连锁等零售终端的渗透步伐，以摆脱对经销商的过分依赖；同时，通过进一步扩 大业务规模，提高对上游供应商的议价能力，以实施OPM战略获取营运资金。在筹 资政策方面，考虑到企业目前负债率较低，我们建议达利可以通过发行长期公司债券 进行筹资，以优化资本结构、降低资金成本。关键词：食品饮料行业；自由现金流；财务战略矩阵IIAbstractAbstractI n the last three years,affected by Chinas economic restructuring,the China vs USA trade war,the depreciation of the RMB and the deleveraging of the allocation market,from June 2015 to June 2018,the Shanghai Stock Exchange I ndex has fallen by 33 cents.However,the food and beverage industry index still increased by 2%,while the Hang Seng index increased by 10%during the same period.At the same time as the stock market was generally depressed,Hong Kong stocks and food and beverage sectors became a safe haven fbr systemic risk.Excluding the April-June mad cow market in 2015,the food and beverage industry index has risen by 62 percent over the past three and a half years,with an annual composite growth rate of 15 percent,based on January 1,2015.The food and beverage index are so strong because some of the industrys leading companies have long-term investment value and growth potential.According to the concept of value investment,these enterprises,which can maintain profit and growth despite the double pressure of economic downturn and inflation,are undoubtedly one of the most valuable stock targets that investors can choose fbr long-term asset allocation.According to the logic of stock selection of value investment,this paper selects the leading enterprises in food and beverage industry in Hong Kong stock market-Master Kong and Dali to carry on the empirical research.This paper is divided into nine chapters.The first chapter mainly introduces the background,main problems and significance of the research.The second chapter mainly introduces the definition and research scope of food and beverage industry,and carries on the industry analysis.The third chapter mainly introduces the basic situation of the two companies assessed.The fourth chapter mainly analyzes the balance sheet,profit statement and cash flow statement of Master Kong and Daly.The fifth chapter mainly compares the financial index system of Master Kong and Dali.Chapter six makes a comparative analysis of the influencing factors of the five major financial indicators.Chapter 7 analyzes and forecasts the sales and financial data of the two companies in the next five years.Chapter 8 evaluates the two companies and estimates the intrinsic value of the two companies*shares.Chapter 9 summarizes and evaluates the management and development prospects of Master Kong and Daii,and puts forward some suggestions on management and stock investment.Through financial analysis,this paper finds that the competitive advantage of Master Kong lies in the high efficiency of using working capital,and the ability to implement OPM strategy with the help of scale advantage,and to maintain strong cash acq uisition ability.in康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究However,Master Kong is currently facing the plight of insufficient profitability and growth capacity.Dalis products are relatively competitive,so their profitability and growth are relatively high.However,in recent years,Dalis working capital turnover efficiency and cash creation capacity have declined.This shows that there are still deficiencies in management,and the bargaining power of the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain needs to be strengthened.Based on the analysis of industry prospect and market demand,this paper finds that:first,the instant noodle industry is in the decline period of product market life cycle at present,so the market demand is shrinking.From the development trend in the next five years,we believe that the main opportunities for market growth come from the promotion of high-end instant noodles and non-fried healthy instant noodles;At the same time,due to the overall downturn in the industry,will force other small and medium-sized competitors out of the market,which may provide opportunities for the industrys giants to further expand their market share.Second,the soft drink industry is now in the mature period of product market life cycle,so the growth of market demand is slowing.Looking at the trend in the next five years,we believe that the main opportunity for market development is the increase in demand fbr bottled water,coffee and functional drinks.At the same time,the growth rate of carbonated beverages,tea drinks and juice drinks,which account fbr a high proportion of the total market demand,will have a great impact on the enterprises with these three kinds of beverage business.Thirdly,the analysis of bakery industry shows that the industry is in the growing period of product market life cycle at present,so the market demand increases rapidly.Looking at the trend over the next five,years,we believe that the markets future growth opportunities will come from increased demand fbr medium-to-short shelflife bread and cakes and a general rise in prices.Fourth,the expanded food industry is in the mature stage of product market life cycle,so the growth of market demand is slow.Looking at the trends over the next five years,we believe that the main opportunities fbr market growth will come from the development of new channels such as e-commerce.Based on the valuation analysis,it is found that the stock price of Master Kong is relatively high from the point of view of price-earnings ratio,and the stock price is expected to decrease year by year in the next five years due to the lack of growth of the companys income.I n contrast,Dalis current stock price is more consistent with the intrinsic value of the stock,and Dalis earnings growth is high,with which the stock price is expected to rise year by year,so we think that the investment value of Dalis stock is higher than MasterIVAbstractKongs.The main points and suggestions of this paper are as follows:Dalis business model driven by product innovation is superior to Master Kong in profitability,value creation,growth and risk control.I n the market reform of product differentiation and consumption diversification,Master Kongs business model,which is dominated by cost and scale,has gradually become out of date,and needs to make major adjustments in the development strategy and competition strategy of the company.For Master Kong,given that the company is currently in a state of EVA loss,we believe it should implement a more aggressive investment policy to open up new related areas of business to improve the decline in instant noodle revenue.I n terms of financing policy,considering the fact that Master Kongs ability to sustain selfdevelopment is insufficient and the debt ratio is already high,we suggest that Master Kong can take advantage of the opportunity of acq uisition and merger to further increase his capital and expand his shares.To get the money needed for new investments.For Dali,we think that it should speed up the penetration of retail terminals such as Chao,e-commerce and restaurant chains,in order to get rid of excessive dependence on dealers;At the same time,through the further expansion of business scale,improve the bargaining power of upstream suppliers,to implement the OPM strategy to obtain working capital.I n the aspect of financing policy,considering the low debt ratio at present,we suggest that Daly can raise funds by issuing long-term corporate bonds in order to optimize capital structure and reduce the cost of capital.Keywords:Food and Beverage I ndustry;Free Cash flow;Financial Strategy Matrixv目录目录第一章研究概述.1第一节研究背景.1一、香港股票市场的投资价值.1二、食品饮料行业的投资价值.3第二节研究的主要问题和意义.4一、研究的主要问题.4二、研究的意义.6第三节研究思路与框架.7第二章食品饮料行业概况分析.9第一节食品饮料行业的现状及研究范围定义.9第二节 食品饮料主要子行业的现状及发展趋势.9一、方便面行业.9二、面包糕饼行业.11三、膨化食品行业.13四、软饮料行业.14第三节食品饮料各子行业的市场集中度分析.16第三章 康师傅和达利的基本情况.22第一节 康师傅公司基本情况.22一、公司业务范围及经营现状.22二、公司发展历程.24三、公司经营业绩情况.25四、公司最近五年股价表现.28五、公司面临主要问题和挑战.29第二节 达利公司基本情况.30一、公司业务范围及经营现状.30二、公司发展历程.32三、公司经营业绩情况.32四、公司最近五年股价表现.34五、公司面临主要问题和挑战.35第四章康师傅和达利的财务报表三维分析.37第一节资产负债表的对比分析.37一、趋势分析.37二、结构分析.39三、分析小结.44第二节 损益表的对比分析.44一、趋势分析.44二、结构分析.46三、分析小结.49VI康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究第三节 现金流量表的对比分析.50一、趋势分析.50二、结构分析.53三、分析小结.55第五章康师傅和达利的主要财务指标分析.56第一节 盈利能力比较分析.56一、盈利能力指标的计算.56二、销售收入盈利能力指标分析.57二、投资盈利能力指标分析.58三、分析小结.59第二节资产使用效率比较分析.59一、资产使用效率指标的计算.59二、资产使用效率指标分析.61三、分析小结.62第三节 资产流动性的比较分析.62一、资产流动性指标的计算.62二、资产流动性指标分析.63三、分析小结.65第四节 偿债能力比较分析.65一、偿债能力指标的计算.65二、偿债能力指标分析.67三、分析小结.69第五节 现金创造能力比较分析.69一、现金创造能力指标的计算.69二、现金创造能力指标分析.71三、分析小结.73第六节本章小结.73第六章康师傅和达利五大财务指标的分解分析.75第一节R0E指标的分解分析.75一、ROE指标的影响因素及构成原理.75二、经营性竞争优势分析.76三、财务性竞争优势分析.76四、税赋优势分析.78五、分析小结.78第二节 获现率的分解分析.79一、获现率指标的影响因素及构成原理.79二、WCR构成及变动情况分析.81三、分析小结.82第三节风险指标的分解分析.82一、风险指标的影响因素及构成原理.82二、风险指标的分析.84VII目录三、分析小结.84第四节经济增加值的分解分析.85一、经济增加值指标的影响因素及构成原理.85二、经济增加值指标分析.87三、分析小结.89第五节可持续增长率的分解分析.89一、可持续增长率指标的影响因素及构成原理.89二、可持续增长率指标影响因素分析.90三、分析小结.91第六节本章小结.92第七章康师傅和达利的销售预测和财务预测.93第一节公司价值链及竞争优势分析.93一、价值链分析的概念及其与财务指标之间的关系.93二、康师傅的价值链分析及其财务影响.94三、达利的价值链分析及其财务影响.98第二节市场需求分析和收入预测.102一、方便面市场需求分析和收入预测.102二、软饮料市场需求分析和收入预测.102三、面包糕饼市场需求分析和收入预测.103四、膨化食品市场需求分析和收入预测.103五、收入预测结果汇总.104第三节未来五年的财务数据预测.106一、息前税后经营利润(NOPLAT)预测.106二、资本性支出和折旧摊销预测.108三、营运资金需要量预测.108四、基本每股收益预测.110第八章康师傅和达利的估值分析.111第一节估值的相关模型分析与比较.111一、股票内在价值的概念和估值方法介绍.111二、公司自由现金流量估值模型分析.111三、市盈率估值模型分析.112第二节FCFF估值模型的计算参数与结果.113一、FCFF估值模型的计算参数.113二、康师傅FCFF估值结果.116三、达利FCFF估值结果.117第三节市盈率估值模型的计算参数与结果.118一、市盈率估值模型的计算参数.118二、康师傅PE估值结果.120三、达利PE估值结果.120第四节估值结果的比较与分析.120一、两种估值模型的结果对比.120VIII康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究二、估值影响因素的弹性分析.121三、估值区间与近期股价波动的对比分析.122第五节本章小结.124第九章结论与建议.125第一节主要结论.125一、财务指标对比情况总结.125二、财务分析结论.126三、估值研究总结.126第二节管理建议.128一、财务战略矩阵分析.128二、财务政策建议.129三、经营管理建议.130附录.132参考文献.138致谢.139IXContentsContents1 Overview of the study.11.1 Background of the study.11.1.1 The value of investment in the Hong Kong stock market.I1.1.2 The value of the investment in the food and beverage industry.31.2 Main issues and significance.41.2.1 The main problems of the study.41.2.2 The significance of the study.61.3 Research thoughts and framework.72 Overview of the food and beverage industry.92.1 The current situation of the food and beverage industry and the definition of the scope of the study.92.2 The present situation and development trend of the main sub-industry of the second-section food and beverage.92.2.1 The instant noodles industry.92.2.2 The bakery industry.112.2.3 The Expanding food industry.132.2.4 The soft drinks industry.142.2.5 Market concentration analysis of various sub-industries of food and beverage.163 The basic situation of Master Kong and Daly.223.1 the Company is the basic situation of the Company.223.1.1 The business scope and operation status of the Company.223.1.2 The development process of the company.243.1.3 Business performance of the Company.253.1.4 The Companys recent five-year stock price performance.283.1.5 The company faces the main problems and challenges.293.2 Daleys basic situation.303.2.1 The business scope and operation status of the Company.303.2.2 The development process of the company.323.2.3 Business performance of the Company.323.2.4 The Compan/s recent five-year stock price performance.34325 The company faces the main problems and challenges.354 Three-dimensional analysis of the financial statements.37x康师傅和达利的财务分析与股票估值研究4.1 Comparative analysis of the balance sheet.394.1.1 Trend analysis.394.1.2 Structure analysis.414.1.3 Summary of analysis.464.2 Comparative Analysis of the Income Statement.464.2.1 Trend analysis.464.2.2 Structure analysis.484.2.3 Summary of analysis.514.3 Comparison and Analysis of the Cash Flow Statement.524.3.1 Trend analysis.524.3.2 Structure analysis.554.3.3 Summary of analysis.555 The main financial index analysis of Master Kong and Daly.565.1 Comparative analysis of profitability.565.1.1 Calculation of profitability index.565.1.2 Analysis of profitability index of sales revenue.575.1.3 I nvestment profit ability index analysis.585.1.4 Summary of analysis.595.2 Analysis of the efficiency of the assets.595.2.1 Calculation of the I ndex of the Efficiency of the Assets.595.2.2 Analysis of the I ndex of the Efficiency of the Assets.615.2.3 Summary of analysis.625.3 Comparative analysis of liquidity of assets.625.3.1 Calculation of liq uidity of assets indicators.625.3.2 Analysis of liq uidity of assets indicators.635.3.3 Summary of analysis.655.4 Comparison of debt-servicing capacity.655.4.1 Calculation of debt-servicing capacity indicators.655.4.2 Analysis of debt-servicing capacity indicators.675.4.3 Summary of analysis.695.5 Comparison of cash-creation capacity.695.5.1 Calculation of the performance indicators fbr cash creation.695.5.2 Analysis of the index of cash creation capacity.715.5.3 Summary of analysis.73XIContents5.6 Summary of the chapter.736 Decomposition and analysis of five financial indexes.756.1 Analysis of the decomposition of ROE indicators.756.1.1 I nfluence factors and composition principle of ROE index.756.1.2 Operational competitive advantage analysis.766.1.3 Financial competitive advantage analysis.766.1.4 Analysis of the Advantage of Tax.786.1.5 Summary of analysis.786.2 Decomposition and Analysis of the Current Rate.796.2.1 I mpact factors and composition principle of current rate indicators.796.2.2 WCR Composition and Change Analysis.816.2.3 Summary of analysis.826.3 Analysis of risk indicators.826.3.1 I nfluence factors and