美联储褐皮书.pdf
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1、The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions By Federal Reserve District For use at 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday July 12,2023 June 2023 免费获取报告扫一扫二维码 关注公号 回复:“研究报告”加入“起点财经”微信群每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告;每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报;行研报告均为公开版,权利归原作者所有,起点财经仅分发做内部学习。Federal Reserve Districts Boston New York Ph
2、iladelphia Cleveland Chicago Richmond Atlanta St.Louis Kansas City Dallas Minneapolis San Francisco The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows:the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands;the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa,Guam,and the
3、 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.Alaska and Hawaii are part of the San Francisco District.This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis based on information collected on or before June 30,2023.This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Fed
4、eral Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.National Summary 1 Boston A-1First District New York B-1Second District Philadelphia C-1Third District Cleveland D-1Fourth District Richmond E-1Fifth District Atlanta F-1Sixth District Chicago G-1Seventh District S
5、t.Louis H-1Eighth District Minneapolis I-1Ninth District Kansas City J-1Tenth District Dallas K-1Eleventh District San Francisco L-1Twelfth District What is the Beige Book?The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts
6、.It charac-terizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety of mostly qualitative information,gathered directly from each Districts sources.Reports are published eight times per year.What is the purpose of the Beige Book?The Beige Book is intended to characterize the change in e
7、conomic conditions since the last report.Outreach for the Beige Book is one of many ways the Federal Reserve System engages with businesses and other organizations about economic developments in their communi-ties.Because this information is collected from a wide range of con-tacts through a variety
8、 of formal and informal methods,the Beige Book can complement other forms of regional information gathering.The Beige Book is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.How is the information collected?Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers information on current economic conditions in it
9、s District through reports from Bank and Branch direc-tors,plus interviews and online questionnaires completed by business-es,community organizations,economists,market experts,and other sources.Contacts are not selected at random;rather,Banks strive to curate a diverse set of sources that can provid
10、e accurate and objective information about a broad range of economic activities.The Beige Book serves as a regular summary of this information for the public.How is the information used?The information from contacts supplements the data and analysis used by Federal Reserve economists and staff to as
11、sess economic condi-tions in the Federal Reserve Districts.The qualitative nature of the Beige Book creates an opportunity to characterize dynamics and identi-fy emerging trends in the economy that may not be readily apparent in the available economic data.This information enables comparison of econ
12、omic conditions in different parts of the country,which can be helpful for assessing the outlook for the national economy.The Beige Book does not have the type of information Im looking for.What other information is available?The Federal Reserve System conducts a wide array of recurring sur-veys of
13、businesses,households,and community organizations.A list of statistical releases compiled by the Federal Reserve Board is available here,links to each of the Federal Reserve Banks are available here,and a summary of the Systems community outreach is available here.In addition,Fed Listens events have
14、 been held around the country to hear about how monetary policy affects peoples daily lives and liveli-hoods.The System also relies on a variety of advisory councilswhose members are drawn from a wide array of businesses,non-profit organizations,and community groupsto hear diverse perspectives on th
15、e economy in carrying out its responsibilities.1 National Summary Highlights by Federal Reserve District Overall Economic Activity Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May.Five Districts reported slight or modest growth,five noted no change,and two reported slight and modest decli
16、nes.Reports on consumer spending were mixed;growth was generally observed in consumer services,but some retailers noted shifts away from discretionary spending.Tourism and travel activity was robust,and hospitality contacts expected a busy summer season.Auto sales remained un-changed or exhibited mo
17、derate growth across most Districts.Manufacturing activity edged up in half of the Districts and declined in the other half.Transportation activity was down or flat in most Districts that reported on it,as some contacts reported reduced demand due to high inventory levels and others noted continued
18、challenges from labor shortages.Banking conditions were mostly subdued,as lending activity continued to soften.Despite higher mortgage rates,de-mand for residential real estate remained steady,although sales were constrained by low inventories.Construction for both residential and commercial units w
19、as slightly lower on balance.Agricultural conditions were mixed geographically but softened slightly on balance,with some contacts expecting further softening for the remainder of 2023.Energy activity decreased.Overall economic expectations for the coming months generally continued to call for slow
20、growth.Labor Markets Employment increased modestly this period,with most Districts experiencing some job growth.Labor demand re-mained healthy,though some contacts reported that hiring was getting more targeted and selective.Employers contin-ued to have difficulty finding workers,particularly in hea
21、lth care,transportation,and hospitality,and for high-skilled positions in general.However,many Districts reported that labor availability had improved and that some employers were having an easier time hiring than they were having previously.Employers also reported that the unusually high turnover r
22、ates in recent years appear to be returning to pre-pandemic norms.Wages continued to rise,but more mod-erately.Contacts in multiple Districts reported that wage increases were returning to or nearing pre-pandemic levels.Prices Prices increased at a modest pace overall,and several Districts noted som
23、e slowing in the pace of increase.Consumer prices generally increased,though reports differed in the extent to which firms were able to pass along input cost in-creases.Contacts in some Districts noted reluctance to raise prices because consumers had grown more sensitive to prices,while others repor
24、ted that solid demand allowed firms to maintain margins.Input cost pressures remained ele-vated for services firms but eased notably in the manufacturing sector.Freight rates continued to decrease,along with the prices for many construction inputs,though concrete prices increased.Price expectations
25、were generally stable or lower over the next several months.Boston Business activity expanded at a slight pace.Employment gains were small and prices were stable.Consumer spending increased by a small margin.Manufacturers reported moderate revenue growth.Home sales were disappointing and life scienc
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