美国房地产市场展望.pdf
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1、House View:Real Estate OutlookU.S.Q2 2023Macro House ViewContentsIntroductionSlower near-term rent growth,improving in the medium termThe best and worst times for vacancyHighly illiquid capital markets As goes listed.What it all means4537962023 CBRE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENTHouse View:U.S.Real Estate Ou
2、tlook|Q2 20233Q2 2023IntroductionHouse View:Real Estate Outlook U.S.We have upgraded our five-year average annual total return forecast for core,unlevered U.S.all property to 7.2%(Figure 1)from 6.0%previously.This is better than our last forecast due to the passage of time that has shifted some of t
3、he forecast value losses into the past.On a like-for-like basis for the time period though,this represents a slight downgrade from our forecast three months ago since our macro outlook suggests a tougher time aheadmost especially in the near term.The U.S.now has higher all property returns than the
4、other regions,but we are cautious with a lower-than-desirable conviction around the U.S.macro outlook.As of the time of writing(one day after Fed Chairman Powells announcement of a pause on rate hikes but suggestions of further tightening ahead and a longer wait for the first rate cut),we remain cau
5、tious on downside risk.But we still have conviction on continuing to actively invest into generally strong occupier fundamentals(with some notable exceptions),assisted by a pricing correction,which is now deeper and broader than at any point since the Global Financial Crisis(GFC).Given ongoing uncer
6、tainty on the macro outlook,we emphasize the importance of thematic investment around demographic trends and technological change,and redouble our conviction around the modern logistics and residential sectors.Looking through the nearterm volatility,we are confident that investing in a back-to-basic
7、s approach and seeking secure income streams from real estate will lead to long-term value creation as well.We also appreciate,however,that this moment in time offers a rare opportunity to acquire generational assets at reset bases that have the potential to deliver superior value gains as markets n
8、ormalize.*NCC signifies neighborhood and community centersAll property figures include office,life sciences,medical office,malls,NCC,logistics,apartments,student housing and single-family rental,weighted by current NPI weights.It excludes hotels and self storage as these sectors have no weight in NP
9、I.Source:CBRE Investment Management,forecasts as of Q2 2023.For illustrative purposes only.Based on CBRE Investment Managements subjective assessment and subject to change.Forecasts are inherently uncertain and subject to change.Figure 1:Total return by sector and breakdown%year-over-year average2.2
10、%4.4%6.1%7.0%7.0%7.2%7.8%8.2%8.5%8.7%9.2%9.3%9.4%9.9%13.0%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%Legacy oficeMallsRetailLife sciencesModern oficeAll propertyMedical oficeHotelLegacy logisticsNCC*Student housingSelf storageApartmentsSingle family rentalModern logisticsPrevious
11、forecast,total return,Q1 2023(Q1 2023-Q4 2027)Current forecast,capital growth,Q2 2023(Q3 2023-Q2 2028)Current forecast,income return,Q2 2023(Q3 2023-Q2 2028)Current forecast,total return,Q2 2023(Q3 2023-Q2 2028)Previous forecast,total return,Q1 2023(Q3 2023-Q2 2028)like-for-likeHouse View:U.S.Real E
12、state Outlook|Q2 20232023 CBRE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT4We have revised down our five-year asking rent growth forecasts in most sectors given our forecasts of a more severe credit crunch and weaker growth in the near-term.(Figure 2).Even for legacy office,where our forecasts have for some time been sug
13、gesting a challenged performance ahead,we have downgraded the sector yet further with deeper rent losses over the five-year outlook.Although modern office fares better than the legacy segment,it too now sees rent losses on average.And in the niche office segments,we remain positive on life sciences
14、long-term but the sector faces near-term challenges from heavy supply and restrained funding.Medical office rent growth forecasts remain steady given Americas demographic outlook and limited supply.The extraordinary rent growth delivered in recent years in logistics segments and most residential for
15、mats is now decelerating back to more normal levels.Hotels and neighborhood and community center(NCC)retail have seen their rent growth prospects upgraded as fundamentals continue to improve and recent trends have exceeded expectations.Figure 2:Market rent growthThese figures relate to asking rents
16、unless indicated differently:*M-Rev PAF change per Green Street Advisors.*Average daily room rate(“ADR”)*NCC denotes neighborhood and community centersAll Property figures include office,life science,medical office,malls,NCC,logistics,apartments,student housing and single-family rental,weighted by c
17、urrent NPI weights.It excludes hotels and self storage as these sectors have no weight in NPISource:CBRE Investment Management,forecasts as of Q2 2023.For illustrative purposes only.Based on CBRE Investment Managements subjective views and subject to change.There can be no assurance any targets or d
18、evelopments will occur as expected.Forecasts are inherently uncertain and subject to change.Slower near-term rent growth,improving in the medium term-3.4%-1.1%0.4%1.3%1.6%1.8%2.1%2.2%2.4%2.7%2.7%3.3%3.7%5.5%6.2%Legacy oficeModern oficeMallsRetailLife scienceMedical oficeSelf storage*All propertyStud
19、ent housingHotel*NCC*Apartments*Single-family rentalLegacy logisticsModern logistics-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%Previous forecast,Q1 2023(Q1 2023-Q4 2027)Current forecast,Q2 2023(Q3 2023-Q2 2028)%year-over-year averageHouse View:U.S.Real Estate Outlook|Q2 20232023 CBRE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT5The best and wors
20、t times for vacancyIn the face of over 500 basis points of policy rate tightening at the fastest pace since the early 1980s,the U.S.economy has been showing remarkable resilience,especially in the labor market.While technology companies and local and regional banks have announced job cuts,the bigger
21、 issue is,in fact,ongoing labor shortages across a wide range of occupations and industries.The U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics reported(May 31,2023)that job openings edged up to 10.1 million as of the end of April,with over half those openings found in just three industries:retail trade;healthcare a
22、nd social assistance;and transportation,warehousing and utilities.Structurally,we continue to believe that the shortage of labor should encourage tenants and their real estate managers to urgently think through how technology may be more rapidly adopted in these fields.For the majority of property t
23、ypes,the strong labor market is translating into decent space demand,keeping vacancy rates well below long-term averages and close to record lows in some markets.Figure 3 shows national-level sectoral vacancy rates historically,currently and in our long-range forecast.Office is expected to endure it
24、s worst of times,with vacancy expected to surpass 20%by next year and potentially top 22%by 2025.This would be a worse situation than the GFC,the 2002“tech wreck”or the early 1990s.Shopping malls(not graphed)also have current vacancy rates at their highest point in decades.Life sciences vacancy has
25、risen sharply over the past two quarters but remains well below historical highs.For most of the other sectors,vacancy rates are not far from all-time lows.Figure 3:National vacancy rates by sectorSource:CoStar and CBRE Investment Management forecasts as of Q2 2023.For illustrative purposes only.0%2
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