2023年商业地产展望报告.pdf
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1、2023 commercial real estate outlookThe global CRE industry faces uncertainty.Leaders can navigate the future of real estate in 2023 and beyond by focusing on strategic execution,talent,and innovation.A report from the Deloitte Center for Financial ServicesKEY FINDINGS 2FORMING A ROAD MAP FOR CHANGIN
2、G TIMES 3NEW CONCERNS ABOUT REVENUE CAUSE NUMEROUS STRATEGY REASSESSMENTS 4STRATEGICALLY POSITIONING FOR WHATS NEXT 8Office10 Industrial10 Housing 11 Retail11 Hotel12 Alternatives:Datacenters,seniorhousing,andlifesciences13THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT IS HEATING UP 15UnderstandingandcomplyingwithESGdi
3、sclosurerequirements15 Thechallengetomeetexpectations16 Addressingtrendsintaxregulation18MEETING THE GROWING EXPECTATIONS OF THE TALENT LANDSCAPE 21Attractingandretainingtalentthroughthegreat“reshuffle”21 The staying power of relocations and the emergence of“super commuters”23EMBRACING TECHNOLOGY FO
4、R GREATER EFFICIENCY AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES 2425 OperatingefficienciesandtheapplicationofproptechsLookingtothefuture25THE WINDING ROAD AHEAD 27ENDNOTES 28Contents2Most global real estate CFOs are much more cautious with their 2023 operating plans:Our global survey reveals that only 40%of respondents
5、expect to finish 2022 with higher revenues than last year,and 33%expect to cut expenses.They cite sustained high inflation,workforce management,and cyber risk as top risks to financial performance for the coming year.Owners and investors are targeting offices,digital economy,and logistics properties
6、.Downtown and suburban offices rank first and third overall for global risk-adjusted asset class opportunities.ESG-related actions are still top of mind,but most firms need guidance on how to implement changes and monitor progress.Only 12%of the total industry surveyed,and 17%of the required public
7、REITs,are prepared to immediately respond to regulatory action.The evolving global regulatory environment is expected to bring changes to tax structure and modernization to the forefront.Potential changes to transfer pricing and profit-sharing and increases in tax rates could have the greatest impac
8、t on commercial real estate(CRE)firms.Regional approaches are emerging to attract and retain talent.Firms are focusing on increasing workplace automation,bolstering diversity,equity,and inclusion(DE&I)initiatives,accelerating career growth opportunities,and offering more recognition and awards progr
9、ams.Real estate firms of all sizes are seeking outsourcing opportunities to optimize operational capacities.There is continued interest in leveraging proptechs to help offer complementary,innovative services.While technology budgets tend to be more reserved,those who plan to increase spend have oppo
10、rtunities to improve efficiency and explore new revenue opportunities in fundraising and digital assets.KEY FINDINGS3Forming a road map for changing timesTHE WORLD ECONOMY is again in danger Even if a global recession is averted,the pain of stagflation could persist for several years For many countr
11、ies,recession will be hard to avoid.”1 This,from the World Banks latest global economic forecast,describes how the global economy is currently in a state of heightened uncertainty due to economic shocks that have threatened a pandemic-era recovery.Declines in equity prices reflect not only economic
12、concerns,but also geopolitical instability and lingering disruptions brought on by COVID-19.The real estate industry also faces an unknown trajectory.Megatrends such as record inflation and supply chain disruptions can push and pull property fundamentals in all directions,ESG regulation and changes
13、to tax policy can weigh on decision-makers,and evolving employee expectations often complicate hiring and retention.There is frequently pressure to improve operational efficiencies and adopt innovative emerging technologies that could provide some remedies.This years commercial real estate(CRE)outlo
14、ok will explore the path forward and offer actionable insights leaders should consider as they plan ahead.“2023 commercial real estate outlook4New concerns about revenue cause numerous strategy reassessmentsA RECENT DELOITTE ECONOMICS report offered several scenarios for the near-term outlook in the
15、 United States.2 The most likely scenario(at 55%likelihood)is that economic growth continues through 2022,though tightening monetary policy,peaking employment growth,and continued energy and food shortages slow this near-term growth trajectory.Inflation would remain high through 2022,but gradually s
16、ettle around 2%by mid-2023 as demand for goods subsides in favor of services,helping businesses alleviate supply chain issues.The Federal Reserve would raise rates to combat inflation through 2022,but slow rate increases as inflation normalizes.Other,less likely scenarios include:(1)Back to the 1970
17、s(25%)where businesses raise prices and wages in lockstep and there is sustained high inflation;(2)COVID-19 relapse(5%)in which vaccines become ineffective,and lockdowns are again imposed;and(3)Next recession(15%),triggered by overly aggressive tightening of monetary policy as governments attempt to
18、 tame inflation.Regardless of which scenario comes to fruition,the 2023 Deloitte real estate outlook survey reveals that concerns about the economy are top of mind for most global real estate leaders as they prepare for the remainder of 2022 and 2023(see sidebar,“Methodology”).Revenue expectations f
19、or the full year are mixed among those surveyed,and generally more muted than last year.While 40%of respondents expect their revenues to improve compared to last year,48%see revenues decreasing,and 12%expect no change.In contrast,last years survey results were much more optimistic:80%of respondents
20、indicated revenue expectations would be slightly to significantly better than the prior year(figure 1).3 Of course,those expectations came in the wake of a very challenging 2020.Furthermore,with revenue expectations muted,a greater proportion of respondents(33%)are planning to cut costs compared to
21、last year,when just 6%planned to make cuts.5Note:Percentages may not add up to 100%due to rounding.Source:The Deloitte Center for Financial Services 2023 Real Estate Outlook Survey.Deloitte Insights| 1When asked to forecast 2022 revenues,respondents were much less optimistic than they were last year
22、 2023 vs.2022 survey results Increase No change DecreaseAnticipated change in revenues80%74%80%85%40%44%37%39%11%15%11%8%12%13%11%13%9%11%9%6%48%43%52%49%Global averageNorth AmericaEuropeAsia/PacificGlobal averageNorth AmericaEuropeAsia/Pacific2022 survey(end of 2021)2023 survey(end of 2022)METHODOL
23、OGYThe Deloitte Center for Financial Services conducted a global survey among 450 chief financial officers(CFOs)of major commercial real estate owners and investment companies.Survey respondents were asked to share their opinions on their organizations growth prospects and forward plans for workforc
24、e,operations,technology,and culture.We also asked about their investment priorities and anticipated structural changes in 2023.Respondents were equally distributed among three regionsNorth America(the United States and Canada),Europe(the United Kingdom,France,Germany,and Switzerland),and Asia/Pacifi
25、c(Australia,China Mainland,Japan,and Singapore).The survey included real estate companies with assets under management of at least US$100 million and was completed in June 2022.Overall,respondents indicated that sustained high inflation,workforce management,cyber risk and climate-related regulatory
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