国际投行报告:全球房地产泡沫指数2023.pdf
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1、September 2023Chief Investment Office GWMInvestment Research UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 3 Editorial 4 Key results 5 Deflating bubbles 7 Regional focus13 City benchmarks15 City spotlights22 City overview23 Methodology&DataContent3Dear reader,Low financing costs have been the lifeblood of glo
2、bal housing markets over the past decade,driving home prices to dizzying heights.However,the abrupt end of the low interest rate environment has shaken the house of cards.On average of all cities,within the past year,inflation-adjusted home prices have seen the sharpest drop since the global financi
3、al crisis in 2008.Cities that have been classified in the bubble risk zone at least once in the past three years recorded an even stronger average price decline.But the impact of higher interest rates has varied markedly across cities,with the price correction depending on several other factors as w
4、ell.Where home financing was already at the limit of affordability with low interest rates,higher interest rates almost inevitably led to a slump in local demand.If a market was characterized by a significant decoupling of purchase prices from rents,the rise in mortgage rates shifted demand back to
5、the rental market.In housing markets that were predominantly short-term financed,owner households immedi-ately felt the higher financing costs and were forced to accept lower prices when selling.Where buy-to-let became popular during the low interest rate period,fire sales due to higher interest rat
6、es and slumping profitability intensified a correction.In cities where several of these factors came together at the same timeas in Toronto,Frankfurt,and Stockholm,for examplere-pricing took place all the faster and more severely.In this issue,find out in which cities property prices and valuations
7、have fallen the most,where(further)corrections are imminent,and where price increases are continuing or could happen in the future.We hope you enjoy reading it.EditorialClaudio SaputelliHead Swiss&Global Real EstateChief Investment Office GWMMatthias HolzheySenior Real Estate EconomistChief Investme
8、nt Office GWM4Prices in reverse gearMost analyzed urban centers have seen a real house price drop during the last four quarters.In cities at bubble risk during the last three years,property prices have declined by 10%on average.Inflation as game-changerInflation made a decisive contribution to the r
9、eduction in imbalances.While rising interest rates put pressure on house prices,inflation supports income and rental growth.The latter has accel-erated in most cities outside the US and reached the highest value in almost a decade.Fewer cities at bubble risk Risk scores have dropped sharply in most
10、cities in recent quarters.High imbalances persist in Zurich and Tokyorelatively low mortgage and inflation rates have not caused any market disturbance there.Defying gravity The most sought-after destinations in recent years are Singapore,Dubai,and Miami.In those hotspots of interna-tional demand,re
11、ntal and for-sale price growth clearly stand out.Prices are up as much as 40%and rents 50%higher than two years ago.Tight financing conditionsFinancial affordability of housing has collapsed as mortgage rates have roughly tripled since 2021 in most markets.Therefore,household leverage has been decli
12、ning in most countries in recent quarters.Too early for turnaround There is more downside in real house prices.However,a housing shortage has set the stage for a renewed boom in many citiesif interest rates fall.StockholmFrankfurtMunichZurichMilanMadridDubaiSingaporeSydneyHong KongTokyoGenevaBostonN
13、ew York Los AngelesSan FranciscoVancouverParisTorontoMiamiLondonAmsterdam1.651.240.470.670.140.741.711.350.980.490.731.130.461.270.801.211.381.030.470.810.270.340.93Tel AvivBubble risk(1.5)Overvalued(0.5 to 1.5)Fair-valued(0.5 to 0.5)0.09So PauloWarsaw 0.28Key results5The global surge in inflation a
14、nd interest rates over the past two years has led to a sharp decline in imbalances in the hous-ing markets of global financial centers on average,as measured by the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index.In this years edition,only the two cities Zurich and Tokyo have remained in the bubble risk categor
15、y,down from nine cities a year ago.Formerly in the bubble risk zone,Toronto,Frankfurt,Munich,Hong Kong,Vancouver,Amsterdam,and Tel Aviv saw their imbalances decline and are now in the overvalued territory.Housing markets in Miami,Geneva,Los Angeles,London,Stockholm,Paris,and Sydney are overvalued as
16、 well.Also,New York,Boston,San Francisco,and Madrid have expe-rienced a drop in imbalances.These markets are now fairly valued,according to the index,as are Milan,So Paulo,and Warsaw.Singapore and Dubai are fairly valued as well,even though their reputation as geopolitical safe-havens has recently t
17、riggered a surge in demand for both renting and buying there.Price corrections across the boardHouse price growth has suffered due to rising financing costs as average mortgage rates have roughly tripled since 2021 in most markets.Annual nominal price growth in the 25 cities analyzed has come to a s
18、tandstill after a buoyant 10%rise a year ago.In inflation-adjusted terms,prices are even 5%lower now than in mid-2022.On average the cities lost most of the real price gains made during the pandemic and are now close to mid-2020 levels again.However,higher interest rates have impacted house prices d
19、ifferently depending on existing market imbalances and prevailing mortgage terms.In Frankfurt and Toronto the two cities with the highest risk scores in last years editionreal price tumbled by 15%in the last four quarters.A combination of high market valuations and relatively short mortgage terms pu
20、t prices also under strong pressure in Stockholm and to a lesser degree in Sydney,London,and Vancouver.In contrast,in Madrid,New York,and So Paulo cities with moderate risk valuations so farreal home prices have continued to rise at a subdued pace.Identifying a bubble Price bubbles are a recurring p
21、henomenon in property markets.The term“bubble”refers to a substantial and sustained mispric-ing of an asset,the existence of which cannot be proved unless it bursts.But historical data reveals patterns of property market excesses.Typical signs include a decoupling of prices from local incomes and re
22、nts,and imbalances in the real economy,such asexcessive lending and construction activity.The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index gauges the risk of aproperty bubble on the basis of such patterns.The index does not predict whether and when a correction will set in.A change in macroeconomic momentum,
23、a shift in investor sentiment or amajor supply increase could trigger adecline in house prices.ZurichTokyoMiamiMunichFrankfurtHong KongTorontoGenevaLos AngelesLondonTel AvivVancouverAmsterdamStockholmParisSydneyMilanNew YorkSingaporeMadridBostonSan FranciscoDubaiSo PauloWarsaw 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910111
24、213141516171819202122232425Bubble risk(1.5)Overvalued(0.5 to 1.5)Fair-valued(0.5 to 0.5)Rank changevs.2022UBS Global Real Estate Bubble IndexIndex scores for the housing markets of select cities,2023Source:UBS For an explanation,see the section on Methodology&data on page 23.1.711.651.381.351.271.24
25、1.211.131.030.980.930.810.800.730.670.490.470.470.460.340.270.140.090.740.280.50.00.51.01.5Deflating bubblesDeflating bubbles6Fundamentals supported by inflationThe widespread decrease in imbalances was not only a consequence of falling house prices but was supported by robust market fundamentals an
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