风险管理5.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,*,*,风险管理,RISK MANAGEMENT,风险管理是项目管理中,最为重要,的一个方面,Management of Complex Projects,Integrated Systems&Services,Project Finance,Private Finance Initiative,Life-cycle Management,Project Process Management,Human Resource Management,Project Information Systems,Design Management,Project Management Planning&Control,Project Definition,Supply Chain Management,Risk Management,Best Value,Commercial Management,Contract Dispute Resolution,Bidding Procurement,损害可能说和损害不确定说,风险损害可能说从企业经营角度出发，探讨了风险与损失之间的内在联系，强调损害发生的可能性。,(,损害发生的可能性、影响给付或意外事故发生的可能性,),损害不确定说从风险管理与保险的关系角度出发，以概率的观点对风险进行定义。,(,客观的不确定性、费用、损失与损害相关的不确定性,),一、风险的定义,风险因素结合说,美国学者佩费尔认为“风险是每个人和风险因素的结合体”，这一学说将风险与人们的利益相联系这一观点表述出来。,预期与实际结果变动说,这一学派较为典型的学者是威廉姆斯和海因斯，他们认为“风险是在一定条件下一定时期内可能产生结果的变动”。,风险主观说和风险客观说,风险主观说强调的是“损失”与“不确定性”的关系，不确定性的范围包括风险产生与否、发生时间、发生过程、发生结果不确定。这一学说的代表人物麦尔和柯梅克认为“风险是与损失相关的不确定性”,风险客观说认为风险可用客观的尺度测度其大小。这一学说的主要代表人物费佩尔认为“风险是可测度的客观概率的大小”,全面理解风险的含义,风险是与人们的行为相联系的，不与行为联系的风险只是一种危险。,客观条件的变化是风险的重要成因。,风险是指可能的后果与目标发生的负偏离。,尽管风险强调负偏离，但实际中也存在正偏离。正偏离是人们渴求的，属于风险收益的范畴。,1,、风险的概念,在给定情况下和特定时间内，那些可能发生的结果之间的差异，差异越大则风险越大。（强调风险的差异）,不利事件发生的不确定性，认为风险是不期望发生事件的客观不确定性。,2,、工程项目风险,所有影响工程项目目标实现的不确定性因素的集合。（纯风险）,3,、风险因素、风险事件、损失与风险之间的关系,风险因素,风险事件,损失,实际结果与预期结果之间的差异,风险,=,产生或增加,引起,产生,4,、风险的特征,客观性。风险的存在取决于决定风险的各种因素的存在。风险的客观性要求人们,充分认识风险、承认风险,。,突发性。风险的产生往往给人一种突发的感觉。应加强对风险的,预警和防范,研究。,多变性。风险会受到各种因素的影响，在风险性质、破坏程度等方面呈现动态变化的特征。要求实施,动态的、柔性的,风险管理。,相对性。人们对风险的,承受能力,不同；风险性质和后果都存在,可变,性。,无形性。不像一般的物质实体，增加了认识风险和把握风险的,难度,。,二、风险的分类,1,、按后果分，纯风险、投机风险,纯风险是指只会造成损失而不会带来收益的风险。例如自然灾害，一旦发生，将会导致重大损失，甚至人员伤亡；如果不发生，只是不造成损失而已，但不会带来额外的收益。此外，政治、社会方面的风险一般也都表现为纯风险。,投机风险是指既可造成损失也可能创造额外收益的风险。例如，一项重大投资活动可能因决策错误或因遇到不测事件而使投资者蒙受灾难性的损失；但如果决策正确，则可能给投资人带来巨额利润。,2,、按原因分，政治、社会、经济、自然、技术,按风险产生的不同原因可将风险分为政治风险、社会风险、经济风险、自然风险、技术风险等。其中，经济风险的界定可能会有一定的差异，例如，有的学者将金融风险作为独立的一类风险来考虑。另外，除自然风险和技术风险是相对独立的之外，政治风险、社会风险和经济风险之间存在,一定的联系,，有时表现为相互影响，有时表现为因果关系，难以截然分开。,3,、,按影响范围分，基本、特殊,(,局部、总体,),基本风险是指作用于整个经济或大多数人群的风险，具有普遍性，如战争、自然灾害、高通膨胀等。显然，基本风险的影响范围大，其后果严重。,特殊风险是指仅作用于某一特定单体,(,如企业或个人,),的风险，不具备普遍性，如偷车、抢银行、房屋失火等。特殊风险的影响范围小，虽然就个体而言，其损失有时亦相当大，但相对于整个经济而言，其后果不严重。,4,、,主观风险与客观风险,美国学者格林和多尔夫曼指出，根据风险发生的原因，可分为主观风险和客观风险。,所谓主观风险是指由于精神状态和心理状态产生的风险，一般难以正确测定。,所谓客观风险是指能以概率推算出来的损害。,5,、,可管理风险和不可管理风险,可管理风险是指可以预测，并可采取相应措施加以控制的风险；反之，则为不可管理的风险。风险能否管理，取决于风险不确定性是否可以消除以及活动主体的管理水平。要消除风险管理的不确定性，就必须掌握有关的数据、资料和其他信息。随着数据、资料和其他信息的增加以及管理水平的提高，有些不可管理的风险可以,转变,为可管理的风险。,6,、,已知风险、可预测风险和不可预测风险,已知风险是指在认真、严格的分析项目及其计划之后就能够明确的那些经常发生的，而且其后果亦可预见的风险。,可预测风险是指根据经验，可以预见其发生，但不可预见后果的风险。,不可预测风险就是有可能发生，但其发生的可能性即使是最有经验的人也不可预见的风险，不可预测风险有时也称未知风险或未识别的风险。,7,、,其他分类,项目风险，若按其后果的承担者来划分，有项目业主风险、政府风险、承包商风险、投资方风险、设计单位风险、监理单位风险、供货商风险、担保方风险和保险公司风险等。这种划分有助于合理分配风险，提高项目对风险的承受能力。,Risk concepts,In general,risk is a function of the uniqueness of a project and the experience of the project team.When activities are routine or have been performed many times before,managers can anticipate the range of potential outcomes and manipulate aspects of the system design and project plan to achieve the outcomes desired.,When the project is unique or the team is inexperienced,the potential outcomes are uncertain,making it difficult to know what could go wrong and how to avoid problems.Even in routine projects there is risk because outcomes may be influenced either by factors that are new and emerging,or those beyond anyones control.,Though risk cannot be eliminated from projects,it can be reduced,.,That is the purpose of risk management,.There are three major aspects of risk management:risk identification,risk assessment,and risk response planning.,三、建设工程风险,建设工程风险大。建设工程建设周期持续时间长，所涉及到的风险因素多。同时，每一种风险因素都会产生许多不同的风险事件。因此，建设工程风险因素和风险事件发生的概率均较大。,参与工程建设的各方均有风险，但各方的风险不尽相同。工程建设各方所遇到的风险事件有较大差异。即使是同一风险事件，对不同参与方的后果有时迥然不同。,对于业主来说，建设工程决策阶段的风险主要表现为投机风险，而在实施阶段的风险主要表现为纯风险。,四、风险管理过程,1,、风险识别,Identification,2,、,风险评价,Assessment,3,、,风险对策决策,Risk Response Planning,4,、,实施决策,5,、检查,风险管理的具体目标应与风险事件的发生联系起来。发生前，使潜在损失最小；发生后，使实际损失减少到最低程度。,Steps in Typical Project Risk Management Methods,Chapman&Ward,Michaels,NASA,Lockyer,&Gordon,Define,Identification,Identify,Identify,Focus,Identify,Structure,Quantification,Analyze,Assess,Ownership,Estimate,Evaluate,Plan,Control,Plan,Mitigate,Manage,Track/Control,Risk management Processes(PMBOK2000),Risk management planningdeciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for a project,Risk identificationdetermining which risks might affect the project and documenting their characteristics,Qualitative risk analysisperforming a qualitative analysis of risks and conditions to prioritize their effects on project objectives,Quantitative risk analysismeasuring the probability and consequences of risks and estimating their implications for project objectives,Risk response planningdeveloping procedures and techniques to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the projects objectives,Risk monitoring and controlmonitoring residual risks,identify new risks,executing risk reduction plans,and evaluating their effectiveness throughout the project life cycle,五、风险识别,1,、过程,通过对经验数据的分析、风险调查、专家咨询以及实验论证等方式，在多维分解的过程中，认识风险，建立工程风险清单,(Checklist),。,2,、,风险的分解,目标维,时间维,结构维,因素维,时间维,目标维,因素维,保修期,竣工验收,施工,施工招标,设计,投资,进度,质量,安全,材料设备风险,人员风险,合同风险,组织协调风险,经济风险,政治及社会风险,自然及环境风险,其他技术风险,施工技术风险,设计技术风险,建设工程三维风险分解图,3,、方法,专家调查法,财务报表法,流程图法,初始清单法,经验数据法,风险调查法,无论采用何种风险识别方法组合，都必须包含,风险调查法,。前五种用于建立初始风险清单，而风险调查法则在于建立最终的风险清单。,六、风险评价,1,、作用,更准确地认识风险。通过定量方法进行风险评价，可以定量地确定建设工程各种风险因素和风险实践发生的概率大小或概率分布，及其发生后对建设工程目标影响的严重程度或损失严重程度；,保证目标规划的合理性和计划的可行性。,建设工程数据库,中的数据均为历史数据，只能反映各种风险综合作用的后果，不能反映各种风险各自作用的后果。由于建设工程风险的个别性，必须对特定建设工程的风险进行定量评价。,合理选择风险对策，形成最佳风险对策组合。风险对策的适用性需从效果和代价两个方面考虑。,2,、,风险量函数,Risk=f(likelihood,impact),Risks are commonplace,but it is only the notable ones that require attention.What is considered notable depends on three things:risk likelihood,risk impact,and risk consequence.,p,q,潜在损失,风险发生概率,R,3,R,2,R,1,A probability is a numerical statement about the chance that an event will occur.,There are two basic statements about the mathematics of probability:,1.The probability,P,of any event or state of nature occurring is greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1.,2.The sum of the simple probabilities for all possible outcomes of an activity must equal 1.,There are two different ways to determine probability:the,objective approach,and the,subjective approach,.,1.,P(event,)=number of occurrences of the event/total number of trials or outcomes,2.When logic and past history are not appropriate,probability values can be assessed subjectively.The accuracy of subjective probabilities depend on the experience and judgment of the person making the estimates.,3,、风险之间的相关性,风险发生,被风险影响的活动,4,、风险评价方法,定性：,专家打分法,层次分析法,定量：,蒙特卡罗模拟法,马尔柯夫过程分析法,模糊分析法,计划评审技术,敏感性分析,盈亏平衡分析,决策树,随机网络,When a system contains elements that exhibit chance in their behavior,the,Monte Carlo method,of simulation may be applied.The basis of Monte Carlo simulation is experimentation on the chance(or probabilistic)elements through random sampling.,The technique breaks down into five simple steps:,1.Setting up a probability distribution for important variables,2.Building a cumulative probability distribution for each variable in step 1,3.Establishing an interval of random numbers for each variable,4.Generating random numbers,5.Actually simulating a series of trials,Simulation is a tool that has become widely accepted by managers for several reasons:,1.It is relatively straightforward and flexible,2.It can be used to analyze large and complex real-world situations that cannot be solved by conventional quantitative analysis models,3.Simulation allows what-if?Types of questions.Managers like to know in advance what options are attractive,4.Simulation do not interfere with the real-world system.With simulation,experiments are done with the model,not on the system itself,5.Simulation allows us to study the interactive effect of individual components or variables to determine which ones are important,6.“Time compression”is possible with simulation.The effect of ordering,advertising,or other policies over many months or years can be obtained by computer simulation in a short time,7.Simulation allows for the inclusion of real-world complications that most quantitative analysis models cannot permit,All decision trees are similar in that they contain,decision points,or,nodes,and,state-of-nature points,or,nodes,.,1,2,Favorable Market,Unfavorable Market,Favorable Market,Unfavorable Market,Construct Large Plant,Construct Small Plant,Do Nothing,Five Steps of Decision Tree Analysis,Define the problem,Structure or draw the decision tree,Assign probabilities to the state of nature,Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of alternatives and states of nature,Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values(EMVS)for each state of nature node.This is done by working backward,that is,starting at the right of the tree and working back to decision nodes on the left.,1,2,Favorable Market(0.5),Unfavorable Market(0.5),Construct Large Plant,Construct Small Plant,Do Nothing,Favorable Market(0.5),Unfavorable Market(0.5),Payoffs,$200,000,-$180,000,$100,000,-$20,000,$0,EMV for Node 1,=$10,000,EMV for Node 2,=$40,000,=(0.5)($200,000)+(0.5)(-180,000),=(0.5)($100,000)+(0.5)(-20,000),2,3,4,5,6,7,1,First Decision Point,Second Decision Point,Survey Results Favorable(0.45),Survey Results Negative(0.55),Conduct Market Survey,Do Not Conduct Survey,七、建设工程风险对策,1,、风险回避,(Avoid Risk),风险回避就是以一定的方式中断风险源，使其不发生或不再发展，从而避免可能产生的潜在损失。,采用风险回避对策时，有时需要做出一些牺牲，但较之承担的风险可能造成的损失要小得多。,2,、损失控制,(Reduce Risk),损失控制是一种主动、积极的风险对策。损失控制可分为预防损失和减少损失两方面工作。,制定损失控制措施必须以定量风险评价的结果为依据，风险评价时要特别注意间接损失和隐蔽损失；还必须考虑付出的代价，包括费用和时间两方面的代价。,损失控制计划系统包括：预防计划、灾难计划、应急计划。,3,、风险自留,(Accept Risk),风险自留就是将风险留给自己承担，与其他风险对策的根本区别在于，它不改变建设工程风险的客观性质，即既不改变工程风险的发生概率，也不改变工程风险潜在损失的严重性。,风险自留可分为非计划性风险自留和计划性风险自留。,损失支付方式：从现金净收入中支出；建立非基金储备；自我保险；母公司保险。,风险自留的适用条件：别无选择；期望损失不严重；损失可准确预测；企业有短期内承受最大潜在损失的能力；投资机会很好；内部服务优良。,4,、风险转移,(Transfer the Risk),根据风险管理的基本理论，建设工程的风险应由有关各方分担，而风险分担的原则是：,任何一种风险都应由最适宜承担该风险或最有能力进行损失控制的一方承担,。符合这一原则的风险转移是合理的，可以取得双赢和多赢的结果。,非保险转移又称合同转移，常见的有：业主将合同责任和风险转移给对方当事人；承包商进行合同转让或工程分包；第三方担保。,保险转移直接称为保险，对于建设工程风险来说，则为工程保险。,优点：建设工程在发生重大损失后可以从保险公司及时得到赔偿；保险公司向业主和承包商提供较为全面的风险管理服务，从而提高整个建设工程风险管理的水平,缺点：机会成本增加；工程保险合同复杂，保险谈判耗费时间和精力；投保人产生麻痹而疏于损失控制计划。,Risk Identification,Before you can manage something,you must first know about it.Thus,risk management begins with identifying the risks and predicting their consequence.If a risk and its consequences are significant,ways must be found to avoid the risk or reduce it to an acceptable level.What is considered acceptable risk depends on the,risk tolerance,of project stakeholders and managers.,Risk in projects is sometimes referred to as the risk of,failure,which implies that a project might fall short of schedule,budget,or technical goals by a large margin.There is also the risk of,opportunity,which are events that could lead to rewards,savings,or benefits.,The main emphasis of risk identification is usually on determining the risk of failure.,Identifying project risks should start early in the conception phase.,Sources of Risk,Any factor with an uncertain probability of occurring that can influence the outcome of a project is considered a risk source or risk hazard.,Risk in projects can be classified as internal risks and external risks.,Internal Risks.,Internal risks,originate inside the project.Project managers and stakeholders usually have a measure of control over these.Two main categories of internal risks are,market risk,and,technical risk,.,Market risk is the risk of not fulfilling either market needs or the requirements of particular customers.Technical risk is the risk of not meeting time,cost,or performance requirements due to technical problems with the end-item or project activities.,External Risks,.The other main risk category is external risks,which includes only risks that stem from sources outside the project.Project managers and stakeholders usually have little or no control over these.,Identification Techniques,Project risks are identified from analysis of the numerous documents reviewed or prepared during project conception and definition.These documents include reports from past projects,list of user needs and requirements,WBSs,work package definitions,cost estimates,schedules,and schematics and models of end-items.,Among the techniques for pinpointing risks are analogy,checklists,WBS analysis,process flowcharts,and brainstorming.,Ideas generated in a brainstorming meeting can be recorded on a cause-and-effect diagram.Brainstorming and cause-and-effect diagrams are used in two ways:(1)Given an identified,potential outcome(,effect,),they can identify potential,causes,(hazards);(2)Given a risk hazard(,cause,),they can identify outcomes that might ensure(,effects,).,Risk Assessment,Risks are commonplace,but it is only the,notable,ones that require attention.What is considered notable depends on three things:risk likelihood,risk impact,and risk consequence.,Risk Likelihood,Risk likelihood is the probability that a hazard or risk factor will actually materialize.It can be expressed as a numerical value between 1.0(certain to happen)and 0(impossible)or as a qualitative rating such as high,medium,or low.Numerical values and qualitative ratings are sometimes used interchangeable.,Risk Impact,What would happen if a risk hazard materialized?The result would be called,risk impact,.,Risk impact in projects is,specified,in terms of time,cost,and performance measures.,Risk impact can be expressed as a qualitative rating such as high,medium,or low.,Risk impact can also be expressed as a numerical measure between 0 and 1.0,where 0 is“not serious”and 1.0 is“catastrophic”.,Still another way to express risk impact is in terms of what would be necessary to,recover,from,or compensate for,resulting damages or undesired,outcomes.,Risk Consequence,The notion of risk was defined as a function of risk likelihood and risk impact.This notion is referred to as the,risk consequence,.,Risk consequence can be expressed as a simple numerical rating with a value rating between 0 and 1.0,and can also be expressed as an,expected value,.,Risk Priority,Projects are subject to numerous risks,yet only a few are important enough to merit attention.Once the risk consequences for a project have been computed,they are rank-ordered and those with moderate-to-high consequences are given,a second look,.,One drawback with specifying risk priority using expected value is that very low likelihood risks are sometimes ignored even when they have potentially severe,even catastrophic,impact.,Impact,M,M,M,H,H,L,L,VL,VH,Risk Levels,Probability,While assigning risk ratings,usually decision-makers consider an implied factor,which is controllability.Controllability is usually not considered in risk quantification formulas explicitly but its affect is usually considered under impact and “probability ratings.If a risk factor is within reasonable control of a company or transferable to other parties through contract conditions,a lower risk rating may be assigned.,Thus,the ability of a company to manage