Unit-7-The-Art-of-Smart-Guessing翻译.doc
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1、Unit 7 The Art of Smart GuessingBryan W. Mattimore1. Several years ago, interviewing candidates for a job, I grew tired of asking what experience do you have? So I decided on a one-question quiz to find out how resourceful a thinker the new hire might be. Here it is:2.You are on a yacht sailing the
2、Pacific Ocean. Your navigator announces you are over the deepest point, the Mariana Trench. Just then, a clumsy guest accidentally drops a 12-pound cannonball over the side. How long will it take for the cannonball to reach the bottom of the Ocean?3.Before reading on, please try to solve this yourse
3、lf paying special attention to how you might solve it.4.Did you make a completely wild guess because there wasnt enough information? Did you get too bogged down in the details trying to come up with the exactly right answer? Or did you zero in on the two most important problems how deep is the Maria
4、na Trench and how fast might a cannonball fall through the water then hazard a guesstimate?5.Most of my candidates simply made a wild guess, thinking that they couldnt be 100-percent right. Rarely was someone willing to risk an approximation. 6.What does this have to do with business or creativity?
5、A great deal. In the real world, we frequently need to make decisions when the full information does not exist. From what foods we eat to how to raise our kids, creative people must think for themselves. There may not be the time or the money to make sure of all your decisions. Your best guess will
6、often be the best you can do.7.Suppose, for example, youve been asked to write a marketing plan for a new telephone device that will send your name, company, address and telephone number to a visual display or printer on another persons phone. In addition to conventional outlets like mass merchandis
7、ers and electronics stores, youd like to know the number of phone stores in the United States. Unfortunately, this figure is not available, either from the market-research houses or from the U.S. government. What do you do?8.One solution would be to go to your local library, pull out a few phone dir
8、ectories from around the country, turn to the Yellow Pages and start counting. You could then guesstimate how many stores per 100,000 people in each of the cities you counted. This, by the way, is exactly what a marketing consultant I know did for a large telecommunications client. 9.The question ab
9、out phone stores was an example of what scientists call a Fermi problem, named after Nobel Prize-winning scientist Enrico Fermi, who used problems such as this to teach his students how to think for themselves. A Fermi problem does not contain all the information you need to solve it precisely. 10.F
10、ermi is said to have once asked his university students how many piano tuners there were in Chicago. To answer the question, he recommended breaking it down into smaller, more manageable questions, and then having the courage to make some guesses and assumptions. How many people live in Chicago? Thr
11、ee million would be a reasonable estimate. How many people per family? Assume an average of four. How many families own pianos? Say one out of three. Then there were about 250,000 pianos in Chicago. How often would each be tuned? Maybe once every five years. That makes 50,000 tunings a year. How man
12、y pianos can one tuner tune in a day? Four? And how many in a year? Assuming 250 working days, one tuner can handle 1,000 pianos a year. 11.So theres work for approximately 50 piano tuners in Chicago which, as it turns out, is reasonably close to the actual number in the Yellow Pages.12.Why was gues
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