金融市场与净现值分析报告.pptx

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,Click here for title,3-,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,Click here for title,3-,1,Chapter Outline,3.1,The Financial Market Economy,3.2 Making Consumption Choices Over Time,3.3 The Competitive Market,3.4 The Basic Principle,3.5 Practicing the Principle,3.6 Illustrating the Investment Decision,3.7 Corporate Investment DecisionMaking,3.8 Summary and Conclusions,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第1页,3.1,The Financial Market Economy,Individuals and institutions have different income streams and different intertemporal consumption preferences.,Because of this,a market has arisen for money.The price of money is the interest rate.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第2页,The Financial Market Economy:Example,Consider a dentist who earns$200,000 per year and chooses to consume$80,000 per year.He has$120,000 in surplus money to invest.,He could loan$30,000 to each of 4 college seniors.They each promise to pay him back with interest after they graduate in one year.,Dentist,Student#1,Student#2,Student#3,Student#4,$30,000,$30,000,$30,000,$30,000,$30,000(1+,r,),$30,000(1+,r,),$30,000(1+,r,),$30,000(1+,r,),金融市场与净现值分析报告,第3页,The Financial Market Economy:Example,Rather than performing the credit analysis 4 times,he could loan the whole$120,000 to a financial intermediary in return for a promise to repay the$120,000 in one year with interest.,The intermediary in turn loans$30,000 to each of the 4 college seniors.,Student#1,Student#2,Student#3,Student#4,$30,000,$30,000,$30,000,Bank,$120,000,Dentist,$30,000,$30,000(1+,r,),$30,000(1+,r,),$30,000(1+,r,),$30,000(1+,r,),$120,000,(1+,r,),金融市场与净现值分析报告,第4页,The Financial Market Economy:Example,Financial intermediation can take three forms:,Size intermediation,In the example above,the bank took a large loan from the dentist and made small loans to the students.,Term intermediation,Commercial banks finance long-term mortgages with short-term deposits.,Risk intermediation,Financial intermediaries can tailor the risk characteristics of securities for borrowers and lenders with different degrees of risk tolerance.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第5页,Market Clearing,The job of balancing the supply of and demand for loanable funds is taken by the money market.,When the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded,the market is in equilibrium at the equilibrium price.,The price of money is the interest rate.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第6页,3.2,Making Consumption Choices over Time,An individual can alter his consumption across time periods through borrowing and lending.,We can illustrate this by graphing consumption today versus consumption in the future.,This graph will show intertemporal consumption opportunities.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第7页,Intertemporal Consumption Opportunity Set,$0,$20,000,$40,000,$60,000,$80,000,$100,000,$120,000,Consumption today,A person with$95,000 who faces a 10%interest rate has the following opportunity set.,One choice available is to consume$40,000 now;invest the remaining$55,000;consume$60,000 next year.,$0,$20,000,$40,000,$60,000,$80,000,$100,000,$120,000,Consumption at t+1,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第8页,Intertemporal Consumption Opportunity Set,$0,$20,000,$40,000,$60,000,$80,000,$100,000,$120,000,$0,$20,000,$40,000,$60,000,$80,000,$100,000,$120,000,Consumption today,Consumption at t+1,Another choice available is to consume$60,000 now;invest the remaining$35,000;consume$38,500 next year,.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第9页,Taking Advantage of Our Opportunities,$0,$20,000,$40,000,$60,000,$80,000,$100,000,$120,000,$0,$20,000,$40,000,$60,000,$80,000,$100,000,$120,000,Consumption today,Consumption at t+1,A persons preferences will tend to decide where on the opportunity set they will choose to be.,Ms.Patience,Ms.Impatience,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第10页,Changing Our Opportunities,$0,$20,000,$40,000,$60,000,$80,000,$100,000,$120,000,$0,$20,000,$40,000,$60,000,$80,000,$100,000,$120,000,Consumption today,Consumption at t+1,A rise in interest rates will make saving more attractive,and borrowing less attractive.,Consider an investor who has chosen to consume$40,000 now and to consume$60,000 next year.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第11页,3.3,The Competitive Market,In a competitive market:,Trading is costless.,Information about borrowing and lending is available,There are many traders;no individual can move market prices.,There can be only one equilibrium interest rate in a competitive marketotherwise arbitrage opportunities would arise.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第12页,3.4,The Basic Principle,The basic financial principle of investment decision making is this:,An investment must be at least as desirable as the opportunities available in the financial markets.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第13页,3.5,Practicing the Principle:A Lending Example,Consider an investment opportunity that costs$50,000 this year an provides a certain cash flow of$54,000 next year.,Is this a good deal?,It depends on the interest rate available in the financial markets.,The investment has an 8%return,if the interest rate available elsewhere is less than this,invest here.,Cash inflows,Time,Cash outflows,0,1,-$50,000,$54,000,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第14页,3.6,Illustrating the Investment Decision,Consider an investor who has an initial endowment of income of$40,000 this year and$55,000 next year.,Suppose that he faces a 10-percent interest rate and is offered the following investment.,Cash inflows,Time,Cash outflows,0,1,-$25,000,$30,000,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第15页,3.6,Illustrating the Investment Decision,$0,Consumption today,Our investor begins with the following opportunity set:endowment of$40,000 today,$55,000 next year and a 10%interest rate.,One choice available is to consume$15,000 now;invest the remaining$25,000 in the financial markets at 10%;consume$82,500 next year.,$0,$99,000,Consumption at t+1,$55,000,$82,500,$40,000,$15,000,$90,000,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第16页,3.6,Illustrating the Investment Decision,$0,Consumption today,A better alternative would be to invest in the project instead of the financial markets.,He could consume$15,000 now;invest the remaining$25,000 in the project at 20%;consume$85,000 next year.,$0,$99,000,Consumption at t+1,$55,000,$82,500,$40,000,$85,000,$15,000,$90,000,With borrowing or lending in the financial markets,he can achieve any pattern of cash flows he wantsany of which is better,than his original opportunities.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第17页,3.6,Illustrating the Investment Decision,$0,Consumption today,Note that we are better off in that we can command more consumption today or next year.,$0,$99,000,Consumption at t+1,$55,000,$82,500,$40,000,$85,000,$15,000,$101,500,$101,500=$15,000(1.10)+$85,000,$92,273=$15,000+$85,000(1.10),$90,000,$92,273,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第18页,Net Present Value,We can calculate how much better off in todays dollar the investment makes us by calculating the Net Present Value:.,Cash inflows,Time,Cash outflows,0,1,-$25,000,$30,000,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第19页,3.7,Corporate Investment DecisionMaking,Shareholders will be united in their preference for the firm to undertake positive net present value decisions,regardless of their personal intertemporal consumption preferences.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第20页,Corporate Investment DecisionMaking,Consumption today,Consumption at t+1,Positive NPV projects shift the shareholders opportunity set out,which is unambiguously good.,All shareholders agree on their preference for positive NPV projects,whether they are borrowers or lenders.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第21页,3.7,Corporate Investment DecisionMaking,In reality,shareholders do not vote on every investment decision faced by a firm and the managers of firms need decision rules to operate by.,All shareholders of a firm will be made better off if managers follow the NPV ruleundertake positive NPV projects and reject negative NPV projects.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第22页,The Separation Theorem,The separation theorem in financial markets says that all investors will want to accept or reject the same investment projects by using the NPV rule,regardless of their personal preferences.,Logistically,separating investment decision making from the shareholders is a basic requirement of the modern corporation.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第23页,3.8,Summary and Conclusions,Financial markets exist because people want to adjust their consumption over time.They do this by borrowing or lending.,An investment should be rejected if a superior alternative exists in the financial markets.,If no superior alternative exists in the financial markets,an investment has a positive net present value.,金融市场与净现值分析报告,第24页,