城市山洪灾害多目标评估国内外研究现状.doc

promotion of employment, form a reasonable and orderly pattern of income distribution, build a more fair and sustainable social security systems, medical and health system reform. The plenary, innovation of social governance, must focus on the maintenance of fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people, maximize factors, enhance social development, improving social governance, the interests of national security, ensure that the people live and work, social stability and order. 　　To improve social governance, stimulating social organization, innovative and effective system of preventing and resolving social conflicts, improving the public security system, set up the National Security Council, national security systems and national security strategy to ensure national security. Plenary session, the construction of ecological civilization, you must establish systems of ecological system, using the system to protect the ecological environment. 　　To improve natural resources asset property right system and use control, red line of delimitation of ecological protection, resources paid use system and ecological compensation system in ecological environment protection management system reform. Plenary session, centering on building a listening party command, can win and having a fine style of the people's army, a strong army under the new situation of the party Goals, restricting the development of national defense and army building is solved outstanding contradictions and problems, innovation and development of military theory, enhance military strategic guidance, improve the military strategy in the new period, building a modern military force system with Chinese characteristics. 　　To deepen the adjustment of personnel system reform in the army, military policy and system reform, promote the development of military and civilian integration depth. Plenary session stressed that comprehensive reform must be to strengthen and improve the party's leadership, give full play to the core role of the party commands the overall situation and coordinating all parties, improving the party's leading water ... Margin. Challenged the leadership of the Communist Party of China, Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong thought by Deng Xiao-ping's flag, replaced by three representatives and the harmonic society. 　　The former Communist Party spirit and social cohesion point of almost all political makeover. Characteristics of socialism public ownership is shifting to private ownership, planned regulation and market regulation, the proletarian regime controlled by the elite. Of universal equality, fairness and basic principles of distribution system is socialist society, however after economic monopolized by powerful, vested interests grow, employers do not have the same status, hardly seems fair social distribution. 　　State key protection of capital interests rather than the interests of citizens, had been hits the bottom of the proletariat
城市山洪灾害多目标评估国内外研究现状
　　国外普遍重视城市洪灾的评估研究, 尽管将洪灾评估进行多目标多层次的系统研究尚未见到报道, 但许多学者已认识到其重要性, 涉及各单项评估评价研究文献较多, 主要集中于洪水灾害的风险分析与制图, 特别是1988年联合国组织编制的《根据洪水风险分析及风险图改进防洪系统专家组会议会刊》具有代表性, 指出了洪水风险性评价与制图的原理、方法和实例应用等[9]。自20世纪80年代以来, 几乎所有受洪灾影响严重的国家、地区的城市都开展了综合性洪水损失预防和管理, 其共同特点是选择示范试验区或流域进行风险性评估, 这种非工程性措施的减灾效果已普遍得到认可。美国开展城市洪灾损失评估是在70年代初, 主要采取二种途径进行评估。一是美国联邦保险管理局通过建立水深与损失的关系模式来评估经济损失, 其核心内容是从灾害原始资料数据中建立了不同房屋结构和家庭财产损失与水深的关系; 二是美国工程师团巴尔的摩区则认为上述方法估算损失所需的时间较长, 投入人力和财力较大, 而且有效使用期较短, 于是选择了概率化的水深与损失率关系, 这种方法能够从其关系曲线上查出一定水深下的损失百分数, 如果有无限多个房屋重建值, 乘以损失百分数, 就能快速得出相应的无限多个水深与损失关系, 目前已成功地在工程师团分区和某些州立机构中得以应用, 而且已被证明是城市洪灾损失评估的一种较好的方法。
　　加拿大是通过对洪泛区的城市房屋结构和财产预先普查, 并进行详细的分类和建立计算机档案, 在此基础上计算不同水深条件下, 各种类型的住宅损失值, 同时算出全部住宅的总损失平均值和标准方差;然后将损失在均值的一个标准差内的住宅称为第II区(即平均区), 损失小于均值减一个标准差的住宅称为第I区(即低区), 损失大于均值加一个标准差的住宅称为第III区(即高区)。根据对每区内各种类型住宅的平均损失, 最后绘制出三个区的水深-损失曲线。日本洪灾损失评估是先确定流量等级, 再进行地形调查;在洪水调查中对所选择的每一等级流量确定其淹没面积, 从而确定洪泛区内的洪灾损失率;最后是进行财产调查, 按各种资产的损失率乘以资产总值, 计算出相应流量的洪灾损失值, 根据评估结果绘制其流量和洪灾损失值的相关图。
　　城市洪水灾害问题日益引起人们的广泛关注, 我国“八五”、“九五”科技攻关计划都将其列入重大研究项目, 在城市洪水灾害防御方面都开展了试验示范研究, 取得了丰富的成果,为城市防灾减灾提供了科学依据。在全国668个大中城市的总体规划中都已开始涉及城市防减灾内容, 北京、上海、天津等特大型城市“九五”科技发展规划中专辟“减灾篇”[1,2];已制定的中国国家减灾规划正是在各主要城市减灾规划基础上完成的, 城市综合减灾研究是跨世纪中国最值得关注的保障技术之一。
　　20世纪80年代以来,GIS技术在洪水灾害评估中得到了广泛的应用, 同时对我国一些重要城市, 例如广州、镇江等大城市都开展了基于GIS的洪水灾害评价集成研究,取得了显著的防洪减灾效果。但城市山洪具有其不同于平原区的城市洪水的特点, 其发灾突然、空间尺度小、分布分散而数量多、成灾迅速, 其水文和动力参数难以进行观测取得, 并且采用遥感技术也难以获得其泛滥范围等多种特殊性, 使其研究难度较大, 有关文献报道较少。进入90年代以来, 我国一些学者也开始重视这种特殊洪水灾害的研究, 例如, 赵士鹏博士应用GIS技术和分析模型相结合的方法探讨了山洪灾情的风险性评价的理论与方法。
　　洪灾经济损失评估在我国也日益引起政府部门和学术界的广泛关注[20~23], 从80年代以来, 我国水利、救灾部门都将其作为一项重要的课题进行研究。例如1993年由水利部南京水文所完成的水利减灾研究基金项目《洪灾经济损失的调查与评估》是在总结我国现有洪灾经济损失评估方法的基础上, 吸取国外洪灾经济损失调查评估方面的有益经验, 提出了适合不同受灾对象、具有一定可操作性的洪灾经济损失评估原则和计算方法。一些学者也对洪灾损失评估的指标体系、损失分类、计算方法进行了探讨, 积累了经验, 国家防总对洪涝灾害损失评估也提出了评估内容和统计指标。但是由于洪涝灾害损失评估问题的复杂性和评估对象的多样性, 特别是涉及城市山洪的特殊性, 因此很有必要进一步探讨适合城市山洪灾害特点的损失评估方法, 并在实际应用中不断完善, 逐步提高其评估水平和实用性, 使这项工作更加规范化、科学化。
　　纵观国内外城市山洪评估的研究状况,20世纪90年代以前处于探索阶段,90年代以后, 城市山洪灾害研究内容不断丰富, 理论水平不断提高, 发展到同社会经济的易损失性相结合的多目标评价方法, 评估指标体系和内容也日趋完善和合理, 评估的科学性日益增强,并逐渐形成了相对完善和规范的灾前风险评价系统和灾后灾情评估系统。但是, 山洪灾害的集成评估作为一门新兴的边缘交叉学科, 其评估理论与方法仍在不断的探索与完善之中, 在一些方面仍需要加强, 例如技术手段上应该充分挖掘RS和GIS方法在评估工作中的应用,提高评价精度和预测的可靠性, 充分发挥评估在城市防洪减灾决策中的作用。摘自《城市山洪灾害多目标评估方法探讨》更多相关文献请参考地理国情监测云平台。

薄壁不锈钢管具有安全耐用、环保卫生、价格合理、美观豪华等优异的综合性能，已大量应用于建筑给水和直饮水管道。众所皆知，管道的躯干是由管材组成的薄壁不锈钢管具有安全耐用、环保卫生、价格合理、美观豪华等优异的综合性能，已大量应用于建筑给水和直饮水管道。众所皆知，管道的躯干是由管材组成的Obviously, face China's Socialist system, the Communist Party is not the party. In that case, political chaos has been very tight. Is remodeling or reconstruction, is a correction or a stove. Whether to turn right or left, is back to the source or put forward new political ideas. 　　This is to determine the road problems in China, is also the key out of the deep water of the reform of the economic system. 　　After 18, the new Central collective leadership attaches great importance to political orientation. 　　First, the "Central eight articles" as a starting point, starting from the Central Government's self-restraint, which preaches and pro-image, brought fresh feeling to the community. 　　Secondly, before reform and opening up and reform and opening two periods after non-negative, untying the tangle of the society a long time on this issue. Third, a new generation of party leaders on various occasions to Mao Ze-Dong and Mao Ze-Dong's thought of evaluation has room for manoeuvre, through to the ruling ideology of Mao Zedong thought, is the call of the soul to the Socialist Revolution and construction. Empty talks jeopardize national interests and try again, is an affirmation of Deng Xiao-ping's reform ideas. 　　These strong political signal showing a new generation of political leaders is still keeping to the Socialist road. 　　Four is revisiting the "talking to Mao Ze-Dong's historical cycle of" high profile anti-corruption and the importance of the Constitution, reorganization is bad style of officialdom, was to civilize people obey the law, while improving the color change of the regime of vigilance. 　　Five is to reform into deeper waters and stressed that top-level design, this is a review on the reform and opening up in the past, is also looking for a way out. 　　Six foreign and Russia closer, the flexible attitude on the issue of the Korean peninsula, Sino-Japanese fishing hardline China on the island out of the "patient" and low profile shadow began to gradually plan development. Signs show that the new leadership began to make a left turn in politics. 　　However, as of right now, not only ideological confusion in the community, the new leadership's thinking is messy. New leaders both stressed the need to implement the Constitution, stressed the need to turn off the power in a cage. Also stresses that Mao Zedong thought cannot be lost, 30 years after the reform and opening up 30 years ago can not deny each other. Both advocate democracy and release "seven does not speak of" files of political constraints. Neither deny the history of the CPC Central Committee on several issues ...
Comrades: today brings together members, mainly in order to provide a platform to Exchange and learn from each other in order to facilitate our work. Just now, we focus on taxation, planning and stability, safety, project construction, typical topics such as private facts presentation and interaction, and towns currently exist in the in-depth analysis of the problems to be solved, to explore new methods to solve the problem. It can be said that summing up the achievement, no grandstanding; analysis