市场调查方法第九章.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,2020/7/19 Sunday,#,2026/11/15,市场调查方法第九章,LEARNING OUTCOMES,Create an experimental,independent variable through a valid experimental manipulation of its value,Understand and minimize the systematic experimental error,Know ways of minimizing experimental demand characteristics,Avoid unethical experimental practices,Weigh the trade-off between internal and external validity,Recognize the appropriate uses of testmarketing,After studying this chapter,you should be able to,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,The Nature of Experiments,Experiment Defined,A research investigation in which conditions are controlled.,Experimental Research,Allows a researcher to control the research situation so that,causal,relationships among variables may be evaluated.,Independent variables,are expected to determine the outcomes of interest.,Dependent variables,are the outcomes of interest to the researcher and the decision makers.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Basic Issues in Experimental Design,Manipulation of the independent variable,Selection and assignment of experimental subjects,Control over extraneous variables,Selection and measurement of the dependent variable,Experimental Design,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Issues in Experimental Design,Manipulation of the Independent Variable,Independent variable:,a variable with values that can be manipulated,or altered,independently of any other variable.,Experimental Treatment,The term referring to the way an experimental variable is manipulated.,Experimental group:,a group of subjects to whom an experimental treatment is administered.,Control group:,a group of subjects to whom no experimental treatment is administered.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Experimental Design(contd),Selection and Measurement of the Dependent Variable,Dependent variable:,the criterion by which the results of an experiment are judged;a variable expected to be dependent on the experimenters manipulation of the independent variable.,Selecting dependent variables that are relevant and truly represent an outcome of interest is crucial.,Choosing the right dependent variable is part of the problem definition process,t,horough problem definition will help the researcher select the most important dependent variable(s)whose results will help managers in decision making.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Experimental Design(contd),Selection and Assignment of Test Units,Test units:the subjects or entities whose responses to treatment are measured or observed.,Sample Selection And Random Sampling Errors,Systematic or nonsampling error,Subject selection,experimental design,and unrecognized extraneous variables,Overcoming sampling errors,Randomization,Matching,Repeated measures,Control over extraneous variables,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Experimental Design(contd),Sampling Errors(contd),Experimental Confound,When there is an alternative explanation beyond the experimental variables for any observed differences in the dependent variable.,Once a potential confound is identified,the validity of the experiment is severely questioned.,Sources:,Sampling error,Systematic error,Later-identified extraneous variables,Careful experimental design can reduce the likelihood of confounds.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Demand Characteristics,Demand Characteristic,An experimental design element or procedure that unintentionally provides subjects with hints about the research hypothesis.,Demand Effect,Occurs when demand characteristics actually affect the dependent variable.,Experimenter Bias,The influence of the presence,actions,or comments of an experimenter on subjects behavior.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Demand Characteristics(contd),Reducing Demand Characteristics,Use an experimental disguise.,Isolate experimental subjects.,Use a“blind”experimental administrator.,Administer only one treatment level to each subject.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,EXHIBIT 9.1,By Smiling or Looking Solemn,Experimenters Can Modify Subjects Behavior,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Establishing Control,Constancy of Conditions,Subjects in all experimental groups are exposed to identical conditions except for the differing experimental treatments.,Counterbalancing,Attempts to eliminate the confounding effects of order of presentation by varying the order of presentation(exposure)of treatments to subject groups.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Ethical Issues in Experimentation,Debriefing experimental subjects,Communicating the purpose of the experiment,Explaining the researchers hypotheses about the nature of consumer behavior,Attempts to interfere with a competitors test-marketing efforts,Such acts as changing prices or increasing advertising to influence(confound)competitors test-marketing results are ethically questionable.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Fundamental Questions in Experimentation,Laboratory Experiment,A situation in which the researcher has more complete control over the research setting and extraneous variables.,Field Experiments,Research projects involving experimental manipulations that are implemented in a natural environment.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,EXHIBIT 9.,5,The Artificiality of Laboratory versus Field Experiments,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Issues of Experimental Validity,Internal Validity,The extent that an experimental variable is truly responsible for any variance in the dependent variable.,Did the experiment answer the question of causal effect?,Did the manipulation do what it was supposed(predicted)to do?,Manipulation Checks,A validity test of an experimental manipulation to make sure that the manipulation does produce differences in the independent variable.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Extraneous Variables Affecting Internal Validity,Internal Validity,Maturation,Testing,Instrumentation,Selection,Mortality,History,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Effects of Extraneous Variables on Validity,History Effect,Occurs when some change other than the experimental treatment occurs during the course of an experiment that affects the dependent variable.,Cohort Effect,A change in the dependent variable that occurs because members of one experimental group experienced different historical situations than members of other experimental groups.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Effects of Extraneous Variables(contd),Maturation Effects,Effects that are a function of time and the naturally occurring events that coincide with growth and experience.,Testing Effects,A nuisance effect occurring when the initial measurement or test alerts or primes subjects in a way that affects their response to the experimental treatments.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Effects of Extraneous Variables(contd),Instrumentation Effect,A change in the wording of questions,a change in interviewers,or a change in other procedures causes a change in the dependent variable.,Selection Effect,Sample bias that results from differential selection of respondents for the comparison groups,or a sample selection error.,Mortality Effect(Sample Attrition),Occurs when some subjects withdraw from the experiment before it is completed.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Issues of Experimental Validity(contd),External Validity,The accuracy with which experimental results can be generalized beyond the experimental subjects.,Student surrogates:Atypical?,Trade-Offs Between Internal and External Validity,Artificial laboratory experiments usually are high in internal validity,while naturalistic field experiments generally have less internal validity,but greater external validity.,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Classification of Experimental Designs,Basic Experimental Design,An experimental design in which only one variable is manipulated.,Diagramming Experimental Designs:Symbols,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Examples of Quasi-Experimental Designs,Quasi-experimental Designs,Experimental designs that do not involve random allocation of subjects to treatment combinations.,One Shot Design(After Only):XO,1,One Group PretestPosttest:O,1,XO,2,Static Group Design:ExperimentalXO,1,ControlO,2,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Alternative Experimental Designs,Pretest,Posttest Control Group Design(Before,After with Control),Experimental,R O,1,X O,2,Control,R O,3,X O,4,Posttest Only Control Group(,After-Only with Control),Experimental,R X O,1,Control,R O,2,Compromise Designs,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,EXHIBIT 9.3,Product Preference Measure in an Experiment,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Test-Marketing,Test Marketing,An experimental procedure that provides an opportunity to test a new product or a new marketing plan under realistic market conditions to measure sales or profit potential.,Controlled Experimentation,Not just trying something out,But scientific testing,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Uses of Test-Marketing,Identifying Product Weaknesses,Forecasting New Product Success,Testing the Marketing Mix,Test-Marketing,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Factors to Consider in Test-market Selection,Test-market Selection,Demographic Composition and Lifestyles,Competitive Situation,Media Coverage and Efficiency,MediaIsolation,Self-Contained Trading Area,OverusedTest-markets,PopulationSize,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,Key Terms and Concepts,Independent variable,Experimental treatment,Experimental group,Control group,Dependent variable,Test units,Systematic(or non-sampling error),Randomization,Matching,Repeated measures,Confound,Demand characteristic,Demand effect,Constancy of conditions,Counterbalancing,Debriefing,Laboratory experiment,Tachistoscope,Field experiments,Internal validity,Manipulation check,History effect,Cohort effect,2007 Thomson/South-Western.All rights reserved.,