综观伊拉克时机.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,04 十一月 2026,综观伊拉克时机,AGENDA,Overview Iraq,Economic scenarios for Iraq,Required investments,AGENDA,Overview Iraq,Economic scenarios for Iraq,Required investments,Total area:437,000 m,2,Limited arable land,Arable land:11%,Permanent crops:1%,Desert:88%,Largest governates,Baghdad(8.0m),Nineveh(2.1m),Basra(2.0m),Varying climate(Baghdad),Summer temp:35-50,Winter temp:5-15,Rainfall:155mm/year,Source:Country Watch,CIA world fact book,Car transport,39,000 km paved roads,765,000 privately registered passenger cars,266,000 privately registered trucks,Air,Major airports in Baghdad,Basra and Mosul,Three major railway routes,BaghdadKirkukIrbil,BaghdadMosulYurubiyah,BaghdadMaagalUmm Qasr,Telecom,3%penetration,no mobile network,Utilities,250 water treatment facilities,Power generation capacity of 9500(pre 1990),currently at 1800MW,Geography and climate,Infrastructure,The majority of Iraq is characterized by desert,OVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPHY,Source:World outlook,EIU country risk report Iraq,50%of population younger than 16 years,28%of population is labor force,Approximately 51%males,75%of population resides in urban areas,There is an estimated 1m2m Iraqis living in exile,Fertility rate 4.55 children per women,Adult literacy at 54%,1.5-2.5 million foreign workers,Key facts,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2002,CAGR 3%,DEVELOPMENT IRAQI POPULATION 1980 TO 2002,Iraqi population amounts to more than 24 millions,Million,Source:CIA world fact book,100%=24.2m,Others,Arabs-Shia Muslims,Kurds Sunni Muslims,4,62,12,Arabs Sunni Muslims,22,ESTIMATE,POPULATION SIZE BY ETHNIC GROUP,Shia Muslims form Iraqs ethnic majority,%,Adult literacy at 54%(vs.75%in Iran),*From 6 to 23 years,Source:EIU country profile Iraq 2002,1980,1998,EDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES*-1980 VS.1998,An increasing number of children does not receive formal education,ESTIMATE,Source:Country Watch,Proven reserves,Unproven potential,Total,Gas,Trillion m,3,2001,Oil,Billion barrels,2001,OVERVIEW OF IRAQS NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVES,Iraq has one of the largest natural oil and gas reserves,ESTIMATE,Source:BP Statistical review,2002,1.Saudi Arabia,2.Iraq,3.UAE,4.Kuwait,5.Iran,Oil,proved reserves,Billion barrels,2001,Gas,proved reserves,Trillion m,3,2001,1.Russia,2.Iran,3.Qatar,4.Saudi Arabia,5.UAE,10.Iraq,RANKING OF BIGGEST NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVES WORDWIDE,which are the second largest in oil and the tenth largest in gas,ESTIMATE,*Purchasing power parity method,current prices,Source:CIA World fact book;Country Watch;EIU country risk report on Iraq 2003,2002,50-60,25-35,1980,DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP*-1980 TO 2002,Over the past decade,Iraqs real GDP fell by 50%,USD billion,ESTIMATE,-50%,GDP estimates for 2002 subject to wide variation(USD 24-60 billion),*Purchasing power parity method,current prices,Source:CIA World Factbook;Country Watch,2002,3.8-4.5,1.0-1.4,1980,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP*PER CAPITA-1980 TO 2002,and purchasing power parity on individual level even further,USD thousands,GDP/capita estimates subject to wide variation(USD 1.000-2.500),-70%,Source:Global Insight WMM 2.Q.2003,Iraq,Saudi,Arabia,COMPARISON OF GDP DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS.SAUDI ARABIA-1970 TO 2000,Iraq has suffered a significant reduction in GDP over last 25 years,in billion USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000,Source:Global Insight WMM 2.Q.2003,Iraq,Saudi,Arabia,COMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS.SAUDI ARABIA-1970 TO 2000,In the late 70ties Iraqs GDP per capita was at par with Saudi Arabia,in 000 USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000,*Based on a GDP of USD30 billion and a population of 24 million,Source:EIU country profile Iraq,Jordan,Iran,Iraq,Saudi Arabia,Syria,*,ESTIMATE,COMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA-2002,Iraqs current GDP per capita is comparable to Syria and Iran,USD thousands,Source:Economist intelligence unit 2002;OANDA.COM,Iraqi inflation rates,%,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,Exchange rates,Iraqi Dinar per USD(black market rate),Huge budget deficits lead to“printing of money”,BUT:Official exchange rate has been ID 0,31 to the USD since 1983,2001,2002,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,Current exchange rate ID 900-1.000=1 USD,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENT OF INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES 1996 TO 2002,Iraq has shown high inflation coupled with strong depreciation of the currency,Source:EIU country data,External debt,$bn,Iraq,Syria,Jordan,Iran,230-485,10,91,113,%of GPD,60-130,Main causes of uncertainty are,Accrued interest,“Assistance”funds in Iran-Iraq war,Claims following Gulf war 1991,ESTIMATE,COMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES-2001,Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankrupt,*Estimates range from$103.4$129.4bn,Source:Reuters;Institute for international Economics,25,18,13,10,Saudi Arabia,Gulf States excl.Kuwait,Kuwait,Paris Club excl Russia,France,8,Russia,8,France,2,USA,3,Commercial Bank Creditors,2,Bulgaria,2,Poland,Czech,Romania,1,Multilateral Institutions,1,Yugoslavia,2,Trade Claims,24,Others,Total external debt,119*,14-25,Kuwait reparation payments,133 144,Total claims,Iraq regarded the loans from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait as grant payments for its 1980 war against Iran,Comments,Creditor,Amount principal and overdue interest,ESTIMATE,BREAKDOWN OF IRAQI LIABILITIES 2001,Iraqs liabilities are mainly loans from the Gulf states granted to Iraq in the 80ties during the war with Iran,(USD bn),The IMF and World Bank are owed less than$200m,Source:EIU Country profile Iraq 2002,France,Australia,China,Jordan,Top 5 import sources,Top 5 export destinations,U.S.,France,Jordan,Italy,Spain,Italy,Mainly oil exports within the food for oil program,MAJOR IRAQI TRADING PARTNERS-2001,France is most important supplier,the US most important customer of Iraqi products,USD million,AGENDA,Overview Iraq,Economic scenarios for Iraq,Recent developments,Source:McKinsey,“Good standard”,1,Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy grows modestly at a CAGR of,3-5%,over the next 10 years(overall GDP growth incl.oil 9-11%),“Best in Class”,2,Assumes the non-oil part of the the Iraqi economy grows strongly at a CAGR of,7-9%,over the next 10 years(overall GDP growth incl.oil 11-13%),“Distinctive”,3,Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy grows aggressively at a CAGR,12-15%,over the next 10 years(overall GDP growth incl.oil 13-15%),ESTIMATE,FOR DISCUSSION,THREE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS,Iraqs In the World Class scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 2013,Non-oil,Sectors,Oil production level 2008,Oil production level 2013,4-5 million barrels per day,6-7 million barrels per day,Oil,Sector,+,*)Population in 2003=24 million,2008=29 million,2013=33 million,Source:McKinsey,GDP development 2003-2013,(in bn USD),GDP per capita*2003-2013,(in 000 USD),ESTIMATE,FOR DISCUSSION,THREE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS,In the distinctive scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 2013,1,“Good Standard”,1.8-2.2,2.2-2.6,2003,2013,2008,1.2,53-63,73-86,2003,2013,2008,30,14%,6%,11%,3%,2,“Best in class”,2.0-2.3,2.5-2.9,2003,2013,2008,1.2,57-67,83-98,2003,2013,2008,30,16%,8%,12%,5%,3,“Distinctive”,2.2-2.6,3.1-3.8,2003,2013,2008,1.2,63-75,102-126,2003,2013,2008,30,18%,11%,15%,8%,COMPARISON OF IRAQ WITH SAUDI ARABIA,Source:Global Insight WMM 2.Q.2003,GDP per capita comparison,000 USD,GDP comparison,bn USD,65,145,20,155,30,225,5,16,1,10,1,10,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,1980,1990,2003,1980,1990,2003,70-90,300-320,80-100,300-320,100-130,300-320,3.1-4.9,9-11,2.5-2.9,9-11,2.2-2.6,9-11,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,GDP,(bn USD),GDP per capita,(000 USD),GDP,(bn USD),GDP per capita,(000 USD),GDP,(bn USD),GDP per capita,(000 USD),2,3,1,2013,2013,ESTIMATE,FOR DISCUSSION,AGENDA,Overview Iraq,Economic scenarios for Iraq,Required investments,*Assuming a capital productivity of 0.2,Source:McKinsey analysis,GDP 2003,(bn USD),30,200-300,Investment required*,(bn USD),1,GDP 2013,(bn USD),70-90,Investment required*,(bn USD),2,250-350,GDP 2013,(bn USD),80-100,Investment required*,(bn USD),3,350-500,GDP 2013,bn USD,100-130,ESTIMATE OF REQUIRED INVESTMENTS INTO IRAQ OVER THE NEXT DECADE,To achieve the World Class scenario Iraqs economy requires USD 250-350 billion in investments,most of which will have to be FDI,over the next decade,ESTIMATE,FOR DISCUSSION,Assuming an average capital productivity of 0.2,Source:Global Insight;McKinsey analysis,Oil and gas,Construction,Community,social and personal services,Agriculture,Retail/Wholesale,Communication incl.telecom,Manufacturing,Transportation,Financial services incl.Real estate,Other(incl.Utilities),Sector size-2008,Share of GDP in%in 2008,60,10,7,5,5,4,3,3,2,1,34-42,6,4,3,3,2-3,2,1-2,1,1,100,ESTIMATED POTENTIAL SECTOR SIZE,By 2008,Iraqs economy is likely to continue to be dominated by the Oil/gas sector,ESTIMATE,bn USD,57-67,Total,Scenario 2:GDP growth rate at 11-13%,GDP as an indicator of the capability of an economy to add value,Source:Global Insight,McKinsey analysis,By 2010 Iraq can generate annual oil revenues of about USD 44 billion(assuming 80%export and a price of USD 20 per barrel),Source:PFC Economy,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,Raising production to 6m b/d requires USD 30-35 billion of investments,Rehabilitating of existing infrastructure will require USD 3-6 billion of investments,ESTIMATE,ESTIMATED IRAQI OIL PRODUCTION,Increasing Iraqs oil capacity will require significant investments,m barrel per day,Source:McKinsey,Oil&gas,Reestablishing and increasing oil production capacity to 6-7 million barrels per day by 2010,USD 35-40 billion,Utilities,Re-construction of basic infrastructure such as transport facilities,telecommunications and utilities(power capacity currently at 1.800MW compared to 9.500MW pre 1990),USD 10-15 billion just for electricity and telecom,Estimates for rebuilding Iraq vary from about$20 billion a year for several years to as much as$600 billion over a decade because the scale of reconstruction is difficult to estimate,Education,Rebuilding and upgrading of primary,secondary and tertiary educational institutions,USD 6-12 billion,Health care,Reestablishing pre 1980 health care facilities and standards,USD 10-20,billion,ESTIMATE,Transport,infrastructure,Rebuilding 40,000 km of paved roads,3 main railway lines,3 main airports,2 ports,Several billions,Housing/offices,Rebuilding Iraqs basic hard infrastructure will be challenging and will require substantial investments over the next decade,ESTIMATED INVESTMENT RQUIREMENTS,Industrial,infrastructure,Rebuilding Iraqs industrial base(petrochemical,building materials,mining,consumer goods,etc.),?,Source:McKinsey,United States Department of Defense,USAID Web site,USAID CONTRACTS/GRANTS,Awarded contracts and grants,Personnel Support,(Awarded to International Resources Group,7/2/03),Seaport Administration,(Awarded to Stevedoring Services of America,24/3/03),Primary and Secondary Education,(Awarded to Creative Associates,11/4/03),Local Governance,(Awarded to Research Triangle Institute,11/4/03),Capital Construction,(Awarded to Bechtel,17/4/03),Theater Logistical Support,(Inter-agency agreement awarded to the Air Force Contract Augmentation Program(AFCAP)on 17/2/03),Airport Administration,(awarded to SkyLink Air and Logistics support on 5/5/2003),Public Health,(Awarded to Abt Associates,30/4/03),Back to School Campaign,(Awarded to UNICEF,8/4/03),Health Water and Sanitation Services,(Awarded to UNICEF on 28/3/03),Health Strengthening Systems,(Awarded to WHO,28/3/03),Community Action Program,(Awarded to number of relief organizations incl.Mercy Corps,IRD,Save the Children Federation,27/05/2003),NOT COMPREHENSIVE,Up to USD 680 million,Up to USD 168 million,Up to USD 63 million,UASAID has awarded an number of contracts and there are about USD 6.7 billion in funds available to rebuild Iraq,Available fund sources:,USD 1.7 billion of frozen Iraqi government assets in the US.,USD 700 million of Iraqi government cash seized in Iraq.,USD 1.9 billion in pledges from the international community and other assistance offers.,USD 2.5 billion appropriated from US Congress for reconstruction.,Source:McKinsey,Create an enabling and open economic environment,Address key economic governance issues such as taxation,land ownership,company laws,industry de-/regulation and investor protection,The implemented political and economic governance model will be essential for building investor confidence,Implementing the right long-term economic governance model will be essential for attracting the foreign investment necessary to rebuild Iraq,FOR DISCUSSION,KEY REQUIREMENTS TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS,Build a constitutional state,Implement the key building blocks for an constitutional state with an independent judicial system,Establish an accountable civil service,Build the foundation for an efficient,effective and accountable administration,Source:Press clippings,“Iraq will be an example of a new Arab Charter that champions internal reform,greater political participation,economic openness and free trade”,George Bush,SELECTED COUTES,“Iraq is a test case of the US ability to engender democracy and market economics in the middle east”,Senior US Official,“The US is hoping to establish a free market economy in Iraq:privatisation of the state-owned businesses forming a stock market and fundamental tax reform”,WSJ,Iraq is likely to have an economic framework that is influenced by the US model,FOR DISCUSSION,