投资银行在产业中的应用.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,投资银行在产业中的应用,*,PPT,文档演模板,Office,PPT,投资银行在产业中的应用,2026/11/4,投资银行在产业中的应用,Table of Contents,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM2,Section 1,Utility Sector Update,Section 2,Perspectives on Recent Strategic Activity,Section 3,Energy Policy Act,Section 4,Transmission Environment Update,Appendix A,Bio,Timothy R.Schwarz,投资银行在产业中的应用,Section 1,Utility Sector Update,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM4,投资银行在产业中的应用,Utility Sector Update,A Brave New World of Growth is Emerging,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM5,Growth stocks are starting to make a comeback after 5 consecutive years of trailing value stocks,Year-to-date performance supports our view,as growth,measured by the Barra indexes,has marginally outperformed value.More telling could be that growth has triumphed over value during each of the last six months,However,unlike past rebounds in growth stocks,we expect a GARP orientation to dominate during this cycle,Earnings growth and dividend growth have reconnected after the long absence that defined the 1990s,1,Correlation Between Dividend Growth and Earnings Growth,Source,S&P,Thomson Financial,Morgan Stanley Research,Source,S&P,Thomson Financial,Morgan Stanley Research,Source,Ibbotson,Morgan Stanley Research,Index of Relative Strength of Growth vs.Value Effectiveness,Source,Morgan Stanley Research,Apr 77,Oct 84,Jul 94,Nifty,Fifty,Peak,EnergySector,Peak,Kuwait/Recession,Tech 2000,Growth,Value,Dj Vu:We Think Growth Investors Are Looking at Something Akin to the 1994-1997 Period,S&P500 Growth Relative to S&P 500 Value Annual Total Return,Growth,Value,投资银行在产业中的应用,Utility Sector Update,Utility Sector Sensitivity to Interest Rates,Notes,1.Forecast as of August 8,2005;all forecast values are for the end of the indicated period,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM6,With the Fed tightening 10 consecutive times,U.S.long-term interest rates have not risen in line with expectations,U.S.utilities have not been as sensitive to interest rate movements as historically observed,Morgan Stanley forecasts that the 10 and 30 year US Treasuries will reach 4.75%and 5.0%,respectively,by the end of the year,2,Source,FactSet and Morgan Stanley Research,S&P Utility Index FY1 P/E and 30-Year Treasury Yield,P/E(x)Yield(%),Source,Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley Research and The Wall Street Journal,Interest Rate Outlook,(1),%,投资银行在产业中的应用,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM7,Utility Sector Update,Utility Sector Valuation Relative to Broader Market,3,Current valuations are not compelling as the sector is trading close to one standard deviation above its long-term average on most metrics,Valuations also are unattractive relative to the broader market,Utility sector trading at 107%of the S&P 500 on a forward P/E basis,above the 5-year historical average of 74%,Source,FactSet,Bloomberg,Morgan Stanley Research,Source,FactSet,Bloomberg,Morgan Stanley Research,Notes,Morgan Stanley Research data as of September 6,2005,Market data as of September 6,2005,Relative Valuation(S&P Utility Index vs.S&P 500 Index),投资银行在产业中的应用,Utility Sector Update,Investor Perception of the Utility Sector,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM8,Morgan Stanley recently conducted an informal survey of the top 25 investors in the utility sector asking two fundamental questions on current valuation levels and their sustainability,4,Question#1:“The outperformance of the utility industry relative to other sectors for the past 12-18 months has surprised many in the investment community,what do you think are the principal factors supporting this phenomenon?”,Macro Factors,Interest rate environment,Risk-adjusted growth relative to broader market,Lack of direction for broader economy,Tax law changes,Sector Specific Factors,Commodity price environment,Constructive regulatory environment,PUHCA repeal,Question#2:“Looking out over the next 12-24 months,do you think this outperformance will be sustainable?”,Macro Factors,Interest rate environment(Fed actions and shape of the yield curve),Growth in other sectors(i.e.,alternative investment opportunities),Economy(slow-down=sustainability of outperformance/growth=underperformance),Sector Specific Factors,Special situation stories can only turn around once,M&A/strategic environment,Regulatory environment/ability to“pass through”costs to customer,投资银行在产业中的应用,Utility Sector Update,Analyzing Utilities Based on Commodity Exposure,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM9,Utilities with commodity growth“kickers”continue to be in favor,however,fully regulated names have also performed well over the past six months,5,2006E P/E,(x),Source,FactSet,YTD Share Price Change,(%),Source,FactSet,Low,Commodity Exposure,High,Low,Commodity Exposure,High,(1),(6),(2),(3),(4),(7),(5),(8),(6),(2),(3),(4),(7),(5),Notes,Includes RRI,NRG,DYN and CPN,Includes D,TXU,WMB,EP,Includes DUK,FPL,CEG,SRE,DTE,TE,Includes EXC,ETR,EIX,AEE,PNM,Includes FE,AEP,PPL,CIN,DPL,Includes PNW,PSD,IDA,AVA,Includes SO,PCG,ED,PGN,XEL,POM,NU,Includes RRI,NRG and DYN.CPN was excluded because its YTD share price change was-25.4%,投资银行在产业中的应用,Projected Beta vs.Forward P/E,0.4=Low Risk/1.0=High Risk,Business Profile vs.Forward P/E,2=Low Risk/7=High Risk,Utility Sector Update,Does EPS Growth Matter?,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM10,Given the spotted track record of the utility sector over the past three years,investors are largely discounting EPS growth rates greater than 5%,Taking on greater business risk,in the search for incremental EPS growth,is not necessarily being rewarded appropriately by the investment community for the commensurate risk,The market does not see significant value in distinguishing between 4-6%growth for a couple of year period vs.2-3%long-term growth when visibility is limited to the regulatory treatment of rate base and timing of rate increases,6,Estimated Growth Rates vs.2006E P/E,Source,FactSet,IBES,Projected Beta,IBES 2006E P/E,Sources,FactSet,IBES and S&P Credit Reports,IBES 2006E P/E,S&P Business Profile Rating,Sources,FactSet,IBES and Barra,投资银行在产业中的应用,Utility Sector Update,What is the Market Rewarding?,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM11,There continues to be a negative relationship between growth and P/E multiples,Market is skeptical of Utilities achieving stated growth objectives above 5%,Premium is being placed on lower risk,low growth strategies(i.e.,stick to core competencies),The market is also placing premium valuations on companies that are returning cash to shareholders if they dont have a use for it in their core business,High dividend paying stocks are being rewarded by the market,Conclusion:Any“growth”investments face a high hurdle rate for investors,7,Source,FactSet and IBES,Source,FactSet and IBES,IBES 2006E P/E,Payout Ratio(%),IBES 2006E P/E,IBES LT Growth Rate(%),Estimated Growth Rates Are Not Necessarily Rewarded,Higher Dividend Payouts Are Still Being Rewarded,来自 中国最大的资料库下载,投资银行在产业中的应用,Section 2,Perspectives on Recent Strategic Activity,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM13,投资银行在产业中的应用,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM14,Perspectives on Recent Strategic Activity,Key Observations,Notes,Includes global announced transactions of$100MM or more;excludes terminated transactions,Annual amounts based on mean of percentage premiums paid over unaffected stock price which is defined as stock price 4 weeks prior to the earliest of the deal announcement;announcement of a competing bid;and market rumors before 31 March 2005,Includes all announced bids irrespective of consideration offered(i.e.,includes all cash,all stock and hybrid bids).Excludes outliers,M&A activity in 2005 continues to be robust,YTD announced global volume up 35%over same period in 2004,8,Source,Thomson Financial as of 9 Sept 2005,Premiums Paid Have Come Down Significantly,M&A Premiums Paid for Global Public Targets(1990YTD)(%),(2)(3),Source,Thomson Financial,Valuation levels provide support to the current M&A environment,Acquisition premiums are down as buyers demonstrate increased discipline,Volume and Average Deal Size up Significantly,(1),Volume($Bn)Avg.Transaction Size($MM),投资银行在产业中的应用,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM15,Perspectives on Recent Strategic Activity,The Market Is More Receptive to M&A,Note,Aftermarket performance compared to acquirors unaffected stock price(1-day prior to announcement),9,Median Aftermarket Performance of the Acquirors Stock Price Following Announcement,(1),Largest 20 Announced Deals in the U.S.per Year(1999YTD)Change(%),Source,Thomson Financial as of 9 Sept 2005,Improved market receptivity to announced transactions,Median Aftermarket Performance of the Acquirors Stock Price Following Announcement,(1),Largest 20 Announced Deals in the U.S.per Year(1999YTD)Change(%),Source,Thomson Financial as of 9 Sept 2005,投资银行在产业中的应用,Perspectives on Recent Strategic Activity,Notes,Based on unaffected prices as of 5/6/2005,12/15/2004,and 5/23/2005,for Duke/Cinergy,Exelon/PSEG,and Scottish Power,respectively,Aggregate Value without securitized debt is$25Bn;EV/2005E EBITDA without securitized debt is 10.4x,Based on equity research estimates,LTM P/E(March 05)is 20.5x,LTM EV/EBITDA(March 05)is 8.6x,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM16,10,(1),(1),(1),(1),(1),(3),(3),Price performance since announcement,(4),(5),(2),(2),Comparison of Recent M&A Transactions,Key Merger Statistics,投资银行在产业中的应用,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM17,Perspectives on Recent Strategic Activity,Emergence of Alternative Sources of Capital,Note,Transactions greater than$400MM.Includes transactions with U.S.based seller or buyer,Financial sponsors and hedge funds have emerged as an increasingly important pool of capital,Proliferation of$1Bn+funds,Convergence of hedge funds and private equity,Growth in number and size of alternative investment funds driven by search for outperformance in low-return environment,Traditional strategies generating lower-return prospects,11,Financial Sponsor Activity as%of Total U.S.M&A Volume,(1),%#of deals,Source,19962004 Thomson Financial,Growth in Global Hedge Funds,19962004,Asset($Bn)Number of Funds,Source,HFR report,投资银行在产业中的应用,Perspectives on Recent Strategic Activity,Financial Player Activity in the Power Sector,New Financial Players Enter the Project Finance Merchant Energy Sector.,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM18,Not all financial players are the same.Those actively involved in the power sector include:,A mix of private equity partnerships and funds,Commercial banks that have reluctantly become owners through foreclosures,Hedge funds that have entered the sector by trading distressed debt and equity,Financial institutions seeking long-term,stable annuity-like returns,such as pension funds or newly formed infrastructure funds,Investment banks looking to expand their commodity positions,12,投资银行在产业中的应用,Perspectives on Recent Strategic Activity,CalBear Energy Marketing and Trading Venture,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM19,On September 8,th,Bear Stearns and Calpine announced the formation of a new energy marketing and trading venture focused on physical natural gas and power trading,13,Overview,CalBear Energy LP(“CalBear”),100%owned by Bear Stearns,Bear Stearns will guarantee approved CalBear transactions,Actively managed risk and trading limits,Calpine Merchant Services Company(“CMSC”),100%owned by Calpine,Calpine,through CMSC will retain CES employees and infrastructure,CMSC will act as agent for CalBear and CES,Calpine will retain all economics from its generation assets,CalBear will provide CES with a$350MM credit intermediation agreement,Reduces cash collateral position,Nets gas purchases and power sales,Limited to transactions less than 61 days out,CalBear third-party energy services profits split 50/50,50%to CMSC as a service fee,Transaction Structure,Business Opportunity,Fragmented industry with thousands of asset owners,Load-serving entities,Non-utility generators,Retail aggregators,Industrials,Natural gas producers,Pipelines,CalBear to provide the expertise to optimize assets,Energy market price volatility creates interest from professional investors and end users,Market inefficiencies and arbitrage opportunities,Calpine,Corporation,Transactions RELATED to Calpine Assets,Distribution,of Profits,Services,Fees,$350MM Credit Intermediation,Agreement for Power&Gas Trades,Around Calpine Assets,Services,Service Fee,Equal to 50%,of CalBear,Profits,100%,Ownership,Calpine Energy Services,L.P.(CES),Bear Stearns Companies Inc.,Transactions NOT RELATED to Calpine Assets,CalBear Energy LP(CalBear),Calpine Merchant Services Company(CMSC),CPN Stock Price,($/share),Source,Factset,Sept.8,th,Announcement,1-Aug 10-Aug 19-Aug 30-Aug 12-Sept,投资银行在产业中的应用,Section 3,Energy Policy Act,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM21,投资银行在产业中的应用,Energy Policy Act,The Energy Policy Act,Overview of PUHCA Repeal,L:UTILITIES_NYDEPT_ONLYPersonal FoldersBLUXTim SchwarzUtility Industry Presentation.pptA2XP16 SEP 20055:55 PM22,14,The repeal of PUHCA in the Energy Act will facilitate M&A activity in the utility industry,The SECs traditional role in reviewing M&A proposals has been removed,as has the requirement for utility combinations to be contiguous or interconnected,However,an increase in M&A activity is not assured,as state approval for M&A will still be required and both FERC and the states have been granted additional authority,How that authority is implemented will be critical to future consolidation in the industry,It is our view that PUHCA repeal will increase strategic activity in the sector over time,however,regulatory hurdles in the utility industry will continue to represent obstacles to mergers and acquisitions,State commissions have,and will continue to represent hurdles,particularly to acquisitions by entities not already