世界能源转型.pdf

Energy Transition FactbookPrepared for the 14th Clean Energy Ministerial1It is my pleasure to share with you the Energy Transition Factbook,which illustrates the critical progress the world is making in transitioning to net-zero emissions and identifies key trends in the development and deployment of clean energy,including wind power,photovoltaics,electric vehicles,and technologies in earlierstages of development,such as hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel.There have been encouraging developments since last years factbook.Global clean energy investment topped$1.1 trillion in 2022.Global electric vehicle sales exceeded 10 million in 2022 for the first time,and more than one in 10 cars sold today are fully electric or hybrid.The US began implementing the Inflation Reduction Act,the single largest financial commitment in its history to address climate change,which has helped to accelerate investment in new clean energy and EV manufacturing.This progress has also been shaped by energy security concerns arising from Russias invasion of Ukraine,since clean energy can allow nations to become more energy self-sufficient,while also driving economic growth and improving public health by reducing air pollution.Much work remains,of course.Wealthy nations must do more to support developing nations in expanding access to clean,affordable energy.In some nations,market barriers remain prevalent,making it more difficult for businesses and consumers to move to cleaner fuels.But momentum is building toward a future powered by clean energy.This factbook,using research from BloombergNEF and other sources,provides public and private sector leaders the critical information they need to accelerate the transition to clean energy,along with all the health and economic benefits it will bring.Michael R.BloombergFounder,Bloomberg L.P.Founder,Bloomberg PhilanthropiesUN Secretary-Generals Special Envoy for Climate Ambition and SolutionsCover letter2Introduction:Energy transition in 20223Power sector:Renewables,integration,storage,grids19Transport:Electrification,heavy-duty transport33Industry:Decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors,hydrogen44Finance:Asset investment,green bonds,ESG533Energy transition investment in CEM members surged to over$1 trillion in 2022Between them,Clean Energy Ministerial members,including the European Union,attracted$1 trillion in investment for energy transition technologies in 2022 a new record.This marked a 34%jump from the previous record of$760 billion,reached in 2021,and included major investment in renewables,power storage and electric vehicles.Collectively,the members again account for 91%of all energy transition investment worldwide.Among individual CEM members,mainland China continues to attract the most investment,followed by the US and Germany.Investment in mainland China spiked 70%year-on-year to$546 billion.Investment also jumped 11%in the US(to reach$141 billion)and 9%in Germany(to$55 billion).CEM members annual energy transition investmentSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Other EU includes European Commission members that do not hold individual CEM membership status.17418319132154680100981271414204635507601,01702004006008001000120020182019202020212022Energy transition investment($billion),historicIndonesiaMexicoUnited Arab EmiratesNew ZealandRussiaChileOtherPortugalDenmarkFinlandPolandOther EUNorwaySwedenAustraliaNetherlandsCanadaBrazilItalySpainIndiaSouth KoreaJapanUKFranceGermanyUSMainland China42442803143684421161181572894484204635507601,01702004006008001000120020182019202020212022Energy transition investment($bn)HydrogenCCSEnergy storageSustainable materialsNuclearElectrified heatElectrified transportRenewable energyInvestment in electrified transport in 2022 jumped more than 54%from the year prior,to$448 billion.Transport and renewables were nearly 90%of 2022 investment.Surging investment in EV supply chains and growing purchases of EVs from consumers allowed the electrified transport segment surge.Investment jumped by$158 billion and global EV sales totaled over 10 million.Renewables was the second largest sector for investment in 2022,attracting$442 billion 20%higher than the year prior.Expanded deployment of solar capacity remained the key driver of growth.Other segments remain comparatively small but are growing swiftly.Electrified heat,nuclear,energy storage,sustainable materials,CCS,and hydrogen investment continued to represent just over a tenth of total investment,with certain segments growing at particularly rapid clips.Hydrogen attracted$370 million,up from an estimated$100 million in 2021.Energy storage investment jumped by nearly half,to$15 billion.CEM members annual energy transition investmentNine in 10 dollars invested went to renewables or electrified transportSource:BloombergNEF,Marklines.Note:CCS refers to carbon capture and storage.Energy transition investment refers to money spent to deploy clean technologies such as clean energy,electric vehicles,heat pumps,hydrogen and carbon capture.Renewable energy refers to wind(on-and offshore),solar(large-and small-scale),biofuels,biomass and waste,marine,geothermal and small hydro.5The renewable energy sector directly and indirectly employed 12.7 million people in 2021(the last year for which there is complete data).The energy transitions worldwide growth has resulted in substantial job creation.The rise in employment has largely been concentrated on the solar photovoltaic(PV),bioenergy and hydropower sub-sectors,which between them represent nearly 80%of all jobs created.Wind power represented another 11%of global renewable employment in 2021.Renewable energy job creation has so far been highly concentrated in relatively few economies.Mainland China accounted for nearly 40%of global renewables employment,followed by the European Union at 10%.Renewable energy now employs 12.7 million people around the worldSource:IRENA Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2022.Notes:Bioenergy includes liquid biofuels,solid biomass and biogas.Hydropower includes direct jobs only.Others includes geothermal energy,concentrated solar power,heat pumps(ground-based),municipal and industrial waste,and ocean energy.Global renewable energy employment by technology3.373.683.753.984.293.053.183.583.533.441.992.051.962.182.371.151.161.171.251.370.810.80.820.820.770.430246810121420172018201920202021Million jobsOthersSolar heating/coolingWind energyHydropowerBioenergySolar photovoltaic6BloombergNEF has modeled multiple scenarios for how the energy transition may unfold over the next three decades.Under the Net Zero Scenario(NZS),global emissions start to fall in 2024 and reach net zero in 2050,consistent with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels.In this scenario,the power sector leads the way,as deployment of renewables,nuclear,carbon capture and storage(CCS)and zero-carbon hydrogen all ramp up by 2030.Emissions from the transport sector follow a more gradual downward path,with emissions from cars,trucks,buses,planes and others peaking in 2024.Emissions from buildings will have already peaked in 2022 under the NZS,but their decline to zero will be slow.These trends highlight the need to invest in technologies today to address the hard-to-abate sectors tomorrow.Greenhouse gas emissions by sector and projected peak year under BloombergNEFs long-term Net Zero ScenarioElectricity and transport sector emissions may be ready to peakSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Labels show year of peak emissions.Other includes agriculture,forestry,fishing,the energy industrys own energyconsumption,and other final energy consumption that is not further specified.MtCO2 stands for million metric tons of carbon dioxide.02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000200020102020203020402050MtCO2PowerIndustryTransportBuildingsOther202220242022201476%29%10%9%45%Jan 2021LegislatedGovernment position but not legislatedIn legislative processUnder discussionNo target17%48%27%9%Jan 2023Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Under discussion stage occurs when governments have begun concrete official discussions to implement a target.Over 90%of CO2 emissions now occur in countries where some form of net-zero target is at least under discussionJanuary 202155%with a net-zero target at least in discussionJanuary 202391%with a net-zero target at least in discussionNational governments commitments to reduce CO2 emissions have increased sharply in the last two years.Around 91%of the worlds population now lives in a country with some form of commitment to achieve net-zero emissions.One sixth of the worlds greenhouse gas emissions now take place in countries with legislated net-zero commitments on the books.Another 48%of emissions occur where national governments have stated but not legislated net-zero targets.Commitments,as measured in greenhouse gas emissions covered,have nearly tripled in two and a half years.In January 2020,34%of global emissions were from nations either contemplating or enforcing net-zero targets.Yet only 2%were accounted for by countries with legally set targets.This latter share rose to 6%by the start of 2021 and is now 17%.8Between them,the members of the Clean Energy Ministerial have made long-term pledges to reach net-zero emissions that cover 76%of global emissions,or 34,909 million metric tons of CO2.Almost one fifth of CEM members have legislated net-zero targets,while 58%have stated a governmental pledge and another 24%have a target under discussion.Emissions from CEM members covered by net-zero targetsCEM members net-zero pledges encompass 76%of global emissionsSource:BloombergNEF and WRI CAIT.Note:Pledges as of year-end 2022.Uses 2019 data as baseline emissions.MtCO2 stands for million metric tons of carbon dioxide.6,15620,3868,36734,90905,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000MtCO2Under discussionGovernment positionLegislated18%58%24%100%9Global average electricity tariffs rose 7%from 2020 to 2021.As the COVID-19 receded,global power production jumped 5.6%in 2021,led by Asia.Power generation spiked to 27,300 terawatt-hours(TWh)from 25,800TWh to set a new high following three years ofstable electricity demand.Undersupply connected to the rise in demand led to a general rise in power tariffs.The average tariff paid in CEM members was nearly double the global average.This largely reflected the sharp spike in power prices in Europe.Overall,tariffs jumped 13%year-on-year in CEM members in 2021.Average electricity prices by regionThe global energy crisis has elevated power pricesSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Considers average residential,commercial,industrial and wholesale electricity rates.CEM members considers rates from all CEM status countries and European Commission members.60801001201401601802002202018201920202021$per megawatt-hourEuropeCEM membersLatin America andCaribbeanAfricaGlobalAmericasAsia-PacificMiddle East10Today,either wind or utility-scale solar is the cheapest source of new bulk electricitygeneration in economies accounting for 82%of power supply and 85%of global GDP.Indonesia and South Korea are the only G-20 economies where renewables are not the cheapest form of generation.Renewable projects in mainland China deliver the lowest costs seen in the world.The market is home to the cheapest fixed-axis solar($39/MWh),onshore wind($34/MWh)and offshore wind($66/MWh),thanks to its strong manufacturing capabilities.Solar and wind are expected to become the cheapest technologies by 2030.We expect solar and wind to become the cheapest power technologies in the vast majority of G-20 economies no later than 2030 thanks to falling capex and improving efficiency of solar and wind.Cheapest source of new bulk generation($/megawatt-hour,levelized)by market,1H 2023Renewables are the cheapest power source where two-thirds of the world livesSource:BloombergNEF.Note:The map shows the technology with the lowest levelized cost of electricity(or auction bid for recent delivery)for new-build plants in each market where BNEF has data.LCOEs exclude subsidies,tax credits and grid connection costs,and include a carbon price where applicable.*We do not estimate LCOEs for Russia or Saudi Arabia.We assume that CCGTs are the cheapest new technology to build in Russia given low fuel costs and relative inexperience building renewables.Onshore windOffshore windFixed axis PVTracking PVGas CCGTCoal11Global coal-fired power generation surged 750 terawatt-hours in 2021 from the year prior as the global economy began to recover from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.The rebound came after two years of decline,in part due to weaker overall electricity demand.In mainland China,the net change in coal-fired generation was up 395 terrawatt-hours(TWh).But it was hardly alone,as demand for coal-fired power also increased in India(up 153TWh)and the US(up 21.4TWh).Wind and solar posted their biggest ever single-year growth in contribution to new generation.Output from the two technologies jumped 404TWh year-on-year.Wind contributed an additional 261TWh to reach 1,864TWh,or 6.5%of all generation globally.Solars contribution rose by 143TWh,crossing the 1,000TWh threshold for the first time to reach 3.7%of global generation.Global year-on-year generation change by technologyCoal-fired power generation has bounced back as Covid-19 has recededSource:BloombergNEF Power Transition Trends report585409109-237271316-256-27375029711613910410189226-11996326198205201158-12491105118137177270170261566178118137126148143-500-300-1001003005007009001,1001,3001,5002012201320142015201620172018201920202021TWhSolarWindOther non-fossilOther-fossilOil and dieselNuclearNatural gasMarineHydroGeothermalCoalBiomass and waste12Global fossil fuel power generation vs.global emissionsRecord demand and fossil-fuel burn propelled power-sector CO2 emissions to an all-time highSource:BloombergNEF Power Transition Trends reportAs the global economy recovered from the pandemic in 2021,CO2 emissions from the power sector jumped 7%from the year prior to reach a new all-time high of 13,601 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent(MtCO2e).The total far surpassed the previous pre-pandemic high of 13,305MtCO2e,set in 2018,and came after declines in 2019 and 2020.The jump was due to record volumes of generation from coal and natural gas in 2021.Coal-fired electricity generation totaled 9,622 terawatt-hours(TWh),far exceeding the previous high of 9,401TWh set in 2018.Natural gas combustion also reached a record of 6,2423TWh in 2021,surpassing the previous peak of 6,131TWh set in 2019.Even oil combustion for electricity generation increased to 646TWh in 2021,although it remains far below the recent peak of 924TWh in 2012.11,50012,00012,50013,00013,50014,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020122014201620182020MtCO2eTWh Oil and diesel Natural gas Coal Total emissions13As energy concerns continue to grow,particularly in western Europe,interest in finding ways to generate heat using electricity has surged.BNEF tracked