美国充电设施部署.pdf

Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure An Assessment of Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicle Energy Needs and Deployment Scenarios Michael Joseph Bill Van Amburg Mark Hill Bharadwaj Sathiamoorthy August 2023Working Paper CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure ii Table of Contents Acknowledgments.i Table of Contents.ii List of Acronyms.iii Figures and Tables.iv Executive Summary.1 I.Infrastructure Buildout to 2035.2 Introduction.2 Energy Needs of the U.S.ZE-MHDV Transition.4 Where Infrastructure Deployment Will Need to Meet Demand.9 Deployment Phasing.11 Takeaways.15 II.When Buildout Will Happen:Prioritizing Areas.18 Overcoming Barriers to Availability.18 Examples in the Real World.19 Examples in Analysis.23 Takeaways.25 III.How Buildout Will Be Efficient:Site Configurations.26 Overcoming Barriers to Utilization.26 Examples in the Real World.27 Examples in Analysis.30 Takeaways.31 IV.Conclusions.32 Discussion:Network Effects and Further Research.32 Recommendations.36 References.37 Appendix.41 Data Sources.41 Approach.44 Assumptions.47 CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure iii List of Acronyms Acronym Definition ACF Advanced Clean Fleets rule ACT Advanced Clean Trucks rule bhp-hr/mile Brake horsepower-hour per mile CaaS Charging-as-a-Service CARB California Air Resources Board CEC California Energy Commission CPUC California Public Utilities Commission EPA U.S.Environmental Protection Agency EVSE Electric vehicle supply equipment FHWA Federal Highway Administration Global MOU Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Vehicles HPMS U.S.Highway Performance Management System ICCT International Council on Clean Transportation kW Kilowatts MHDV Medium-and heavy-duty vehicle MWh Megawatt-hours NEVI National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program NHFN National Highway Freight Network NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory PNNL Pacific Northwest National Laboratory SCAQMD South Coast Air Quality Management District VMT Vehicle miles traveled ZE-MHDV Zero-emission medium-and heavy-duty vehicle CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure iv Figures and Tables Figures Figure 1.Drive to Zero Six-Stage Strategy(CALSTART,2022b).3 Figure 2.Average Annual Increase in Daily Energy Consumption from New ZE-MHDV Sales,2023-2035.6 Figure 3.Energy System Optimization Areas.7 Figure 4.Illustration of Site Configurations and Functions in Priority Launch Areas.11 Figure 5.CALSTART Phased Deployment,Present to 2027 Phase 1.12 Figure 6.CALSTART Phased Deployment,2027 to 2030 Phase 2.13 Figure 7.CALSTART Phased Deployment,2030 to 2035 Phase 3.14 Figure 8.Rapid,Extensive Market Penetration Supported by Phased Buildout of Infrastructure.16 Figure 9.Phase-in Priority Areas and Context.24 Figure 10.Infrastructure Phase-In Progression.33 Tables Table 1.Priority Launch Area Definitions.10 Table 2.Phase 1 Breakdown.12 Table 3.Phase 2 Breakdown.13 Table 4.Phase 3 Breakdown.14 Table 5.Priority Factors.19 Table 6.Costs($billions).35 Table A-1.Travel Data Sources.41 Table A-2.Prioritization Data.42 Table A-3.Cost Data.43 Table A-4.Priority Data.46 Table A-5.Phase Definition.47 CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure v Table A-6.Deployment Distributions.48 Table A-7.Costs of Phased Scenario by Phase and Area($billions).49 Table A-8.EVSE Base Costs.50 CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure 1 Executive Summary To assess the feasibility of zero-emission infrastructure buildout at a nationwide scale,CALSTART projected the infrastructure required to supply the electricity needed for zero-emission medium-and heavy-duty vehicle(ZE-MHDV)adoption rates in 2027,2030,and 2035.These rates meet the targets set by the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Vehicles(Global MOU),signed by the United States in 2022.This analysis shows that the infrastructure necessary to meet energy needs of ZE-MHDVs can be phased in around favorable launch areas.This phased approach can manage distribution grid upgrade timelines and maximize utilization even with the Global MOUs attainable market penetration rates,which exceed those proposed by U.S.regulators.The accelerating pace of ZE-MHDV energy needs can be managed through market-driven,overlapping,and concurrent growth of an integrated transportation-energy system.To develop this analysis and resulting roadmap,CALSTART modeled energy needs and showed how prioritizing favorable launch areas and using innovative deployment strategies can accommodate capacity constraints during buildout.Favorable regions include where 1)industry concentrates,2)public and private funds have high leverage,3)policy is supportive,4)energy will cost less,or 5)distributed grid modernization will occur.Buildout in this scenario concentrates first around return-to-base depot infrastructure in key industry clusters that form recharging hubs,then in key corridors enabling regional hub-to-hub operations,and finally in national network nodes.In sum,this phase-in strategy enables:Faster deployment by focusing on priority launch areas.More ZE-MHDVs can be supported in less time than in linear,unphased growth scenarios.Cost-effective implementation.Costs can be shifted forward and less important areas left to future deployment,while total energy demand can be supplied through targeted upgrades and management strategies,sharing arrangements,public charging,and other onsite optimizationsreducing per-vehicle infrastructure costs.A clear vision that helps utilities,government,and investors target actions to integrate grid modernization and ZE-MHDV adoption,as well as maximize co-benefits.Coordination that leverages public funds and unleashes private investment.CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure 2 I.Infrastructure Buildout to 2035 Introduction The development of widely available recharging infrastructure for zero-emission medium-and heavy-duty vehicles(ZE-MHDVs)is critical to support the transition to these vehicles expected in the United States over the next decades.ZE-MHDVs are ready to expand into all regional applications and longer-range routes.Deploying energy delivery systemsa package of technology products and supportive system developments making up a recharging infrastructure that supports the introduction of ZE-MHDVsis crucial.Infrastructure deployments must keep pace with the rapid growth of ZE-MHDVs or risk slowing the acceleration of the market.Over the last few years,industry has made major commitments to build out this infrastructure.Moreover,a growing ecosystem of infrastructure suppliers and solutions are in place to support these investments and manage this transition.Nevertheless,a particular fleets choice to transition to ZE-MHDVs can be influenced by uncertainty over the availability of recharging infrastructure.Exposure to potential unforeseen costs involved in infrastructure deployment could affect and divert a fleets pathway toward transitioning to ZE-MHDVs,despite potential advantages regarding total cost of ownership.This concern is particularly acute with respect to electric recharging infrastructure;the delivery of electrons is different from the liquid or gaseous refueling systems fleets may be used to and involves questions regarding the pace of transportation electrification and integration into the larger electric grid.1 To assess the feasibility of infrastructure buildout at a national scale,CALSTART projected the infrastructure necessary to deliver the electricity needed to meet the ZE-MHDV adoption rates in 2027,2030,and 2035 set by the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Vehicles(Global MOU);these rates represent a feasible pathway to 100 percent ZE-MHDVs by 2040(CALSTART,2022b).CALSTART 1 This analysis focuses on electric infrastructure and leaves the deployment of other zero-emission refueling infrastructure for future studies;recent work has,however,considered the role of other refueling technologies within some of the duty cycles involved in these projections(CALSTART,2023a).CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure 3 developed a scenario in which these needs emerge based on current vehicle activity patterns and ZE-MHDV adoption trends.In keeping with CALSTARTs overall strategy toward market acceleration and transformation,it was assumed that most of this investment will be through private entities,utilizing innovative strategies many CALSTART members have shared in public discussion on the topic(CALSTART,2022a;CALSTART,2022c).This projection shows how the accelerating pace of ZE-MHDV energy needs can be managed through market-driven,overlapping,and concurrent growth of a supportive ZE-MHDV ecosystem in a phased transition.Deployment concentrates first around return-to-base depot infrastructure and in regional recharging hubs within key geographies supporting the full range of regional operations,then in key corridors enabling regional hub-to-hub operations,and finally in built-out networks connecting corridors to each other and to other critical infrastructure along the larger surface transportation network.This assessment was structured to build on and further detail the Drive to Zero implementation roadmap(CALSTART,2022b).The 2040 ZE-MHDV roadmaps core strategy(Figure 1)breaks up the activity needed to reach full sales penetration into six overlapping stages,with smart infrastructure phasing as a critical,enabling component of five of the stages.Figure 1.Drive to Zero Six-Stage Strategy(CALSTART,2022b)CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure 4 With the who and what of the ZE-MHDV transitionwho is investing in it and the pathway they are on to 100 percent ZE-MHDVsalready known,this study analyzes where ZE-MHDVs are likely to appear,why they appear in those locations,when they will need infrastructure,and how this phased buildout process will accommodate them.This first section presents this projection,detailing the scale and pace of the transition in terms of energy delivery needs and the phases to meet those needs.Energy Needs of the U.S.ZE-MHDV Transition ZE-MHDV Adoption Rates To determine where ZE-MHDVs will appear,this analysis used projected commercial vehicle ZE-MHDV market sales from the Drive to Zero zero-emission vehicle market assessment(CALSTART,2021a).The sales estimations are based on a multifactor forecast,which includes technology readiness and viability for key MHDV duty cycles,total cost of ownership,and production scalability inputs for the primary commercial vehicle categories.The adoption rates represent the 2040 goal of the Global MOU.Global MOU signatories have pledged to reach 100 percent new ZE-MHDV sales by 2040 and 30 percent new ZE-MHDV sales by 2030;the United States became a signatory in 2022.The Global MOU,co-led by the Government of The Netherlands and Drive to Zero,also aligns with the Paris Agreement to reach net-zero by the middle of the 21st century and to drastically cut emissions to keep the rise in mean global temperature below 2.0 degrees Celsius and limited as far as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius.This standard is aligned with the targets announced by most major global original equipment manufacturers who have set 2040 as the date by when all new vehicle sales will be zero-emission or fossil-free(CALSTART,2021a).The Global MOU adoption rates assume this transition will occur through a phased“beachhead”strategy with respect to market acceleration and technology adoption.In the beachhead strategy,first-mover technology applications like transit buses,cargo vans,and school buses dominate markets.From there,supportive services and a supply chain develops behind these early applications(CALSTART,2022c).The ZE-MHDV sales rates assumed in this analysis constitute a share of the total commercial vehicle population,which is significantly higher than those proposed by certain regulatory targets.This includes the U.S.Environmental Protection Agencys(EPAs)recently proposed Phase 3 ruling targets for MHDVs,as well as the Advanced Clean Trucks(ACT)rule of the California Air Resources Board(CARB)already adopted by several statesand the Advanced Clean Fleets(ACF)rule.These rates also align with other forward-looking rates CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure 5 of adoption used in infrastructure assessments such as those from the International Council on Clean Transportation(ICCT)(ICCT,2023).Where and How Energy Needs Will Arise Using these rates,energy needs and where they will appear were projected by considering how new ZE-MHDV sales,and the infrastructure to support them,would be distributed across the United States.The purpose of this projection was to show that these needs arise from the travel patterns on the existing transportation network used by commercial vehicles.In other words,while individual fleet transitions will collectively add up to a total energy need,they will do this within a travel market with spatially differentiated and regional variations.To demonstrate this,new sales were distributed in relation to vehicle miles traveled(VMT)by commercial vehicles(Classes 38)on relevant segments of the ZE-MHDV road network,which was defined as the National Highway Freight Network(NHFN)within the lower 48 U.S.states.2 Using Federal Highway Administration(FHWA)Highway Performance Management System data,commercial vehicle activity was calculated on individual road segments and then aggregated into uniform 10-square-mile travel areas(i.e.,an analytic grid)across the network.VMT for travel on individual road segments was then calculated within these areas,which was used as a basis for determining new ZE-MHDV introductions by way of a scaling factor.The energy used by travel through an area vis-vis all travel on NHFN was related to the energy of potentially introduced ZE-MHDVs in that area to the total ZE-MHDVs forecasted by the Global MOU scenario,given their energy usage,typical range,and other factors.The assumption behind this approach,one of several possible currently being explored,was that the energy used to travel through each area on NHFN will be supplied in similar proportions by a share of newly introduced ZE-MHDVs in the future.3 More detailed information on the methodology is available in the Appendix.2 NHFN was used given inter-regional and inter-state commercial vehicle travel utilizes much of the freight network.Other states and territories were excluded at this time to focus on the deployment scenarios involving the majority of this network.3 This analysis assumes vehicle range and travel patterns are constant through the duration of the projection.There are indicators that these may shift and become more efficient with vocational specialization among ZE-MHDVs.CALSTART|Phasing in U.S.Charging Infrastructure 6 The introduction of ZE-MHDVs across the road network then presents a consequential change in energy delivery needed to support these vehicles,both in space and over time(Figure 2).Figure 2.