运输和物流行业并购情况：2023年年中分析.pdf

2023 mid-year analysisM&A deals,joint ventures and strategic alliances in the transport and logistics industryTransport&Logistics BarometerAgenda5 Appendix:Deals in figures,methodology,contacts4 Outlook3 Subsectors2 Introduction1 Summary|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics Barometer3Summary1|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics Barometer4Summarymergers and acquisitions(M&A)worth at least$50 million were announced in the transport and logistics(T&L)industry in the first half of 2023-the lowest level of deal activity in the last ten years.The significant slump was felt across all industries and regions,triggered by the fragile economic and geopolitical environment.The total deal value in T&L bottomed at$34.3 billion(average of the last ten half-years:$75.1 billion),while the average deal value of$404 million was last lower in the first half of 2020 when COVID-19 spread worldwide.85 for the T&L industry is highly uncertain as many downside risks persist.However,we expect a momentary slowdown rather than long-term recessionary developments.M&A activity is likely to remain subdued throughout 2023 but we anticipate a number of small-to medium-sized deals,take-privates and capability-building mergers and acquisitions.Large players will continue to be busy with the integration of past acquisitions and active cost management to cope with deteriorating profit margins.The outlookIncluding three megadeals,this was again the most active segment when it came to M&A deals and strategic partnerships.Many deals were made by organisations from outside of the T&L industry,primarily financial investors but also strategic investors from a variety of industries.In the parcel segment,some major industry players established joint ventures or strategic alliances to enhance delivery performance and customer service.Alliances are also a means of choice when it comes to enhancing supply chain visibility through AI-powered solutions.40 deals in Logistics and Truckingwas responsible for the largest acquisition of the year so far,which is representative of the expansion strategy of shipping lines in recent years to become fully integrated logistics providers.CMA CGM completed the acquisition of Bollor Logistics for$5.1 billion.Although there is still a lot of capital available,we believe that such large acquisitions are becoming less likely in the coming months due to the lack of suitable targets.In total,the Shipping subsector accounted for 22%of all announced deals,seven of which related to port infrastructure.The Shipping subsectorof the total deal value is attributable to financial investors,a strong setback compared to 2022(64%),and 52%of the total number of deals.Difficult financing conditions based on central banks tight monetary policy to allay inflation have led to reluctance with a focus on smaller acquisitions.Although the elevated median sales multiple of 3.1 reflects that investors are still willing to pay an increased price for selected,high-quality targets,it is to a lesser extent than in the past years.This is also indicated by the low number of 5 megadeals,deals with a value$1 billion.Strategic investors have also engaged in fewer deals,but they are currently less dependent on debt capital as many T&L companies benefited from the crisis years with high profits.38%|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics Barometer5Introduction2|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics Barometer6|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics Barometer7Signs of fragile recoveryThe year 2022 was marked by trade disruptions and soaring commodity and energy prices.In combination with persistent inflationary pressures and central banks tight monetary policies,this ultimately triggered reorientation and adjustment in many economies(e.g.gas flows).The reason for the loss in global growth momentum was the outbreak of the Russian war against Ukraine and increasing geopolitical fragmentation accompanied by ongoing COVID-19 policies,particularly in Asia.Although these factors are still reverberating,it seems that the global economy has started to improve in the first half of 2023,albeit with high fragility.Global headline inflation has been decreasing for multiple months now due to lower fuel and energy prices as supply constraints ease and demand weakens,particularly in the United States,Europe and Latin America,and Chinas full abandonment of its COVID-19 measures,which has stimulated economic activity.Core inflation,in contrast,is proving persistent,and both global headline and core inflation rates remain elevated at twice their pre-2021 levels,significantly above targets.According to the World Trade Organization,global trade remained subdued in the first quarter of 2023 but with first signs pointing to a potential upswing in the coming months.The WTO Goods Barometer latest reading increased to 95.6 from 92.2 in March(baseline=100).The Barometers component indices,however,draw a diverse picture and imply an uneven recovery:While both the export orders index(102.7)and the automotive products index(110.8)have risen above trend,the indices for container shipping(89.4),air freight(93.5),electronic components trade(85.2)and raw materials trade(99.0)remained below trend.Sources:International Monetary Fund(IMF),OECD,World Trade Organization(May 2023)Investment climate disturbedInterest rates remained high in most markets as central banks are continuing to tame unusually high inflation with tight financial conditions.This has led to some financial institutions whose businesses rely on a continuation of a low interest rate environment faltering.The turmoil in the banking sector in the spring of 2023 has evoked tensions in the global financial system and caused concerns about financial stability.The resulting uncertainty amid a fragile economy has created an unfavourable environment for deal-making as investors become more sensitive in the deals they conduct.Deal financing has become more expensive,causing financial investors to focus on smaller value deals in the middle market,which require fewer loans and lenders than megadeals.In addition,targets and assets with less debt on their balance sheets and lower-risk target sectors like agriculture or infrastructure are gaining in attractiveness,but financial investors compete with strategic acquirers in this space.The T&L industry has witnessed a solid base of financial investors in recent years,encouraged by an unprecedented level of asset-light opportunities and a low-interest environment.In the first half of 2023,financial investors engaged in about half of all deal announcements but they only accounted for 38%of the total deal value(2022:64%).This represents a significant drop but confirms the general picture that megadeals are rather being avoided.This is also confirmed by the fact that the share of deal announcements with a value of less than$50 million in the total number of all announced deals has increased slightly compared to the previous two half-years.Looking at subsectors,it is not surprising that financial investors sought most targets in Logistics and Trucking,while a bunch of deal announcements concerned infrastructure targets.The rest is distributed with small shares among the other subsectors.Strategic investors-unlike financial investors-are less dependent on external financing but can draw on their own capital for acquisitions.Many T&L players,e.g.shipping companies,have benefited greatly from record freight rates in the past crisis years and generated tremendous profits.They are now seeking opportunities to expand networks and extend their reach,e.g.through vertical or horizontal integration,and are taking advantage of financial investors reluctance in the current lending environment.They remain cautious about large deal values but the uncertain environment offers T&L players good chances to make selected acquisitions.In the first half of 2023,strategic investors accounted for a share of 48%(2022:52%)in the total number of deals and of 62%(2022:36%)in the total deal value with a focus on targets in Logistics and Trucking,followed by Shipping.A total of 27%of the deals announced by strategic investors were infrastructure-related.This shows that they also have targets on their radar that are considered to have a lower risk profile.Overall,the increase of the median sales multiple from 1.7 in 2022 to 3.1 shows that investors are still willing to pay higher prices for selected,low-risk targets in the T&L industry.This is particularly true for financial investors,who paid almost thrice as high prices as strategic investors with a median sales multiple of 7.2 and 2.5,respectively.Sources:IMF,Pitchbook,Refinitiv,PwC analysis|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics Barometer8201720182019202020212022TotalTotalTotal1H202H20Total1H212H21Total1H222H22Total1H23Number of deals28022325710315025314817532314411726185Total deal value($bn)131.7113.8141.937.162.899.894.5119.7214.1131.350.0181.334.3Average dealvalue($m)470.4510.8552.0359.7418.4394.5638.3683.8662.9911.7427.5694.7404.0|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics BarometerMore than half of them are related to shipping and port infrastructure.For example,Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding planned to acquire a 35%stake in Shandong Shipping,one of Chinas largest shipowners,a subsidiary of state-run ship building group CSSC,for$665 million.COSCO Shipping Ports announced the acquisition of the remaining 30%stake,which it did not already own,in Xiamen Ocean Gate Container Terminal to strengthen container-related business.The highest deal value and second highest number of deals were observed in Europe,driven by local deals.One deal that stands out is the pending acquisition of Austrian Cargo-Partner by publicly listed Japanese third-party logistics provider Nippon Express for$1.5 billion.The deal is handled by Nippon Expresss German subsidiary and will diversify geographic coverage.North America was in third place in terms of the number of deals,the total deal value was second highest.A 22%share of all deal announcements targeted infrastructure like toll roads,ports and airports,and primarily took place within Asia but also in small parts in North and South America and Europe.M&A activity bottomedHigh uncertainty and increased cost of capital,coupled with the depressed economic situation,have resulted in the lowest level of M&A activity in the T&L industry and across all sectors in the past ten years.A total of 85 deals worth at least$50 million were announced in the first half of 2023(H1 2022:144,H2 2022:117).The total deal value of$34.3 billion(H1 2022:$131.3 billion;H2 2022:$50 billion)fell to its lowest level in a decade.The average deal value of$404 million(H1 2022:$911.7 million;H2 2022:$427.5 million)was last lower in H1 2020,when the COVID-19 pandemic spread worldwide.Only five megadeals,deals with a value$1 billion,were announced by both financial and strategic investors with targets in Europe,India and the United States.The regional distribution of all announcements reveals that M&A activity in Asia Pacific was highest by number of deals,and primarily comprised local and inbound transactions.However,the gap to other regions is not large and was much more pronounced in previous years.More than two thirds of the deal announcements in Asia Pacific have Chinese participation,both on the buy and sell side.It is noticeable that these are exclusively local transactions within mainland China.9Sources:PwC analysis,based on Refinitiv0%1%2%3%4%5%6%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Total Deals$50mDeals with T&L targetsDeals with T&L targets as%of total deals-10-50510020406080100Number of dealsGlobal GDP(real),USD,%change on the previous year|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics BarometerT&L deal activity mirroring GDPM&A activity in Q1 2023 mirrored,with some delay,the slump in GDP from 3.0%in Q3 2022 to 1.8%in the last quarter of 2022.M&A announcements dropped from 56 to 42 in Q1 2023 and have since remained at the low level with 43 M&A deal announcements in Q2 2023.This is in line with GDP growth that has only recovered slightly(Q1:2.2%,Q2:2.4%).Overall,this marks the slowest start into a year since the financial crisis in 2009.Strategic alliance announcements of listed companies in the first quarter of 2023 were on the contrary above the level of the previous two quarters.However,the second quarter did not continue this upward movement:with only 12 announced alliances,this quarter reached only about 45%below the average quarterly alliance announcements in the previous year.Codeshare agreements among airlines reached a new record low again,with only one such agreement being announced in each of the first two quarters of the current year(2022:10).Comparing the deal activity in T&L(-27%vs H2 2022)with other industries,we see that the slump has been felt to a similar extent across all industries(-24%).Deal announcements in the second quarter of 2023 indicate that the sharp downward trend may have been stopped with M&A activity stabilising at a lower level.The overall share of deals with targets in the T&L industry remains stable at 3.7%,the same level as in the previous two quarters and only slightly below the 10-year average of 3.9%.10Period-on-period change in global number of deals with a deal value of$50 million or more(including the share of T&L targets)T&L M&A deals(no.of deals and change in real global GDP)Source:PwC analysis,based on Refinitiv and IHSSubsectors3|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics Barometer11|18 July 2023Transport&Logistics Barometer12T&L industry on the path to recoveryThe disrupted demand for consumer goods caused poor container throughput at the beginning of the year,dissipating ship congestion to pre-pandemic levels.This is also supported by the fact that some companies changed transport mode during the crisis for cost reasons and may now maintain alternative routes via road or rail.In March,cargo volumes in the Red Sea returned to expectations for the first time after one year,more precisely exports from Asia to Europe.After April and May showed a slight relief in container shipping,the first data for June point to a continuation of the negative trend in the Red Sea,according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.The Drewry World Container Index(WCI)reveals that the rate per 40-foot container has developed downwards to more stabilised prices since its spike in autumn 2021(-86%),but it still surpasses the pre-pandemic average by 5%.Despite increased operating costs,these rates and associated margins are still sufficient for most shipping companies.The special effects of the last few years meant that certain projects and investments could be accelerated significantly.Although shipping companies are now experiencing the general increase in costs,they are able to pass some of these on to customers(e.g.bunkers).The weakening demand for air cargo continued in the first quarter of 2023 with seasonally adjusted cargo tonne kilometres(CTK)-7.5%below the same period in 2019.This means a further stabilisation