1、收稿日期:20220926作者简介:杨欣磊(1990),男,主要从事水文水资源与系统设计工作。DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2023.07.010漳河流域洪水预报方案修编分析杨欣磊1,杨鹏2(1.天津市龙网科技发展有限公司,天津300170;2.海河水利委员会水文局,天津300170)摘要:针对海河流域漳卫河水系水文气象特点和漳河石梁、匡门口、观台3个水文断面以上区域的当前下垫面情况和洪水特性,利用1995年以后洪水资料,参照 水文情报预报规范(GBT 22482-2008)要求,采用P+Pa-R、单位线产汇流模型和马斯京根河道流量分段演算模型对漳河石梁、匡门口、观
2、台3个水文站点进行预报方案修编和模型参数率定。修编后的预报方案精度达到乙级标准,方案整体预报精度能够满足实时作业预报的需要。关键词:预报方案;模型参数率定;洪水预报精度中图分类号:TV122;TV124文献标识码:A文章编号:1004-7328(2023)07-0036-09Revision of Flood Forecasting Scheme for Zhanghe River BasinYANG Xin-lei1,YANG peng2(1.Tianjin Lonwin Technology Development Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300170,China;2.Hydro
3、logy Bureau of Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission,Tianjin 300170,China)Abstract:Based on the hydrological and meteorological characteristics of Zhanghe River and Weihe River system in theHaihe River Basin,as well as the current land surface conditions and flood characteristics in the upper rea
4、ches of Shiliang,Kuangmenkou,and Guantai hydrological sections,this paper utilizes flood data from 1995 onwards to revise the floodforecasting scheme and calibrate model parameters for these three hydrological stations.Following the requirementsoutlined in the Specification for Hydrological Informat
5、ion and Forecasting(GBT22482-2008),the P+PaR method,unithydrograph routing model,and Muskingum channel flow routing model are employed.The revised forecasting scheme hasachieved an accuracy level that meets Class B standards,while the overall forecast accuracy of the scheme is able to fulfillthe req
6、uirements of real-time operational forecasting.Key words:forecasting scheme;model parameter calibration;flood forecasting accuracy1概述漳卫南运河为海河水系五大河系之,地处太岳山以东、黄河与徒骇马颊河以北、滏阳河以南,上游分漳河、卫河两大支流。漳河发源于山西省境内太行山背风山区,东与滏阳河为邻,北接滹沱河及潇河,西界沁河,南靠丹河及卫河,地跨晋、冀、豫三省,干流长179 km,流域面积19 220 km2,上游分清漳河与浊漳河两大支流。匡门口水文站是清漳河控制站,控
7、制面积5 060 km2,其上游支流清漳西源建有1座石匣中型水库,控制面积754 km2。石梁水文站是浊漳河控制站,控制面积9 652 km2,其南源、西源和北源分别建有漳泽、后湾、关河3座大型水库,控制面积分别为3 146、1 296、1 747 km2,总库容6.78亿m3。清漳河与浊漳河在合漳处汇合后为漳河,观台水文站是漳河控制站,控制面积17 800 km2,其下游出山口建有大型水库岳城水库。由于太行山主脉横贯漳河中部,将漳河流域分成东、西2个产、汇流特点不同的区域。其中,清漳河地处太行山迎风坡,多集中暴雨且坡陡流急,洪水往往峰高量大,是漳河洪水主要来源之地;浊漳河地处太行山背风坡,暴
8、雨频次、量级均少于清漳河。根据降雨、洪水资料分析,漳河观台站以上洪水组成主要可以分成如下3种情况:以清漳河匡门口以上 防汛抗旱 海河水利2023.No.72023.No.7及石梁、匡门口、观台区间来水为主;以石梁、匡门口、观台区间的暴雨为主;以浊漳河漳泽、后湾、关河三水库石梁区间来水为主。观台以上流域水系,如图1所示。本河系多年平均降水量500700 mm。降水量分布受地形影响,山区般在 600700 mm,平原为 500600 mm。降水年内分布极不均匀,全年70%80%降水集中在汛期69月。图1观台以上流域水系2洪水预报方案修编由于原有的海河流域漳河水系3个主要控制断面石梁、匡门口、观台的
9、洪水预报方案是基于1995年以前洪水资料编制的,精度低于乙级,不能满足实时作业预报的需要。本文针对海河流域漳卫河水系水文气象特点和当前漳河石梁、匡门口、观台3个水文断面以上区域的下垫面情况和洪水特性1,利用1995 年以后洪水资料,参照 水文情报预报规范(GBT 22482-2008)要求2,采用产流曲线、单位线产汇流模型和马斯京根河道流量分段演算模型3,对漳河石梁、匡门口、观台3个水文站点进行了预报方案修编和模型参数率定工作。2.1石梁水文站2.1.1断面基本情况关河水库、漳泽水库、后湾水库到石梁水文站区间流域现有4个水文站,即漳泽水库、后湾水库、关河水库、石梁水文站。区间流域内选用雨量站共
10、计9个,即漳泽、石梁、河南、后湾、故县、榆社、蟠龙、关河、史北雨量站。2.1.2预报方案构建预报方案设置4个方案输入:石梁漳泽、后湾、关河水库区间(控制面积3 463 km2),区间产汇流模型分别采用产流曲线(P_RWLL)和单位线(UH_B);雨量站控制权重采用泰森多边形法;漳泽水库出库,采用马斯京根河道流量分段连续演算(MSK)到石梁;后湾水库出库,采用马斯京根河道流量分段连续演算到石梁;关河水库出库,采用马斯京根河道分段连续演算到石梁。方案计算步长为1 h,结构如图2所示。2.1.3模型参数成果(1)产流参数。土壤最大初损量Im=170;12个月的土壤含水量日衰减系数分别为 0.90、0
11、.90、0.90、0.90、0.90、0.85、0.85、0.85、0.90、0.90、0.90、0.90;P+Pa-R相关性,详见表1。(2)汇流参数。石梁水文站区间流域单位线,详见表2。(3)马斯京根河道流量分段连续演算模型参数,详见表3。(4)场次洪水合格率统计,详见表4。图2石梁站预报结构杨欣磊,杨鹏:漳河流域洪水预报方案修编分析372023年7月项目P+PaR序号1002102.23202.64403.256046805.271006.581209914012101601811180261220035132204814240641526082163201421738021218440
12、27719500300表1石梁水文站区间流域P+Pa-R相关性mm表2石梁水文站区间流域单位线序号单位线序号单位线序号单位线序号单位线101828.9351245239.9201937.6361185337.2302050371125434.14021200381085532.15022580391025629.860233504098.15726.970243104190.45823.980252804283.95921.290262504379.66018.2100272204473.66114.9110282004567.96211.9120291704663.2639.91303016
13、24757.9648.2140311544852.3655.9150321464947664.7160331385041.7674.31711.6341305139.9683表3马斯京根模型参数河道漳泽石梁后湾石梁关河石梁X0.350.350.4KK111MP12126洪号1996080417199807091819980724081999080916200007171320010727202001080203200207260520030801142003090108200407161720040813082006091602200707311520070827192010080912201
14、008212220110704072011082005201208010820130710132016072220201608252320170625072017073007合格率洪峰/(m3s-1)预报值31816636763350810148325176702518698101206339634796147223563711816/25=64%实测值38886.230.778.667.247913056.73191798120987.913514436841175.348.693205182678199相对误差/%-1892.617.3-3.3-50.96.1-22.3-15.31.9-1
15、.7-13.620-2.2-27.4-29.9-44-17.5-16.3-3.33.2-28.322.5-16.4-54.319.2合格与否洪量/亿m3预报值0.565 40.137 60.076 00.046 10.036 60.187 00.219 90.025 20.119 90.438 20.119 60.203 70.138 40.190 20.161 00.068 20.231 00.116 10.063 70.255 60.253 90.504 30.140 30.111 10.296 819/25=76%实测值0.651 60.153 00.090 00.036 20.044
16、40.246 90.255 60.027 50.254 10.437 80.100 40.230 90.129 20.174 80.137 40.072 50.196 30.129 00.077 70.182 00.240 00.351 70.139 40.094 30.232 6相对误差/%-13.2-10.1-15.527.3-17.6-24.3-14-8.4-52.8019.1-11.87.18.817.2-5.917.7-10-1840.45.843.40.617.827.6合格与否表4石梁水文站率定期场次洪水洪峰洪量统计海河水利382023.No.7(5)方案评定。根据 水文情报预报
17、规范(GBT 22482-2008)合格率准则4,本次石梁预报方案参数检验采用19952017年具有代表性的大、中、小洪水资料共25场次洪水资料(其中,最大的2场洪水发生在1996年8月、2001年7月,洪峰分别为388、479 m3/s,洪量分别为0.651 6亿、0.246 9亿m3),率定的洪量合格率为76%、洪峰合格率为64%、峰现时间合格率为76%。率定结果,详见表45。表5石梁水文站率定期场次洪水峰现时间统计h洪号1996080417199807091819980724081999080916200007171320010727202001080203200207260520030
18、801142003090108200407161720040813082006091602200707311520070827192010080912201008212220110704072011082005201208010820130710132016072220201608252320170625072017073007合格率起始时间1996-08-02 8:001998-07-08 8:001998-07-22 8:001999-08-08 8:002000-07-15 8:002001-07-26 8:002001-08-01 8:002002-07-25 8:002003-07-
19、30 8:002003-08-31 8:002004-07-15 8:002004-08-12 8:002006-09-15 8:002007-07-30 8:002007-08-26 8:002010-08-08 8:002010-08-20 8:002011-07-02 8:002011-08-18 8:002012-07-30 8:002013-07-09 8:002016-07-19 8:002016-08-24 8:002017-06-23 8:002017-07-28 8:0019/25=76%结束时间1996-08-06 8:001998-07-09 8:001998-07-23
20、 8:001999-08-09 8:002000-07-17 8:002001-07-27 8:002001-08-02 8:002002-07-26 8:002003-08-01 8:002003-09-01 8:002004-07-16 8:002004-08-13 8:002006-09-16 8:002007-07-31 8:002007-08-27 8:002010-08-09 8:002010-08-22 8:002011-07-03 8:002011-08-19 8:002012-07-31 8:002013-07-10 8:002016-07-20 8:002016-08-25
21、 8:002017-06-25 8:002017-07-29 8:00峰现时间预报值1996-08-04 22:001998-07-09 10:001998-07-23 22:001999-08-09 1:002000-07-16 22:002001-07-27 20:002001-08-02 10:002002-07-26 6:002003-08-01 20:002003-08-31 9:002004-07-16 7:002004-08-13 15:002006-09-16 16:002007-08-02 15:002007-08-27 12:002010-08-09 18:002010-0
22、8-22 4:002011-07-04 4:002011-08-20 5:002012-07-31 23:002013-07-11 3:002016-07-21 5:002016-08-25 21:002017-06-25 18:002017-07-30 5:00实测值1996-08-04 17:001998-07-09 18:001998-07-24 8:001999-08-09 16:002000-07-17 14:002001-07-27 20:002001-08-02 4:002002-07-26 5:002003-08-01 14:002003-09-01 8:002004-07-1
23、6 18:002004-08-13 8:002006-09-16 2:002007-07-31 15:002007-08-27 19:002010-08-09 12:302010-08-21 22:302011-07-04 7:002011-08-20 5:002012-08-01 8:002013-07-10 13:002016-07-21 11:002016-08-25 23:002017-06-25 7:002017-07-30 7:00绝对误差5-8-10-15-160616-23-1171448-75.55.5-30-914-6-211-2允许误差171014101611661671
24、075911912141414915121414合格与否2.2匡门口水文站2.2.1断面基本情况匡门口水文站以上区间流域有4个水文站,即蔡家庄、石匣水库、刘家庄和匡门口水文站。区间流域内选用雨量站共计 13个,即东阳关、蔡家庄、松烟、仙人坪、偏城、刘家庄、匡门口、漳漕、紫罗、横岭、大佛头、天桥断、青塔雨量站。2.2.2预报方案构建预报方案设置 1 个方案输入:区间(控制面积5 060 km2),区间产汇流模型分别采用产流曲线(P_RWLL)和单位线(UH_B);雨量站控制权重采用泰森多边形法。方案计算步长为1 h,方案输出类型为河道流量(模型计算结果为流量,水位通过水位流量关系曲线进行反推)。
25、匡门口站预报结构,如图3所示。2.2.3模型参数成果(1)产流参数。土壤最大初损量 Im=180;12 个月的土壤含水量日衰减系数分别为 0.90、0.90、0.90、0.90、0.90、0.95、0.95、0.95、0.95、0.90、0.90、0.90;P+Pa-R相关性,详见表6。(2)汇流参数。匡门口水文站区间流域单位线,详见表7。(3)场次洪水合格率统计,详见表8。图3匡门口站预报结构杨欣磊,杨鹏:漳河流域洪水预报方案修编分析392023年7月表6匡门口水文站区间流域P+Pa-R相关性项目P+PaR序号1002300.33600.64100151202614037160481806.
26、59200101022015112402212260321328048143007015350100164001331745017518500220mm表7匡门口水文站区间流域单位线序号单位线序号单位线序号单位线序号单位线10181 074352495290201992636238538630206433722354794021588382075569502258939194565960235054018557517024435411785843802540542168593590263884316060261002734544156612411028324451496222120293284
27、61416317131623030847134641214404312894812765715525322824911666216676332695010467017901342575194680表8匡门口水文站率定期场次洪水洪峰洪量统计洪号19950807071995090402199608041619970704001997080208199807012219980710082000070611200007230720010727172003080205200308270720040813122005081717200608312020080630152010082215201009080
28、8201208020420130714002013072319201308011120130807202016072014201608041420160816172017072812合格率洪峰/(m3s-1)预报值76913 172136563491104391775010774125755962597221528587649011748823920/27=74.1%实测值921053 9101155740933454123562851449963507054812062429747775115105290相对误差/%-17.4-13.3-18.918.3-1.8-15-2.2-69.9-5-
29、24.7-19.425.9-48.626.31918-11.49.3-11.14.417.8-10.336.216.351.3-16.2-17.6合格与否洪量/亿m3预报值0.0720.1433.480.0540.0410.0260.0970.1630.0340.2220.0450.1390.0790.1610.0810.0280.0470.1340.1170.270.2760.1630.081.080.1730.0980.35719/27=70.4%实测值0.0660.1572.520.0460.0490.0320.1030.1840.0330.2380.0310.0980.0950.110
30、.0920.0180.0570.1990.080.2290.2680.1690.0850.9930.1440.2130.421相对误差/%9.1-8.938.117.4-16.3-18.7-5.8-11.43-6.745.241.8-16.846.4-1255.5-17.5-32.746.217.93-3.5-5.98.820-54-15.2合格与否海河水利402023.No.7洪号19950807071995090402199608041619970704001997080208199807012219980710082000070611200007230720010727172003080
31、2052003082707200408131220050817172006083120200806301520100822152010090808201208020420130714002013072319201308011120130807202016072014201608041420160816172017072812合格率起始时间1995-08-06 8:001995-09-03 8:001996-08-03 8:001997-07-03 8:001997-08-01 8:001998-06-30 8:001998-07-08 8:002000-07-05 8:002000-07-22
32、 8:002001-07-26 8:002003-08-01 8:002003-08-26 8:002004-08-12 8:002005-08-16 8:002006-08-30 8:002008-06-28 8:002010-08-21 8:002010-09-06 8:002012-07-30 8:002013-07-12 8:002013-07-22 8:002013-07-31 8:002013-08-07 8:002016-07-19 8:002016-08-04 8:002016-08-15 8:002017-07-27 8:0019/27=70.4%结束时间峰现时间预报值199
33、5-08-07 6:001995-09-04 4:001996-08-05 14:001997-07-04 4:001997-08-02 1:001998-07-01 23:001998-07-08 22:002000-07-06 4:002000-07-23 4:002001-07-28 22:002003-08-02 1:002003-08-27 4:002004-08-13 4:002005-08-17 21:002006-08-31 2:002008-06-29 22:002010-08-22 11:002010-09-07 21:002012-08-01 9:002013-07-13
34、 4:002013-07-23 20:002013-08-02 2:002013-08-08 9:002016-07-20 21:002016-08-05 4:002016-08-16 20:002017-07-28 4:00实测值1995-08-07 7:001995-09-04 2:001996-08-04 16:001997-07-04 0:001997-08-02 8:001998-07-01 22:001998-07-10 8:002000-07-06 11:002000-07-23 7:002001-07-27 17:002003-08-02 5:002003-08-27 7:00
35、2004-08-13 12:002005-08-17 17:002006-08-31 20:002008-06-30 15:002010-08-22 15:002010-09-08 8:002012-08-02 4:002013-07-14 00:002013-07-23 19:002013-08-01 11:002013-08-07 20:002016-07-20 14:002016-08-04 14:002016-08-16 17:002017-07-28 12:00绝对误差-1230471-34-7-329-4-3-84-18-17-4-11-19-20-315137143-8允许误差7
36、5957111487106781011179142012108492108合格与否表9匡门口水文站率定期场次洪水峰现时间统计h(4)方案评定。本次匡门口预报方案参数检验采用 19952017 年具有代表性的大、中、小洪水资料共27场次洪水资料(其中,最大场次洪水发生在1996年8月,洪峰流量为3 910 m3/s,洪量为2.52亿m3),率定的洪量合格率为70.4%、洪峰合格率为74.1%、峰现时间合格率为70.4%。率定结果,详见表89。2.3观台水文站2.3.1断面基本情况石梁、匡门口到观台水文站区间流域现有4个水文站,即石梁、匡门口、天桥断、观台水文站。区间流域内选用雨量站共计12个,即
37、石梁、实会、石城、五里后、白土、天桥断、匡门口、观台、东阳关、任村、郝赵、侯壁雨量站。2.3.2预报方案构建预报方案设置 3 个方案输入:石梁、匡门口观台区间(控制面积3 088 km2),区间产汇流模型分别采用产流曲线(P_RWLL)和单位线(UH_B);雨量站控制权重采用泰森多边形法;石梁流量过程,采用马斯京根河道流量分段连续演算(MSK)到观台;匡门口流量过程,采用马斯京根河道流量分段连续演算到观台。采用方案计算步长为 1 h,方案输出类型为河道流量(模型计算结果为流量,水位通过水位流量关系曲线进行反推)。预报方案结构,如图4所示。2.3.3模型参数成果(1)产流参数。土壤最大初损量Im
38、=180;12个月的土壤含水量日衰减系数分别为 0.90、0.90、0.90、0.90、0.90、0.95、0.95、0.95、0.95、0.90、0.90、0.90;图4观台站预报结构杨欣磊,杨鹏:漳河流域洪水预报方案修编分析412023年7月洪号1995070119199508071519960804181997080222199807101920000707102001072805200108022020030802082003083114200309210620040718062004080114200408140120050818082006090108200609170820070
39、803172007090208201008222320110704132011082114201109210820120803022013071408201307240220160719182016080419201608170120160826162017072819合格率洪峰/(m3s-1)预报值3811218 75245125328536136177225917953221886959931142465155621554003585 80427614412322922/31=71%实测值1721408 51046.112213748611311320796.470.266.2212139
40、86.262.27367.2100556149.21614003585 200444159126280相对误差/%121-13.62.8-2.42.513910.32056.68.7-5.612.5-19.94.2-36.7-20-5.127.469.6146-7.3-9.826-3.70011.6-37.8-9.4-2.4-18.2合格与否洪量/亿m3预报值0.092 70.113 16.812 00.041 00.166 40.275 00.422 80.215 40.143 00.408 10.168 60.083 20.088 90.247 70.134 10.117 00.062 5
41、0.160 10.191 60.158 80.093 00.088 90.120 70.291 20.656 20.572 11.287 60.349 70.226 20.212 60.303 822/31=71%实测值0.096 00.163 86.880 80.049 00.169 80.196 10.380 40.283 20.158 00.430 00.254 90.112 00.101 20.328 80.163 00.188 50.070 00.189 00.180 40.140 70.062 90.092 80.115 70.296 70.616 90.489 01.307 30
42、.295 80.165 60.240 00.370 6相对误差/%-3.4-31-1-16.3-240.211.1-23.9-9.5-5.1-33.9-25.7-12.2-24.7-17.7-37.9-10.7-15.36.212.947.9-4.24.3-1.96.417-1.518.236.6-11.4-18合格与否P+Pa-R相关性,详见表10。(2)汇流参数。观台水文站区间流域单位线,详见表11。(3)马斯京根河道流量分段连续演算模型参数,详见表12。(4)场次洪水合格率统计,详见表13。表10观台水文站区间流域P+Pa-R相关性mm项目P+PaR序号100240031000.9415
43、01.351803620077220138250309300601035090114001341245018413500234表11观台水文站区间流域单位线序号单位线序号单位线序号单位线1018345352129219280361631192021737144228211753813537022160391264302314340875002412041586502510042396052690430105852774440115652867450125452954135303044145203137155003233164553330173933425表12马斯京根模型参数河 道石梁观台匡门
44、口观台X0.0010.001KK11MP85表13观台水文站率定期场次洪水洪峰洪量统计海河水利422023.No.7洪号199507011919950807151996080418199708022219980710192000070710200107280520010802202003080208200308311420030921062004071806200408011420040814012005081808200609010820060917082007080317200709020820100822232011070413201108211420110921082012080302
45、2013071408201307240220160719182016080419201608170120160826162017072819合格率起始时间1995-06-30 8:001995-08-06 8:001996-08-02 8:001997-08-01 8:001998-07-09 8:002000-07-06 8:002001-07-27 8:002001-08-02 8:002003-08-01 8:002003-08-29 8:002003-09-20 8:002004-07-17 8:002004-07-31 8:002004-08-13 8:002005-08-16 8:
46、002006-08-31 8:002006-09-16 8:002007-08-02 8:002007-09-01 8:002010-08-21 8:002011-07-03 8:002011-08-20 8:002011-09-20 8:002012-08-02 8:002013-07-13 8:002013-07-22 8:002016-07-18 8:002016-08-04 8:002016-08-16 8:002016-08-25 8:002017-07-27 8:0025/31=80.6%结束时间1995-07-01 8:001995-08-07 8:001996-08-06 8:
47、001997-08-02 8:001998-07-10 8:002000-07-07 8:002001-07-28 8:002001-08-03 8:002003-08-02 8:002003-08-30 8:002003-09-21 8:002004-07-18 8:002004-08-01 8:002004-08-14 8:002005-08-17 8:002006-09-01 8:002006-09-17 8:002007-08-03 8:002007-09-02 8:002010-08-22 8:002011-07-04 8:002011-08-21 8:002011-09-21 8:
48、002012-08-03 8:002013-07-14 8:002013-07-23 8:002016-07-20 8:002016-08-05 8:002016-08-17 8:002016-08-26 8:002017-07-28 8:00峰现时间预报值1995-07-01 22:001995-08-07 15:001996-08-04 23:001997-08-02 19:001998-07-10 18:002000-07-06 21:002001-07-28 15:002001-08-03 1:002003-08-02 10:002003-08-30 1:002003-09-21 8:
49、002004-07-18 1:002004-08-01 19:002004-08-14 3:002005-08-18 4:002006-09-01 6:002006-09-17 1:002007-08-03 12:002007-09-02 1:002010-08-22 17:002011-07-05 2:002011-08-21 1:002011-09-21 1:002012-08-03 1:002013-07-14 3:002013-07-24 6:002016-07-19 17:002016-08-05 1:002016-08-17 4:002016-08-26 1:002017-07-2
50、8 22:00实测值1995-07-01 19:001995-08-07 15:001996-08-04 18:001997-08-02 22:001998-07-10 19:002000-07-06 23:002001-07-28 5:302001-08-02 20:002003-08-02 8:002003-08-31 14:002003-09-21 6:002004-07-18 6:002004-08-01 14:002004-08-14 1:002005-08-18 8:002006-09-01 8:002006-09-17 8:002007-08-03 14:002007-09-02