2022年科技预测报告.pdf
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1、DECEMBER 2021TRENDS&INNOVATIONS SHAPING THE GLOBAL TECH SECTOR Important disclosures appear at the end of this report.GP Bullhound Corporate Finance Ltd and GP Bullhound Asset Management Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRA.GP
2、Bullhound Hong Kong Limited is authorised and regulated by the Securities&Futures Commission.2Contents04THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND24EXPERT VIEWLiz Wessel,WayUp05TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 202206RECAP OF 2021 PREDICTIONS08SNAPSHOT OF WHATS SHAPING TECHFOR 202210PREDICTION 1Creating a new economy12PREDICT
3、ION 2The rise of decentralised finance(DeFi)14PREDICTION 3Technology supercharging supply chains16Peyman Zamani,LogicbrokerEXPERT VIEW18PREDICTION 4The next ARMs race20PREDICTION 5The new virtual playground22PREDICTION 6Technology driving diversity,equity and inclusion26PREDICTION 7Wearables strike
4、back,powered by artificialintelligence28PREDICTION 8The global semiconductor shortage28PREDICTION 9Artificial intelligence automating healthcare atall levels30EXPERT VIEWJason Krantz,Definitive Healthcare32PREDICTION 10The future of paymentA LOOK BACK AT PASTPREDICTIONS3440METHODOLOGY41DISCLAIMER3Th
5、e viewFROM GP BULLHOUNDAuthorsIn its 15th year,our Technology Predictions report analyses how the latest trends and the leading visionaries in theseecosystems are shaping our future.Our methodology in selecting the coming years predictions is shaped directly by ourexperience in working with the worl
6、ds leading entrepreneurs and cutting-edge technologies,balanced with unique marketinsight gathered across our global network.2021 has witnessed record-breaking growth in global technology M&A activity,driven by the need for companies to staycompetitive and innovative during the unprecedented times w
7、e are in,which is considerably changing consumer habits.Companies are also rethinking their supply chains due to shifting geopolitical relations,trade wars,and environmental concerns.Driven by critical component shortages,such as semiconductors,and internalisation of supply chains,the global supply
8、chainlandscape looks unprecedented.While the momentum of the tech world shows no sign of slowing,it is of tremendousimportance to understand and navigate regulation wisely as it will continue to be the theme that factors how everything movesforward.Per RomanMANAGING PARTNERAlec DaffernerPARTNERJenni
9、fer EllerVICE PRESIDENT,INSIGHTSVICE PRESIDENTOkan InaltayGarrett VazVICE PRESIDENTGerry KelliherASSOCIATEMaria LazarevaANALYST,INSIGHTSDaniel RobertsANALYSTJoseph WilkANALYSTEren YagmurluANALYSTYinzheng LiuANALYSTTHE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND4At GP Bullhound we are proud to work with innovative,world-
10、leading companies and their visionaries transforminginnovative ideas into reality.We hope our 2022 tech predictions help you to navigate the opportunities and challenges tocome.STATE OF THE MARKETCREATING A NEW ECONOMYTHE RISE OF DECENTRALISEDFINANCE(DEFI)Creators taking the baton from gigBroader in
11、stitutional uptake to pave the way formainstream adoptionTHE NEW VIRTUAL PLAYGROUNDDeveloping the next generation of interactionWEARABLES STRIKE BACK,POWERED BYARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Wearables adoption extendedTHE NEXT ARMS RACEThe proliferation of connected devices is outpacingsupply chainsTHE GLO
12、BALSEMICONDUCTOR SHORTAGEARM-based processors will power the artificial intelligence/machine learning revolutionTECHNOLOGY SUPERCHARGINGSUPPLY CHAINSTHE FUTURE OF PAYMENTSupply chain crises force businesses to look to technologyfor new efficienciesBuy Now,Pay Later(BNPL)is here to stayARTIFICIAL INT
13、ELLIGENCE AUTOMATINGHEALTHCARE AT ALL LEVELSTECHNOLOGY DRIVING DIVERSITY,EQUITY AND INCLUSIONIndustry-leading solutions are leveraging artificial intelligenceSoftware changing workplace demographicsPREDICTION 1PREDICTION 2PREDICTION 3PREDICTION 4PREDICTION 6PREDICTION 5PREDICTION 7PREDICTION 8PREDIC
14、TION 9PREDICTION 10THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND5Over the course of almost two decades,GP Bullhounds TechnologyPredictions report has established a reputation as an industry-leadinganalysis of the trends and innovations shaping the global technologysector.OUR 2022 PREDICTIONS2021 PREDICTIONSRecap of GP
15、 BullhoundEdtech continued its surge in 2021 as schools realisedthe benefits of the optionality that digital learningprovides to students and teachers.Large school districtssuch as Miami-Dade County in Florida signed high-profiledeals with well-known edtech platform PowerSchool.Large enterprises hav
16、e even supported schools to adoptmore tech-based learning;US wireless network operator,Verizon,committed$3bn+to help schools increaseconnectivity and provide devices for students.Despiteconcerns about the Chinese governments restrictions onthe local edtech market,broadly speaking,digitallearning sho
17、uld continue surging given the formats clearbenefits.Healthcare shifted the most of all sectors in 2020 due tohealthtech,and continued its dramatic change in 2021,with increased buy-ins from health organisationsworldwide to reap the benefits of tech-enabledhealthcare.In the US,this was illustrated b
18、y ClevelandClinics partnership with IBM to enable high-performancecomputing,artificial intelligence,and quantum computingin healthcare.UK-based healthtech provider,BabylonHealth,also announced a collaboration with RwandasNational ID Agency(NIDA)to expand the reach of itsprimary care services in the
19、country.Thesecollaborations are expected to continue in the comingyear.Online commerce continued to grow in 2021,up 9%fromQ2 2020 to Q2 2021.Buy Online,Pick-up In Store(BOPIS)also continued to grow due to more e-commercebut also changing consumer sentiment.A Shipstationsurvey indicated that 62%of re
20、spondents now expectretailers to offer curbside pick-up,and 71%expect BOPISto be permanently available.This shift in sentimentproves that the I want it now e-commerce mindset islikely going to be a permanent commerce fixture.(1)Largely driven by those aged 45-64,the number of hoursspent gaming per w
21、eek in the US hit 16.5 in 2021,upfrom 12.7 in 2019 and 14.8 in 2020.In 2019,65%ofconsumers in this age group played for c.9 hours perweek;in 2020,69%played for c.12 hours;and in 2021,75%gamed for c.16 hours.A large share of thisgaming was on the Roblox and Fortnite platforms,whichhave built virtual
22、worlds for individuals to connect,andFacebook is trying to replicate.The March Through TimeMartin Luther King Jr.event,built in Fortnite inpartnership with Time Magazine,gathered over 8.1 millionplayers.More interactions are now virtual.(2)(2)(3)EDUCATION IN THE21ST CENTURYTHE NEW PATIENT DOCTORRELA
23、TIONSHIPYESI WANT IT NOWE-COMMERCETHE NEXT SOCIAL NETWORKYESYESYES6RECAP OF 2021The ultimate winner of 2021 was the consumer.From online shopping,payments and fitness,to howcompanies fought to understand and retain us,technology kept companies alive and permanentlychanging our behaviour patterns.Her
24、es a quick look at what we got right.Many US states have followed California,enacting wide-ranging digital privacy laws to protect consumers.Thisfurther stoked technology companies,such as Apple,toimprove the privacy functionality on their platforms.Inearly 2021,Apple introduced an important update
25、to itsoperating system that streamlines how developers ofexternal apps,such as Facebook,track Apples users.Those users must explicitly agree to have their datacollected.Consumers still do not have full control,however,as other platforms,such as Google andFacebook,are not fully transparent on data pr
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