2025钢铁和水泥过渡的供需措施（英）.docx

Demand and Supply Measures for the Steel and Cement Transition
The case for international co-ordination

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

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Demand and Supply Measures for the Steel and Cement Transition The case for international co-ordination
Abstract

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Abstract

A massive scale-up of markets for transformative near-zero emissions steel and cement is needed to achieve internationally agreed net zero goals. Yet early movers on both the supply- and demand-side – that is, material producers and consumers – face substantial barriers related to high costs and risks, among other factors. This has led to relatively slow market growth for near-zero emissions materials, at a moment when reinvesting in long-lived high-emissions production could have repercussions for governments to achieve their stated climate goals. Policy makers have the opportunity to play a decisive role in unlocking markets for near-zero emissions materials. Governments are well-positioned to reduce risk during market formation, and targeted policy measures can provide the certainty that is currently lacking in markets. Furthermore, international collaboration will be vital to make the transition faster and less costly, given the international nature of markets for industrial products, the need for large and capital-intensive technology demonstrations for near-zero emission production, and the larger demand signals that can be created by pooling commitments across borders.
This report – produced at the request of the Climate Club yet generally applicable to policy discussions for industrial decarbonisation – offers considerations and options for governments to scale up markets for near-zero and low-emissions steel and cement, while concurrently reducing reliance on high-emissions materials. It makes the case for why both demand-side and supply-side measures are important to kick-start markets for near-zero emissions materials, summarising progress to date and highlighting gaps that rationalise government action. Key policy options are outlined, illustrating the variety of measures available to governments as they implement strategies tailored to their particular circumstances. The value of international co-ordination on such measures is discussed, and an initial illustrative proposal is elaborated for those governments that may wish to consider coming together around a collective pledge for scaling up the market share of near-zero emissions materials.

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Demand and Supply Measures for the Steel and Cement Transition The case for international co-ordination
Acknowledgements

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Acknowledgements

Demand and supply measures for the steel and cement transition: The case for international co-ordination was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy (ETP) Division of the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The project was designed and directed by Timur Gül, IEA Chief Energy Technology Officer. Araceli Fernandez Pales, Head of the Technology Innovation Unit, provided strategic guidance throughout the development of the project.
The principal IEA authors were: Andrew Ruttinger, Tiffany Vass, and Isabel Geppert.
The development of this report also benefitted from contributions from other IEA colleagues (in alphabetical order): Yasmine Arsalane, Leonardo Collina, Mathilde Fajardy, Alexandre Gouy, Pol Guardia Calsina, Martin Kueppers, Peter Levi, Antonella Pasetto, Nicholas Salmon, and Richard Simon. Per-Anders Widell provided essential support throughout the process. Lizzie Sayer edited the manuscript.
Thanks also to Curtis Brainard, Poeli Bojorquez, Astrid Dumond, Grace Gordon, Jethro Mullen, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin, and Lucile Wall of the Communications and Digital Office.
This report has been prepared as a deliverable under the Climate Club Work Programme.
The work benefited from collaboration with Ramboll and Climate Group on a questionnaire to steel and concrete buyers conducted in July 2024.
The work could not have been achieved without the financial support provided by the Government of Germany.
Peer reviewers provided essential feedback and input to improve the quality of the report. They include: Rachel Ahrens, Malte Bornkamm, Michael Büchl, Benedikt Dengler, Stela Ivanova, Johanna Wehkamp (Government of Germany), Jelena Aleksic and Daniel Boero Vargas (World Economic Forum), Hiroyuki Anzai, Naoki Aoki, Daisuke Ichimura, and Yoshito Izumi (Japan Cement Association), Jasmine Bascombe, Adam Cohen, and Lorenza Micaletti (Government of the United Kingdom), Chris Bataille (IDDRI), Eleanor Batilliet, Helen Rolfing, and Aylin Shawkat (Agora Industry), Francesca Bazzocchi (Government of Italy), Nikolas Black and Nick Gillard (Government of New Zealand), Agnes Borg and Jesper Kansbod (SSAB), Edward Boyd, Elliot Mari, and Marc Moutinho (Mission Possible

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Partnership), Clare Broadbent and Asa Ekdahl (World Steel Association), Jen Carson (Climate Group), Joseph Cordonnier, Stephan Raes, and Deger Saygin (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), Walker Darke, Peter Hemingway, Andreea Nicoleta Miu, Sarbojit Pal, Soledad Reeve, Fiona Skinner, and Hugo Thomas Salamanca Dejour (UNIDO), Tuğba Dinçbaş (Government of Türkiye), John Dulac (Saint-Gobain), Taghareed Elgoweily (Government of Egypt), Leah Ellis (Sublime Systems), Jakob Embacher and Sophie Praniess (Government of Austria), Gerhard Endemann (WV Stahl), Samuel Flückiger (Thyssenkrupp), Christina Gamboa (World Green Buildings Council), Javier García Monge and Ambrosio Yobánolo (Government of Chile), Rossana Gresia (Government of Belgium), Višnja Grgasović and Mirna Maravić (Government of Croatia), Will Hall (Pooled fund on International Energy), Shivakumar Kuppuswamy (ResponsibleSteel), Boyoung Kang (Government of Korea), Johanna Lehne, Pallavi Singh, and Julia Skorupska (E3G), Yinghao Liu (Baosteel), Paul Pulickal Mathew (Climate Investment Funds), Andrew Minson (Global Cement and Concrete Association), Alan Monaghan (Net Zero Industries Mission), Joe Morrisroe (S-Curve Economics), Fabio Passaro (Climate Bonds Initiative), Nazareth Rojas (Government of Costa Rica), Anil Sawhney (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors), Markus Steinhäusler (Voestalpine), and Emily Walport (Arup).
The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgements it contains. The work reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat but does not necessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries, Climate Club members, the Climate Club Secretariat, or of any particular funder or collaborator. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA.

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Demand and Supply Measures for the Steel and Cement Transition The case for international co-ordination
Table of contents

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Table of contents

Executive summary 7
Introduction 14
Achieving net zero emissions by mid-century in cement and steel sectors 14
Rationale to consider international co-ordination on demand- and supply-side measures . 16
Demand-side measures 21
The rationale for demand-side measures 21
Progress to date and lessons learned 30
Policy options to accelerate progress 38
Supply-side measures 43
The rationale for supply-side measures 43
Progress to date and lessons learned 56
Policy options to accelerate progress 62
Potential role of a collective pledge in decarbonising industry 67
Opportunities for a collective industry pledge on demand and supply under the Climate Club 71
Illustrative pledge proposal for discussion 73
Considerations around a collective pledge 74
Developing policies to implement pledges 77
Annex 80
Abbreviations and acronyms 80
Units of measures 80

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Demand and Supply Measures for the Steel and Cement Transition The case for international co-ordination
Executive summary

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Executive summary

The seeds for producing and using near-zero emissions materials have been planted, but acceleration is needed
The industry sector requires a massive scale-up of markets for transformative near-zero emissions materials to contribute to the achievement of internationally- agreed government objectives for net zero emissions. Such scale-up requires the production and use of these materials to grow from essentially zero today to capture nearly the entire market within the next few decades, shifting away from high-emissions conventional production and demand. The steel and cement sectors account for 14% of global energy and process-related emissions on a direct basis, making them central to the decarbonisation challenge.
First mover producers of near-zero emissions materials are beginning to position themselves to compete in such markets, including through the development of definitions, certification and labelling systems for near-zero emissions steel and cement – in some cases through collaboration with government – like the Low Emissions Steel Standard initiated in Germany, the voluntary CO2 standard of the China Iron and Steel Association, and the Global Cement and Concrete Association’s definitions proposal. Yet, while progress is underway, it has not yet advanced at the speed and scale needed: announced capacity for near-zero emissions iron-based steel production and cement production by 2030 amounts to only about 10 Mt and 35 Mt, respectively, equivalent to 10% of that required in the same year on a pathway to net zero emissions by mid-century.
On the demand-side, some material-consuming companies – like auto manufacturers and construction companies – are already committed to procure near-zero emissions products, indicating a willingness from some buyers to pay a price premium. The quantities are so far quite small – offtake agreements for near- zero emissions steel for which quantities are publicly disclosed account for only a little under 2 Mt per year of demand by 2030. Material purchasers have announced a willingness to purchase an additional 3 Mt through the First Movers Coalition Near-Zero Steel 2030 Demand Challenge and the RMI Sustainable Steel Buyers Platform, although this demand has not yet been met. Together, this nearly 5 Mt of demand is estimated to have a combined value of roughly USD 3.5 billion. Further demand that has not yet been fulfilled may already be much larger but is difficult to quantify outside of such initiatives. Nevertheless, offtake agreements so far lack regional diversity and remain too small to provide the certainty needed for a sufficient number of producers to take on the risk of early deployment.

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Despite relatively modest beginnings, markets have the potential to grow substantially in the coming years. By way of example, the global market value of near-zero emissions steel alone would reach close to USD 300 billion (about 20% of today’s total steel industry global market value) by 2035 if markets grow at a pace commensurate with government climate pledges. By 2035, this market value would reach close to USD 550 billion on a pathway compatible with reaching net zero emissions by mid-century. The market value for near-zero emissions cement could reach up to USD 100 billion by 2035, depending on the policy settings.

Policy action is vital to establish international markets for near-zero emissions material production and use
Early adoption of near-zero emissions materials and production technologies requires overcoming a number of barriers, most notably cost. Early offerings of near-zero emissions steel and cement carry a price premium resulting from an estimated 10% to 125% higher production cost compared to conventional production, depending on regional and technological factors. The international nature of industrial markets, which means that producers are trade-exposed, further accentuates the risks for the first private sector investors.
Against this backdrop, targeted demand and supply policy measures implemented by governments globally could help push markets for near-zero emissions steel and cement over important thresholds. For example, past experience suggests that at around 1% of market share, technologies typically have sufficient maturity to have a tangible effect on supply chains. This makes wider adoption afterwards more straightforward due to the experience from early projects and economies of scale in production that help lower cost. Reaching these thresholds can take up to several decades, especially for large and site-tailored technologies typical of industry. As industry players look for new ways to secure a competitive advantage in the currently challenging market context – and with mid-century only one investment cycle away for long-lived industrial plants – government support could make the difference in spurring growth for near-zero emissions materials.

Demand-side measures are critical to provide certainty given the higher costs and risk of early deployment
Government measures have a particularly important role to play in the near term for scaling up markets: well-designed targeted demand-side measures can create early lead markets for near-zero emissions materials, paving the way to more widespread market opportunities thereafter. Governments are well-positioned to help buffer the higher risk through targeted policies during market form